Few teams, if any, improved more over the final third of the season (as compared to the opening third) as BYU. The Cougars started out 1-4, with Adj. Losses in each of their first five contests, then rallied; they scored an Adj. Win in each of their final eight games and rallied to finish 7-6 overall.
With Adj. Score, we can rather easily look at a team's development throughout the course of the season; we do this every day in our team profiles. Using Adj. Score, then, let's take a look at which teams changed the most from September to November.
Below is a list of FBS teams ranked by how much they improved (in terms of Adj. Scoring Margin) in November and beyond as compared to the first five weeks of the season (September and the first weekend in October). Top 25 above the fold, everybody else after. We've said before that your late-season performance is telling as it pertains to the next season. Who surged and who regressed?
| Team | Early Adj. Margin |
Rk | Late Adj. Margin |
Rk | Change | Rk |
| Northern Illinois | -3.9 | 74 | 23.0 | 5 | 26.8 | 1 |
| BYU | -10.1 | 98 | 14.9 | 14 | 25.0 | 2 |
| Miami-OH | -10.8 | 105 | 12.1 | 19 | 23.0 | 3 |
| Western Michigan | -10.3 | 99 | 7.3 | 31 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Tulsa | -7.1 | 85 | 9.9 | 24 | 17.0 | 5 |
| Boise State | 17.0 | 12 | 33.7 | 1 | 16.7 | 6 |
| Ball State | -16.1 | 115 | 0.5 | 57 | 16.6 | 7 |
| Notre Dame | 4.8 | 42 | 20.0 | 8 | 15.2 | 8 |
| Louisville | -7.4 | 86 | 7.2 | 33 | 14.6 | 9 |
| Stanford | 12.5 | 20 | 26.8 | 3 | 14.3 | 10 |
| Wisconsin | 8.4 | 28 | 21.4 | 6 | 13.0 | 11 |
| Arkansas State | -8.5 | 89 | 4.3 | 41 | 12.8 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | 5.2 | 40 | 17.4 | 11 | 12.2 | 13 |
| TCU | 19.1 | 6 | 31.1 | 2 | 12.0 | 14 |
| West Virginia | 8.0 | 29 | 19.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 15 |
| Rice | -11.8 | 107 | -0.4 | 62 | 11.4 | 16 |
| Minnesota | -7.9 | 88 | 2.9 | 46 | 10.8 | 17 |
| San Jose State | -16.6 | 116 | -6.3 | 93 | 10.3 | 18 |
| Western Kentucky | -15.4 | 114 | -5.4 | 89 | 10.0 | 19 |
| Wyoming | -9.5 | 95 | 0.2 | 59 | 9.7 | 20 |
| UL-Monroe | -16.9 | 117 | -7.4 | 98 | 9.5 | 21 |
| Central Florida | -1.6 | 64 | 7.2 | 34 | 8.7 | 22 |
| Washington | 1.3 | 58 | 9.5 | 25 | 8.2 | 23 |
| Washington State | -16.9 | 118 | -8.8 | 103 | 8.1 | 24 |
| Boston College | -4.8 | 80 | 3.0 | 45 | 7.8 | 25 |
Everybody else after the jump.
| Team | Early Adj. Margin |
Rk | Late Adj. Margin |
Rk | Change | Rk |
| Tulane | -11.4 | 106 | -3.7 | 76 | 7.8 | 26 |
| Kent State | -8.6 | 90 | -0.8 | 64 | 7.7 | 27 |
| Toledo | -4.7 | 78 | 2.9 | 48 | 7.6 | 28 |
| Akron | -18.2 | 119 | -10.8 | 106 | 7.4 | 29 |
| Nevada | 10.9 | 21 | 16.9 | 12 | 6.1 | 30 |
| New Mexico | -23.8 | 120 | -17.9 | 114 | 6.0 | 31 |
| North Texas | -8.9 | 92 | -3.1 | 75 | 5.8 | 32 |
| Texas Tech | -4.7 | 79 | 1.0 | 51 | 5.7 | 33 |
| Georgia | 7.1 | 33 | 12.6 | 18 | 5.5 | 34 |
| Florida International | -4.6 | 77 | 0.9 | 54 | 5.5 | 35 |
| Ohio | -10.6 | 102 | -5.3 | 88 | 5.3 | 36 |
| Pittsburgh | 2.4 | 54 | 7.7 | 29 | 5.2 | 37 |
| Navy | 0.7 | 60 | 5.7 | 37 | 5.0 | 38 |
| Marshall | -8.9 | 91 | -4.3 | 83 | 4.6 | 39 |
| Maryland | 4.4 | 45 | 8.8 | 28 | 4.4 | 40 |
| San Diego State | 7.8 | 31 | 12.1 | 20 | 4.3 | 41 |
| NC State | 0.2 | 61 | 4.5 | 40 | 4.2 | 42 |
| LSU | 10.2 | 25 | 13.9 | 16 | 3.8 | 43 |
| Mississippi State | 3.6 | 48 | 7.3 | 30 | 3.7 | 44 |
| UTEP | -10.5 | 100 | -6.8 | 96 | 3.7 | 45 |
| Louisiana Tech | -9.7 | 97 | -6.3 | 92 | 3.4 | 46 |
| Hawaii | 3.1 | 52 | 6.2 | 36 | 3.1 | 47 |
| Indiana | -9.4 | 94 | -7.0 | 97 | 2.4 | 48 |
| Purdue | -10.6 | 101 | -8.5 | 102 | 2.1 | 49 |
| Georgia Tech | -3.0 | 70 | -1.0 | 65 | 2.0 | 50 |
| Auburn | 19.3 | 5 | 21.2 | 7 | 1.9 | 51 |
| Troy | -0.1 | 62 | 1.7 | 50 | 1.8 | 52 |
| Temple | -4.5 | 76 | -2.7 | 73 | 1.8 | 53 |
| Iowa State | -5.4 | 81 | -3.7 | 78 | 1.7 | 54 |
| North Carolina | 3.1 | 51 | 4.2 | 42 | 1.1 | 55 |
| Tennessee | 2.4 | 55 | 2.7 | 49 | 0.3 | 56 |
| Arkansas | 17.8 | 10 | 18.1 | 10 | 0.2 | 57 |
| Alabama | 25.8 | 1 | 25.8 | 4 | 0.0 | 58 |
| Northwestern | -2.4 | 67 | -2.4 | 72 | 0.0 | 59 |
| East Carolina | -5.6 | 82 | -5.7 | 90 | -0.1 | 60 |
| South Carolina | 10.6 | 23 | 10.5 | 23 | -0.1 | 61 |
| Fresno State | -1.7 | 66 | -2.4 | 71 | -0.7 | 62 |
| Middle Tennessee | -6.7 | 84 | -7.7 | 100 | -1.0 | 63 |
| Ole Miss | -3.0 | 69 | -4.0 | 82 | -1.0 | 64 |
| Kansas | -13.0 | 111 | -14.1 | 110 | -1.1 | 65 |
| Clemson | 4.6 | 43 | 3.3 | 44 | -1.2 | 66 |
| Oklahoma State | 16.0 | 13 | 14.8 | 15 | -1.2 | 67 |
| Texas A&M | 13.0 | 18 | 11.2 | 21 | -1.8 | 68 |
| Duke | -4.3 | 75 | -6.4 | 94 | -2.2 | 69 |
| Central Michigan | -2.5 | 68 | -4.7 | 87 | -2.2 | 70 |
| Rutgers | -1.6 | 65 | -3.9 | 79 | -2.3 | 71 |
| Army | -3.4 | 73 | -6.3 | 91 | -2.8 | 72 |
| UNLV | -10.6 | 103 | -13.6 | 108 | -2.9 | 73 |
| Memphis | -13.4 | 112 | -16.5 | 111 | -3.1 | 74 |
| Southern Miss | 7.9 | 30 | 4.8 | 39 | -3.2 | 75 |
| Cincinnati | -1.3 | 63 | -4.4 | 85 | -3.2 | 76 |
| Kansas State | 4.1 | 47 | 0.7 | 56 | -3.4 | 77 |
| Virginia Tech | 10.7 | 22 | 7.3 | 32 | -3.5 | 78 |
| Penn State | 4.3 | 46 | 0.8 | 55 | -3.5 | 79 |
| Arizona State | 6.7 | 35 | 2.9 | 47 | -3.8 | 80 |
| Houston | 1.4 | 57 | -2.7 | 74 | -4.1 | 81 |
| New Mexico State | -15.2 | 113 | -19.3 | 117 | -4.2 | 82 |
| Michigan | 9.6 | 27 | 5.4 | 38 | -4.3 | 83 |
| Wake Forest | -9.5 | 96 | -13.9 | 109 | -4.4 | 84 |
| Illinois | 5.6 | 39 | 1.0 | 52 | -4.6 | 85 |
| Connecticut | 4.4 | 44 | -0.2 | 61 | -4.7 | 86 |
| Baylor | 5.8 | 38 | 1.0 | 53 | -4.8 | 87 |
| UL-Lafayette | -12.0 | 108 | -17.0 | 113 | -5.0 | 88 |
| South Florida | 3.6 | 49 | -2.2 | 70 | -5.8 | 89 |
| Colorado | 2.3 | 56 | -3.9 | 81 | -6.3 | 90 |
| UAB | -3.2 | 71 | -9.7 | 104 | -6.4 | 91 |
| Florida State | 15.8 | 14 | 9.2 | 26 | -6.5 | 92 |
| Eastern Michigan | -12.7 | 110 | -19.2 | 116 | -6.6 | 93 |
| SMU | 4.8 | 41 | -2.0 | 68 | -6.8 | 94 |
| Colorado State | -12.5 | 109 | -19.6 | 118 | -7.0 | 95 |
| Miami-FL | 17.9 | 9 | 10.8 | 22 | -7.1 | 96 |
| Florida Atlantic | -9.0 | 93 | -16.5 | 112 | -7.5 | 97 |
| Ohio State | 24.1 | 2 | 16.6 | 13 | -7.5 | 98 |
| Air Force | 6.4 | 36 | -1.5 | 66 | -7.9 | 99 |
| Idaho | 0.9 | 59 | -7.6 | 99 | -8.6 | 100 |
| Florida | 12.7 | 19 | 3.4 | 43 | -9.3 | 101 |
| Utah State | -3.3 | 72 | -12.7 | 107 | -9.4 | 102 |
| Bowling Green | -10.7 | 104 | -20.3 | 120 | -9.5 | 103 |
| Syracuse | 3.5 | 50 | -6.7 | 95 | -10.2 | 104 |
| Texas | 7.0 | 34 | -3.7 | 77 | -10.7 | 105 |
| Oregon | 23.6 | 3 | 12.7 | 17 | -10.9 | 106 |
| Arizona | 18.1 | 8 | 7.1 | 35 | -11.0 | 107 |
| Vanderbilt | -7.5 | 87 | -18.8 | 115 | -11.2 | 108 |
| USC | 7.7 | 32 | -4.4 | 84 | -12.1 | 109 |
| Kentucky | 10.3 | 24 | -2.0 | 69 | -12.3 | 110 |
| Missouri | 21.3 | 4 | 8.9 | 27 | -12.4 | 111 |
| UCLA | 2.8 | 53 | -10.7 | 105 | -13.5 | 112 |
| California | 13.6 | 15 | -0.2 | 60 | -13.8 | 113 |
| Oregon State | 10.1 | 26 | -3.9 | 80 | -14.0 | 114 |
| Buffalo | -6.0 | 83 | -20.0 | 119 | -14.0 | 115 |
| Virginia | 6.2 | 37 | -8.1 | 101 | -14.3 | 116 |
| Utah | 13.6 | 16 | -1.6 | 67 | -15.2 | 117 |
| Nebraska | 17.1 | 11 | 0.5 | 58 | -16.6 | 118 |
| Michigan State | 13.5 | 17 | -4.4 | 86 | -17.9 | 119 |
| Iowa | 18.6 | 7 | -0.8 | 63 | -19.4 | 120 |
The three largest regressions all belonged to teams now in the Big Ten Legends division. Is it any wonder why our projections think Michigan could be a division darkhorse?
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