Arizona State's top three receiving targets in 2010 -- Kerry Taylor, Mike Wilie and T.J. Simpson -- were targeted only a combined 40.5% of the time, third lowest in the country.
Lowest Combined Target Rates For Top Three Receivers, 2010
1. Middle Tennessee (37.2%)
2. Idaho (38.4%)
3. Arizona State (40.5%)
4. UL-Lafayette (41.9%)
5. Colorado State (42.3%)
6. Utah State (44.2%)
7. North Carolina (44.3%)
8. Rice (44.7%)
9. Southern Miss (44.9%)
10. UTEP (45.4%)
At first blush, one can spin this in either a positive or negative direction.
Positive: This shows depth and unpredictability!
Negative: Either because of injuries or ineffectiveness, the quarterback had no idea where to go with the ball.
What do the numbers think about having the exact opposite of a go-to Big Three? Let's first start by looking at the teams who had the highest Big Three target rates.
Highest Combined Target Rates For Top Three Receivers, 2010
1. SMU (74.6%)
2. Western Michigan (73.7%)
3. Missouri (72.3%)
4. Navy (70.3%)
5. Indiana (69.0%)
6. Washington (68.6%)
7. Washington State (67.3%)
8. Auburn (66.7%)
9. Michigan (66.6%)
10. Cincinnati (66.3%)
The average Passing S&P+ ranking of the ten teams on the "Lowest" list: 81.7.
The average Passing S&P+ ranking of the ten teams on the "Highest" list: 35.6.
Now, the overall correlation between Top Three Target Rate and Passing S&P+ ranking is just 0.206, suggesting a rather mushy middle. But at the extremes, we appear to have something here. Not every team with what seemed like multiple go-to guys had a good passing attack -- Western Michigan ranked 79th, Washington State 67th, SMU 58th. Having a set Big Three does leave you open to predictability. But not having any sort of Big Three does appear to be a hindrance. Of the teams on the "Lowest" list, only Arizona State (47th) and North Carolina (44th) ranked in the Passing S&P+ Top 50. And if we stretch it out further, only one of the 25 "lowest" teams ranked in the Passing S&P+ Top 30 -- Texas Tech, who ranked exactly 30th.
Complete list after the jump.
Rk | Team | Comb. Target Rate, Top Three Receivers |
Passing S&P+ Rk |
1 | SMU | 0.746 | 58 |
2 | Western Michigan | 0.737 | 79 |
3 | Missouri | 0.723 | 34 |
4 | Navy | 0.703 | 26 |
5 | Indiana | 0.690 | 41 |
6 | Washington | 0.686 | 18 |
7 | Washington State | 0.673 | 67 |
8 | Auburn | 0.667 | 1 |
9 | Michigan | 0.666 | 5 |
10 | Cincinnati | 0.663 | 27 |
11 | Hawaii | 0.663 | 28 |
12 | Florida Atlantic | 0.660 | 71 |
13 | San Diego State | 0.660 | 24 |
14 | Buffalo | 0.658 | 110 |
15 | Nebraska | 0.656 | 63 |
16 | Army | 0.654 | 94 |
17 | LSU | 0.635 | 59 |
18 | Illinois | 0.635 | 73 |
19 | Minnesota | 0.632 | 51 |
20 | Iowa | 0.631 | 23 |
21 | Connecticut | 0.631 | 96 |
22 | California | 0.630 | 106 |
23 | Miami-FL | 0.630 | 38 |
24 | Kentucky | 0.628 | 33 |
25 | Rutgers | 0.625 | 92 |
26 | San Jose State | 0.624 | 88 |
27 | Oregon | 0.624 | 21 |
28 | Central Florida | 0.620 | 50 |
29 | Kent State | 0.617 | 113 |
30 | Ohio State | 0.616 | 16 |
31 | Oklahoma | 0.616 | 7 |
32 | Bowling Green | 0.615 | 114 |
33 | South Carolina | 0.615 | 9 |
34 | West Virginia | 0.615 | 42 |
35 | Boise State | 0.611 | 3 |
36 | Duke | 0.606 | 57 |
37 | Pittsburgh | 0.602 | 25 |
38 | USC | 0.600 | 37 |
39 | Toledo | 0.600 | 60 |
40 | Wake Forest | 0.599 | 103 |
41 | Alabama | 0.596 | 4 |
42 | Houston | 0.593 | 65 |
43 | Western Kentucky | 0.592 | 116 |
44 | Tennessee | 0.590 | 43 |
45 | Nevada | 0.587 | 12 |
46 | Georgia Tech | 0.586 | 104 |
47 | Oklahoma State | 0.586 | 8 |
48 | Texas A&M | 0.586 | 36 |
49 | Miami-OH | 0.585 | 91 |
50 | Colorado | 0.582 | 40 |
51 | Kansas | 0.580 | 120 |
52 | East Carolina | 0.579 | 32 |
53 | Temple | 0.578 | 90 |
54 | Virginia | 0.578 | 80 |
55 | Virginia Tech | 0.576 | 10 |
56 | Florida State | 0.570 | 11 |
57 | Wyoming | 0.569 | 84 |
58 | New Mexico | 0.568 | 119 |
59 | UL-Monroe | 0.565 | 89 |
60 | Ohio | 0.564 | 62 |
61 | Mississippi State | 0.563 | 55 |
62 | New Mexico State | 0.562 | 115 |
63 | Baylor | 0.560 | 13 |
64 | Oregon State | 0.555 | 15 |
65 | Akron | 0.553 | 118 |
66 | Syracuse | 0.551 | 100 |
67 | Northern Illinois | 0.549 | 46 |
68 | Arkansas State | 0.548 | 82 |
69 | South Florida | 0.547 | 81 |
70 | Notre Dame | 0.547 | 35 |
71 | Air Force | 0.545 | 29 |
72 | Northwestern | 0.544 | 77 |
73 | TCU | 0.544 | 17 |
74 | Penn State | 0.540 | 54 |
75 | Georgia | 0.536 | 22 |
76 | Michigan State | 0.535 | 20 |
77 | Central Michigan | 0.535 | 93 |
78 | North Texas | 0.532 | 102 |
79 | Ole Miss | 0.532 | 49 |
80 | Iowa State | 0.530 | 75 |
81 | Maryland | 0.529 | 39 |
82 | Florida International | 0.522 | 64 |
83 | Fresno State | 0.522 | 52 |
84 | Eastern Michigan | 0.519 | 70 |
85 | Kansas State | 0.516 | 48 |
86 | Wisconsin | 0.515 | 14 |
87 | Stanford | 0.515 | 2 |
88 | UNLV | 0.514 | 66 |
89 | Purdue | 0.514 | 109 |
90 | Texas | 0.513 | 107 |
91 | Troy | 0.511 | 53 |
92 | Arizona | 0.510 | 31 |
93 | Utah | 0.503 | 19 |
94 | Arkansas | 0.499 | 6 |
95 | BYU | 0.496 | 86 |
96 | Clemson | 0.496 | 72 |
97 | Boston College | 0.492 | 97 |
98 | Louisville | 0.491 | 56 |
99 | Marshall | 0.491 | 78 |
100 | Tulsa | 0.490 | 69 |
101 | Tulane | 0.486 | 101 |
102 | Memphis | 0.486 | 105 |
103 | Vanderbilt | 0.485 | 117 |
104 | NC State | 0.484 | 45 |
105 | UCLA | 0.483 | 111 |
106 | Texas Tech | 0.481 | 30 |
107 | Ball State | 0.472 | 108 |
108 | Louisiana Tech | 0.464 | 83 |
109 | Florida | 0.463 | 61 |
110 | UAB | 0.457 | 68 |
111 | UTEP | 0.454 | 98 |
112 | Southern Miss | 0.449 | 74 |
113 | Rice | 0.447 | 76 |
114 | North Carolina | 0.443 | 44 |
115 | Utah State | 0.442 | 99 |
116 | Colorado State | 0.423 | 87 |
117 | UL-Lafayette | 0.419 | 95 |
118 | Arizona State | 0.405 | 47 |
119 | Idaho | 0.384 | 85 |
120 | Middle Tennessee | 0.372 | 112 |