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Compu-Picks: Why Turnovers are a Valuable Part of Pre-season Predictions

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Compu-Picks looks at the last eight years of turnover data,and discovers:

1) Turnover improvement very strongly correlates to record improvement.

2) The turnover margin from one year generally has a very small correlation with the turnover margin for the next year.

And for those of you who love big data tables, here's the full eight-year list of turnovers by program (this was the data table that drove my calculations):

Turnover Margin - by team by year

TEAM NAME Average 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
VIRGINIA TECH 9.8 19 9 14 11 4 9 13 -1
USC 9.6 4 0 7 2 4 21 19 20
FLORIDA 8.8 2 7 22 5 5 18 4 7
OKLAHOMA 8.5 14 4 23 8 -1 -1 4 17
ALABAMA 7.8 11 19 6 4 7 8 6 1
SOUTHERN MISS 7.6 9 10 13 -1 6 14 5 5
BOISE ST 7.5 8 21 7 1 11 -8 10 10
UTAH 7.4 -1 5 13 11 8 -1 15 9
AIR FORCE 7.3 5 22 13 10 8 -7 1 6
WEST VIRGINIA 7.3 -5 -2 12 13 7 14 3 16
TCU 6.6 9 2 13 -7 7 21 4 4
WAKE FOREST 5.9 0 -4 17 9 13 -2 7 7
OHIO STATE 5.6 15 17 16 -3 9 -9 -1 1
MISSOURI 5.1 11 4 -4 13 2 -1 5 11
IOWA 4.5 13 2 8 8 -11 -1 13 4
NAVY 4.4 7 9 15 -2 2 -6 3 7
BOSTON COLLEGE 3.5 8 -3 3 6 15 -4 0 3
N ILLINOIS 3.3 11 7 2 -17 2 -1 8 14
LSU 3.1 8 4 -1 20 0 -9 -2 5
NOTRE DAME 3.1 1 5 -3 0 5 10 5 2
OREGON 3.1 13 2 5 9 -10 13 -2 -5
PITTSBURGH 3.1 1 10 -3 -5 8 -4 13 5
CALIFORNIA 2.9 2 4 15 -3 6 -6 2 3
CONNECTICUT 2.9 12 3 -4 14 -1 4 -5 0
SAN JOSE ST 2.9 -7 -4 8 13 9 1 -2 5
TEXAS 2.9 -12 9 2 1 9 7 5 2
TEXAS A&M 2.9 -5 -2 10 7 9 6 9 -11
CLEMSON 2.8 -3 6 -1 13 2 9 -8 4
MINNESOTA 2.6 2 -1 12 -15 18 -1 7 -1
BOWLING GREEN 2.5 -2 4 0 0 1 8 15 -6
IOWA ST 2.5 6 4 4 -7 -5 14 10 -6
GEORGIA 2.4 10 -16 -3 9 -1 11 -2 11
TENNESSEE 2.4 4 3 2 7 1 -7 6 3
WISCONSIN 2.4 14 3 -8 -2 0 13 2 -3
NEVADA 2.3 5 -3 1 -3 12 0 1 5
RUTGERS 2.1 7 20 1 -6 11 -3 -7 -6
OKLAHOMA ST 2.0 12 0 5 -3 5 -15 16 -4
MIDDLE TENN 1.9 -19 12 3 11 6 6 -6 2
ARKANSAS 1.8 1 15 -9 4 -4 -1 -3 11
BALL ST 1.8 -5 -7 5 17 1 3 5 -5
E CAROLINA 1.8 -7 11 5 17 4 0 -4 -12
FLORIDA ST 1.8 4 1 0 6 -8 -4 7 8
STANFORD 1.8 13 0 -4 3 -11 4 8 1
TOLEDO 1.6 11 -10 0 1 -3 5 -2 11
LA TECH 1.5 -5 7 9 1 -8 13 0 -5
LOUISVILLE 1.3 3 -3 -12 0 2 6 11 3
TULSA 1.3 17 -2 -5 -6 -5 19 -11 3
W KENTUCKY 1.3 3 -12 -1 2 -4 4 8 10
C MICHIGAN 1.0 -11 5 4 6 7 5 -4 -4
ARIZONA ST 0.9 -6 -2 5 3 -1 7 5 -4
PENN ST 0.8 -4 6 7 2 1 3 -3 -6
AUBURN 0.6 5 1 -8 0 5 -3 4 1
KENTUCKY 0.6 -4 2 5 -1 15 -9 -2 -1
VIRGINIA 0.5 -7 0 -7 2 2 3 6 5
UAB 0.4 -6 9 -1 -5 6 5 0 -5
GEORGIA TECH 0.3 -6 8 2 -4 3 10 -13 2
MICHIGAN ST 0.3 5 -6 2 2 -1 -1 -10 11
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.3 -9 1 -9 18 1 -7 0 7
AKRON 0.1 -6 -5 6 -1 1 -7 6 7
NEW MEXICO 0.0 -12 -6 3 0 2 -1 9 5
OREGON ST -0.1 4 5 1 0 8 -14 3 -8
PURDUE -0.1 -6 -5 -3 1 -1 3 -2 12
SYRACUSE -0.1 -4 -6 -1 -6 11 -4 2 7
TROY -0.1 -1 -6 6 -1 -5 -9 11 4
INDIANA -0.3 -7 7 1 2 -4 -8 4 3
MICHIGAN -0.4 -10 -12 -10 2 14 5 6 2
ARIZONA -0.5 -4 -1 6 -1 7 -9 3 -5
KANSAS -0.5 -8 -5 4 21 -5 -8 4 -7
OHIO UNIVERSITY -0.5 -7 13 -12 2 -4 4 1 -1
VANDERBILT -0.5 -4 3 9 -2 -2 -2 4 -10
MIAMI OH -0.6 11 -24 -12 -3 0 13 -10 20
NORTHWESTERN -0.6 -1 4 -3 -9 -7 9 4 -2
UCF -0.8 4 8 1 1 -7 12 -3 -22
MEMPHIS -1.0 -13 -9 1 10 0 7 0 -4
KANSAS ST -1.1 4 7 -7 4 -4 -6 -6 -1
ARKANSAS ST -1.3 1 -5 9 -4 -4 5 -9 -3
HOUSTON -1.3 -6 4 -6 -7 9 -4 6 -6
MARYLAND -1.3 15 -6 -8 8 -6 -5 -9 1
TEXAS TECH -1.3 -3 -6 8 -5 0 9 -5 -8
UTEP -1.3 -5 -3 12 9 0 -10 2 -15
BYU -1.4 1 0 2 -6 14 2 -10 -14
COLORADO -1.5 0 -6 -7 -4 8 2 1 -6
MIAMI (FLA) -1.5 -8 0 -10 -6 -3 5 14 -4
USF -1.5 -3 0 -8 9 -4 5 -10 -1
TEMPLE -1.5 -6 4 0 0 -9 -8 2 5
BUFFALO -1.6 -8 -7 19 3 -4 -15 1 -2
S CAROLINA -1.8 0 -4 -11 -7 -2 2 1 7
W MICHIGAN -1.8 3 -6 -7 -5 12 6 -13 -4
CINCINNATI -2.0 -15 9 -8 16 -6 -7 -5 0
DUKE -2.0 -10 2 5 -3 -8 -8 2 4
E MICHIGAN -2.0 -11 -3 1 8 -6 10 -9 -6
NEBRASKA -2.0 -1 5 -11 -17 0 -2 -13 23
UCLA -2.0 -11 6 -10 -4 4 6 -6 -1
UTAH ST -2.0 -5 6 -1 2 -6 -2 -6 -4
LOUISIANA LFT (SW) -2.1 -3 3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 5
UL MONROE (NE) -2.1 -6 -5 2 1 10 1 -1 -19
KENT ST -2.3 0 -2 -3 -11 3 -11 -1 7
RICE -2.4 -7 -9 15 -2 8 -17 -4 -3
SAN DIEGO ST -2.9 -6 -10 -6 6 -7 2 -1 -1
HAWAII -3.0 12 -11 -7 -6 1 -3 -2 -8
MISS ST -3.4 7 -5 -4 0 -5 2 -1 -21
UNLV -3.4 -1 -3 0 1 -11 -8 -17 12
WASH ST -3.4 -1 -7 -25 -2 6 -5 -1 8
N CAROLINA -3.5 1 2 6 -6 -11 -1 -4 -15
WYOMING -3.5 -2 8 -22 -12 -4 -12 6 10
BAYLOR -3.6 0 -5 16 -18 -7 5 -15 -5
MISSISSIPPI -3.8 -6 -7 -2 -10 -3 -5 -3 6
COLORADO ST -4.4 -8 0 2 0 -7 5 -12 -15
N TEXAS ST -4.6 -3 -14 -17 -11 -15 0 13 10
N CAROLINA ST -4.8 7 -11 8 -16 -11 0 -17 2
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL -4.8 4 -4 4 -14 -9 -8 -6 -5
FRESNO ST -4.9 -11 -10 -11 -9 -6 -4 7 5
ARMY -5.0 16 5 -14 -10 -18 -2 3 -20
IDAHO -5.4 2 -8 -14 -9 -1 -6 -2 -5
WASHINGTON -5.8 2 4 -17 -1 -8 -3 -19 -4
TULANE -6.3 -2 -16 -5 -3 -11 -12 -6 5
ILLINOIS -6.8 8 -4 -6 -2 -15 -11 -6 -18
MARSHALL -7.0 -6 -4 -4 -10 -9 -6 2 -19
SMU -7.3 -12 2 -13 -9 1 5 -19 -13
N MEXICO ST -9.1 -6 -10 -6 -15 -10 -23 5 -8

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