So Cincinnati returns 11 defensive starters. That's probably a good thing, right? But how good? And how much can a bad defense improve in one offseason just because of experience? Let's take a look, shall we?
| Average Change In Def. F/+, Last Three Years | ||
| Starters Returning |
N | Avg Chg in Def. F/+ |
| 1 | 1 | -12.4% |
| 2 | 4 | -10.9% |
| 3 | 10 | -8.4% |
| 4 | 32 | -2.1% |
| 5 | 53 | -1.1% |
| 6 | 69 | -0.5% |
| 7 | 85 | 1.1% |
| 8 | 56 | 1.5% |
| 9 | 37 | 4.2% |
| 10 | 9 | 6.0% |
| 11 | 3 | 5.4% |
So basically, if you return between five and eight starters, you are likely not going to change much, but three or fewer is a problem, and nine or more is a good thing.
Now, let's break it out by quality of the defense. Below is the same data broken out into four categories: defenses whose Def. F/+ was minus-10% or worse, defenses between zero and minus-9%, defenses between zero and plus-9%, and defenses who were plus-10% or better. For reference, Cincy's Def. F/+ was minus-6.4% last year.
| Average Change In Def. F/+ by Quality of Defense, Last Three Years (N>2 in bold) |
|||||
| Starters Returning |
Def F/+: < -10% |
Def. F/+: 0 to -9% |
Def. F/+: 0 to 9% |
Def. F/+: > 10% |
Overall Average |
| 1 | -12.4% | -12.4% | |||
| 2 | -7.0% | -14.1% | -8.5% | -10.9% | |
| 3 | -7.5% | -7.8% | -11.1% | -8.4% | |
| 4 | +6.5% | -2.0% | -0.1% | -6.1% | -2.1% |
| 5 | +12.0% | -0.5% | -3.3% | -5.5% | -1.1% |
| 6 | +1.2% | +1.6% | -1.5% | -5.0% | -0.5% |
| 7 | +4.8% | +0.8% | -1.1% | -2.0% | +1.1% |
| 8 | +5.4% | +2.2% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +1.5% |
| 9 | +8.6% | +5.1% | +2.3% | -1.8% | +4.2% |
| 10 | +10.7% | +5.8% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +6.0% |
| 11 | +6.5% | +3.3% | +5.4% | ||
We're dealing with tiny sample sizes on the extremes here, but if we were to project about a six-percent improvement from Cincinnati, that would raise their ranking to the No. 35-50 range. With a solid offense, this would make Cincy a really solid overall team.