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Study Hall: Penn State 10, Illinois 7

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By Bill C. Updated
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Bad weather + one slumping offense (Illinois) + one just plain mediocre one (PSU) + one strong defense (Illinois) + one great one (PSU) = I'm surprised anybody scored at all. These two teams did worse on standard downs than teams typically do on passing downs. Also: I love Devon Still.

Penn State 10, Illinois 7
Illinois Penn St. Illinois Penn St.
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 27.0% 39.1% Success Rate 29.0% 31.0%
Leverage % 51.4% 60.9% PPP 0.08 0.14
S&P 0.373 0.445
TOTAL
EqPts 9.2 7.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 28.4% 27.5% Success Rate 27.8% 22.2%
Close PPP 0.12 0.11 PPP 0.17 0.08
Close S&P 0.409 0.388 S&P 0.446 0.299
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 6.4 5.4 Number 4 3
Close Success Rate 25.0% 32.4% Turnover Pts 18.3 13.8
Close PPP 0.13 0.15 Turnover Pts Margin -4.5 +4.5
Close S&P 0.384 0.470
Line Yards/carry 2.91 2.43 Q1 S&P -0.017 0.332
Q2 S&P 0.382 0.173
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.541 0.184
EqPts 2.8 2.4 Q4 S&P 0.593 0.748
Close Success Rate 34.6% 21.9%
Close PPP 0.11 0.07 1st Down S&P 0.333 0.403
Close S&P 0.454 0.293 2nd Down S&P 0.369 0.448
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 15.4% 0.0% / 25.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.691 0.290
Projected Pt. Margin: Penn State +3.1 | Actual Pt. Margin: Penn State +3

Quick glossary (complete with national averages) after the jump.

A Quick Glossary

F/+ Rankings: The official rankings for the college portion of Football Outsiders. They combine my own S&P+ rankings (based on play-by-play data) with Brian Fremeau's drives-based FEI rankings.

Field Position %: The percentage of a team's plays run in their opponent's field position. National average: 43%.

Leverage Rate: A team's ratio of standard downs to passing downs. National average: 68%. Anything over 68% means a team did a good job of avoiding being leveraged into passing downs.

Passing Downs: Second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more.

PPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. National average: 0.32.

S&P: Think of this as an OPS (the "On-Base Plus Slugging" baseball measure) for football. The 'S' stands for success rate. The 'P' stands for PPP, an explosiveness measure that stands for EqPts Per Play. S&P is measured for all non-garbage time plays in a given college football game. Plays are counted within the following criteria: when the score is within 28 points in the first quarter, within 24 points in the second quarter, within 21 points in the third quarter, and within 16 points (i.e. two possession) in the fourth quarter. For more about this measure, visit the main S&P+ page at Football Outsiders. National average: 0.747. Standard downs S&P average: 0.787. Passing downs S&P average: 0.636.

Standard Downs: First downs, second-and-6 or less, third-and-4 or less.

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down. National Average: 42%.

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