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UPDATE: The Ohio State Buckeyes And The Unprojectables is now up at the mothership.
What do we know about the Ohio State Buckeyes at this point, just over a week (!!!) from the beginning of the college football season? They have a deep backfield that will become deeper when Boom Herron returns from suspension. They have a deep offensive line that will become deeper when Mike Adams returns from suspension. They have recruited circles around the rest of the Big Ten. They have two potentially outstanding defensive ends and an outstanding young batch of linemen. They have a host of former blue-chip options at linebacker. Barring an explosion in self-inflicted interceptions, they may have a rather maintainable turnover margin. They have played at a level higher than that of both Oklahoma and Alabama over the last four full years.
They have a lot, in other words, especially for a down Big Ten. They also have a black hole at quarterback, untested receivers (at least until Devier Posey returns from suspension), all-but-guaranteed regression in the secondary and an interim coach who is not that much older than I am. They have more talent, and more question marks, than anybody in the conference. With no suspensions and their old head coach, they would have ranked, at worst, third in the country in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 projections. With all the drama and headaches, they fall to 15th. And they're still potentially the best team in the conference.
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I've had a lot of fun figuring out different uses for the Adj. Score and Adj. Record measures I came up with at the end of last season. I think there is still some confusion as to what these measures are telling us, and that's my fault, so let's try one more time: for every game a team plays, Adj. Score tells us how they would have fared against a perfectly average team with a perfectly average number of breaks. It seems people get stuck on the idea that, for every game, there is one winner and one loser, even with Adj. Score. Not the case. If two good teams play well against each other, the odds are good that they will both come away with an Adj. Win. On the flip side, of course, if two poor teams play poorly against each other, the odds are good that neither would have beaten an 'average' team in said game, and they both end up with Adj. Losses.
With that out of the way, I want to look at what these measures can tell us about trends. Below is a list of FBS teams ranked in order of their cumulative Adj. Record from 2005-10. In theory, it tells us a couple of different things: 1) which teams have piled up wins against lesser opponents and 2) which good teams have been most consistently strong. Being that this is Ohio State Day, I assume you know where I'm going with this.
As we see, in the last six years, Ohio State has played poorly enough to lose to an "average" team just four times ... by far the best Adj. Record in the country. Tressel Ball serves its purpose, even if it is not the most lively, exciting brand of football the world has ever seen. We'll see if Fickell Ball fares as well.
FBS Teams Ranked by Cumulative Adj. Record (2005-10) |
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Rk | Team | Real W | Real L | % | Adj. W | Adj. L | % | Diff |
1 | Ohio State | 66 | 11 | 85.7% | 73 | 4 | 94.8% | +7 |
2 | Florida | 65 | 15 | 81.3% | 71 | 9 | 88.8% | +6 |
3 | Oklahoma | 62 | 19 | 76.5% | 70 | 11 | 86.4% | +8 |
4 | LSU | 62 | 17 | 78.5% | 68 | 11 | 86.1% | +6 |
5 | USC | 63 | 15 | 80.8% | 67 | 11 | 85.9% | +4 |
6 | TCU | 66 | 11 | 85.7% | 66 | 11 | 85.7% | 0 |
7 | Boise State | 70 | 9 | 88.6% | 67 | 12 | 84.8% | -3 |
8 | Texas | 63 | 15 | 80.8% | 65 | 13 | 83.3% | +2 |
9 | Oregon | 58 | 19 | 75.3% | 64 | 13 | 83.1% | +6 |
10 | Virginia Tech | 63 | 18 | 77.8% | 67 | 14 | 82.7% | +4 |
11 | BYU | 56 | 21 | 72.7% | 63 | 14 | 81.8% | +7 |
12 | West Virginia | 60 | 17 | 77.9% | 62 | 15 | 80.5% | +2 |
13 | Texas Tech | 54 | 23 | 70.1% | 61 | 16 | 79.2% | +7 |
14 | Alabama | 59 | 20 | 74.7% | 62 | 17 | 78.5% | +3 |
15 | Penn State | 58 | 19 | 75.3% | 60 | 17 | 77.9% | +2 |
16 | Georgia | 54 | 24 | 69.2% | 60 | 18 | 76.9% | +6 |
17 | Auburn | 55 | 22 | 71.4% | 58 | 19 | 75.3% | +3 |
18 | Arkansas | 44 | 32 | 57.9% | 57 | 19 | 75.0% | +13 |
19 | Iowa | 47 | 29 | 61.8% | 55 | 21 | 72.4% | +8 |
20 | Boston College | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | 57 | 22 | 72.2% | +3 |
21 | Utah | 57 | 20 | 74.0% | 54 | 23 | 70.1% | -3 |
22 | Michigan State | 42 | 33 | 56.0% | 52 | 23 | 69.3% | +10 |
23 | Clemson | 47 | 31 | 60.3% | 54 | 24 | 69.2% | +7 |
24 | Oklahoma State | 47 | 29 | 61.8% | 52 | 24 | 68.4% | +5 |
25 | Missouri | 55 | 24 | 69.6% | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | -1 |
Full list after the jump. As we'll see, conference mates Wisconsin have gotten away with laying quite a few eggs over the years, particularly early in the season. By October, the Badgers have typically started to roll.
Rk | Team | Real W | Real L | % | Adj. W | Adj. L | % | Diff |
26 | Florida State | 48 | 31 | 60.8% | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | +6 |
27 | Wisconsin | 59 | 19 | 75.6% | 53 | 25 | 67.9% | -6 |
28 | Pittsburgh | 43 | 31 | 58.1% | 50 | 24 | 67.6% | +7 |
29 | South Carolina | 44 | 33 | 57.1% | 52 | 25 | 67.5% | +8 |
30 | California | 47 | 29 | 61.8% | 51 | 25 | 67.1% | +4 |
31 | Nebraska | 51 | 28 | 64.6% | 53 | 26 | 67.1% | +2 |
32 | Hawaii | 51 | 29 | 63.8% | 53 | 27 | 66.3% | +2 |
33 | Oregon State | 46 | 30 | 60.5% | 50 | 26 | 65.8% | +4 |
34 | Georgia Tech | 49 | 30 | 62.0% | 51 | 28 | 64.6% | +2 |
35 | Michigan | 42 | 33 | 56.0% | 48 | 27 | 64.0% | +6 |
36 | South Florida | 48 | 29 | 62.3% | 49 | 28 | 63.6% | +1 |
37 | Nevada | 51 | 27 | 65.4% | 49 | 29 | 62.8% | -2 |
38 | Louisville | 43 | 31 | 58.1% | 46 | 28 | 62.2% | +3 |
39 | Tennessee | 42 | 34 | 55.3% | 47 | 29 | 61.8% | +5 |
40 | Notre Dame | 43 | 32 | 57.3% | 46 | 29 | 61.3% | +3 |
41 | Miami | 44 | 32 | 57.9% | 46 | 30 | 60.5% | +2 |
42 | Tulsa | 54 | 25 | 68.4% | 47 | 32 | 59.5% | -7 |
43 | Cincinnati | 49 | 27 | 64.5% | 45 | 31 | 59.2% | -4 |
44 | Arizona State | 39 | 35 | 52.7% | 43 | 31 | 58.1% | +4 |
45 | Rutgers | 48 | 28 | 63.2% | 44 | 32 | 57.9% | -4 |
46 | Houston | 47 | 31 | 60.3% | 45 | 33 | 57.7% | -2 |
47 | Illinois | 28 | 45 | 38.4% | 42 | 31 | 57.5% | +14 |
48 | Texas A&M | 40 | 35 | 53.3% | 41 | 34 | 54.7% | +1 |
49 | Arizona | 37 | 37 | 50.0% | 40 | 34 | 54.1% | +3 |
50 | Connecticut | 42 | 33 | 56.0% | 40 | 35 | 53.3% | -2 |
51 | Kansas | 41 | 33 | 55.4% | 39 | 35 | 52.7% | -2 |
52 | Virginia | 33 | 40 | 45.2% | 37 | 36 | 50.7% | +4 |
53 | Maryland | 39 | 36 | 52.0% | 38 | 37 | 50.7% | -1 |
54 | UCLA | 38 | 37 | 50.7% | 38 | 37 | 50.7% | 0 |
55 | Southern Miss | 45 | 33 | 57.7% | 39 | 39 | 50.0% | -6 |
56 | Air Force | 42 | 33 | 56.0% | 37 | 38 | 49.3% | -5 |
57 | Purdue | 34 | 40 | 45.9% | 36 | 38 | 48.6% | +2 |
58 | Fresno State | 43 | 34 | 55.8% | 37 | 40 | 48.1% | -6 |
59 | Stanford | 35 | 38 | 47.9% | 35 | 38 | 47.9% | 0 |
60 | North Carolina | 36 | 38 | 48.6% | 35 | 39 | 47.3% | -1 |
61 | Troy | 45 | 30 | 60.0% | 35 | 40 | 46.7% | -10 |
62 | Kansas State | 35 | 38 | 47.9% | 34 | 39 | 46.6% | -1 |
63 | Navy | 52 | 26 | 66.7% | 36 | 42 | 46.2% | -16 |
64 | Central Florida | 45 | 33 | 57.7% | 36 | 42 | 46.2% | -9 |
65 | N.C. State | 35 | 39 | 47.3% | 34 | 40 | 45.9% | -1 |
66 | Central Michigan | 47 | 31 | 60.3% | 35 | 43 | 44.9% | -12 |
67 | Northern Illinois | 40 | 37 | 51.9% | 34 | 43 | 44.2% | -6 |
68 | Minnesota | 30 | 45 | 40.0% | 33 | 42 | 44.0% | +3 |
69 | Baylor | 27 | 45 | 37.5% | 29 | 43 | 40.3% | +2 |
70 | Wake Forest | 40 | 35 | 53.3% | 30 | 45 | 40.0% | -10 |
71 | East Carolina | 44 | 34 | 56.4% | 31 | 47 | 39.7% | -13 |
72 | Ohio | 40 | 36 | 52.6% | 30 | 46 | 39.5% | -10 |
73 | Kentucky | 39 | 37 | 51.3% | 30 | 46 | 39.5% | -9 |
74 | Colorado State | 26 | 47 | 35.6% | 28 | 45 | 38.4% | +2 |
75 | Northwestern | 41 | 34 | 54.7% | 28 | 47 | 37.3% | -13 |
76 | Mississippi State | 32 | 41 | 43.8% | 27 | 46 | 37.0% | -5 |
77 | Ole Miss | 32 | 41 | 43.8% | 27 | 46 | 37.0% | -5 |
78 | Washington | 23 | 50 | 31.5% | 26 | 47 | 35.6% | +3 |
79 | SMU | 28 | 46 | 37.8% | 26 | 48 | 35.1% | -2 |
80 | Western Michigan | 40 | 33 | 54.8% | 25 | 48 | 34.2% | -15 |
81 | Bowling Green | 33 | 40 | 45.2% | 25 | 48 | 34.2% | -8 |
82 | Ball State | 34 | 40 | 45.9% | 25 | 49 | 33.8% | -9 |
83 | UTEP | 32 | 41 | 43.8% | 23 | 50 | 31.5% | -9 |
84 | Colorado | 28 | 46 | 37.8% | 23 | 51 | 31.1% | -5 |
85 | Miami (Ohio) |
28 | 46 | 37.8% | 23 | 51 | 31.1% | -5 |
86 | Arkansas State | 31 | 41 | 43.1% | 22 | 50 | 30.6% | -9 |
87 | Vanderbilt | 25 | 47 | 34.7% | 22 | 50 | 30.6% | -3 |
88 | Toledo | 35 | 38 | 47.9% | 22 | 51 | 30.1% | -13 |
89 | Washington State | 20 | 52 | 27.8% | 21 | 51 | 29.2% | +1 |
90 | Middle Tennessee | 37 | 37 | 50.0% | 21 | 53 | 28.4% | -16 |
91 | Marshall | 28 | 44 | 38.9% | 20 | 52 | 27.8% | -8 |
92 | Louisiana Tech | 32 | 41 | 43.8% | 20 | 53 | 27.4% | -12 |
93 | San Diego State | 28 | 45 | 38.4% | 20 | 53 | 27.4% | -8 |
94 | Akron | 25 | 48 | 34.2% | 20 | 53 | 27.4% | -5 |
95 | Wyoming | 29 | 43 | 40.3% | 19 | 53 | 26.4% | -10 |
96 | Florida Atlantic | 31 | 42 | 42.5% | 19 | 54 | 26.0% | -12 |
97 | Iowa State | 28 | 45 | 38.4% | 19 | 54 | 26.0% | -9 |
98 | New Mexico | 27 | 46 | 37.0% | 19 | 54 | 26.0% | -8 |
99 | UAB | 23 | 48 | 32.4% | 18 | 53 | 25.4% | -5 |
100 | Indiana | 28 | 44 | 38.9% | 18 | 54 | 25.0% | -10 |
101 | Syracuse | 22 | 50 | 30.6% | 18 | 54 | 25.0% | -4 |
102 | Rice | 27 | 46 | 37.0% | 18 | 55 | 24.7% | -9 |
103 | Memphis | 25 | 49 | 33.8% | 17 | 57 | 23.0% | -8 |
104 | Kent State | 24 | 47 | 33.8% | 16 | 55 | 22.5% | -8 |
105 | Temple | 27 | 45 | 37.5% | 16 | 56 | 22.2% | -11 |
106 | UL-Monroe | 30 | 41 | 42.3% | 15 | 56 | 21.1% | -15 |
107 | Army | 24 | 48 | 33.3% | 15 | 57 | 20.8% | -9 |
108 | UL-Lafayette | 30 | 41 | 42.3% | 13 | 58 | 18.3% | -17 |
109 | Florida International | 21 | 51 | 29.2% | 13 | 59 | 18.1% | -8 |
110 | Buffalo | 23 | 50 | 31.5% | 13 | 60 | 17.8% | -10 |
111 | Tulane | 19 | 52 | 26.8% | 12 | 59 | 16.9% | -7 |
112 | Duke | 14 | 57 | 19.7% | 12 | 59 | 16.9% | -2 |
113 | North Texas | 13 | 58 | 18.3% | 12 | 59 | 16.9% | -1 |
114 | Western Kentucky | 11 | 37 | 22.9% | 8 | 40 | 16.7% | -3 |
115 | Idaho | 22 | 51 | 30.1% | 12 | 61 | 16.4% | -10 |
116 | UNLV | 18 | 54 | 25.0% | 11 | 61 | 15.3% | -7 |
117 | San Jose State | 26 | 47 | 35.6% | 11 | 62 | 15.1% | -15 |
118 | Utah State | 17 | 54 | 23.9% | 9 | 62 | 12.7% | -8 |
119 | New Mexico State | 17 | 57 | 23.0% | 9 | 65 | 12.2% | -8 |
120 | Eastern Michigan | 15 | 56 | 21.1% | 8 | 63 | 11.3% | -7 |
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