Well ... pretty good week after the ridiculousness of mid-week MACtion. The picks went 1-5 in Tuesday-through-Thursday games, then 29-21 thereafter. Still, for the season this method has been just slightly better than flipping a coin. Hopefully there will be time in the offseason to revisit how these ratings, which evaluate teams pretty well, can be used in a more predictive manner.
Last Week's Results
| Week 11 | Season | |||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
30-26-1 | 53.5% | 275-265-7 | 50.9% |
| Upset Picks | 2-3 | 40.0% | 22-29 | 43.1% |
| 0-5 point spread |
10-7 | 58.8% | 69-77-2 | 47.3% |
| 5-10 points |
6-6-1 | 50.0% | 68-62-3 | 52.3% |
| 10-20 points |
11-10 | 52.4% | 83-72-1 | 53.5% |
| 20-30 points |
3-1 | 75.0% | 38-37 | 50.7% |
| 30+ points |
0-2 | 0.0% | 13-16 | 44.8% |
As for this week's picks ... well-played, Vegas. There are 56 games below; for 25 of them, the spread and projection are within two points of each other. A ridiculous 37 are within four points. A cointoss really might be the best way to make picks this week.
| Date | Time (ET) |
Game | Spread (Home) |
Winner | ATS Pick |
| 15-Nov | 8:00 PM | Ball St. at N. Illinois (ESPNU) | -19.0 | NIU by 15.8 | Ball St. |
| 16-Nov | 8:00 PM | Ohio at Bowling Green (ESPN) | 7.0 | Ohio by 4.3 | BGSU |
| 16-Nov | 8:00 PM | W. Michigan at Miami-OH (ESPN2) | -1.5 | WMU by 5.7 | WMU |
| 17-Nov | 8:00 PM | Southern Miss at UAB (CBSSN) | 23.0 | So. Miss by 25.3 | So. Miss |
| 17-Nov | 8:00 PM | Marshall at Memphis (FSN) | 11.5 | Marshall by 8.7 | Memphis |
| 17-Nov | 8:00 PM | N. Carolina at Va. Tech (ESPN) | -10.5 | Va. Tech by 10.3 | UNC |
| 18-Nov | 8:00 PM | Oklahoma St. at Iowa St. (ESPN) | 27.0 | OSU by 29.3 | OSU |
| 18-Nov | 8:00 PM | Toledo at C. Michigan (ESPNU) | 14.0 | Toledo by 14.6 | Toledo |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Louisville at UConn (ESPN3) | -1.0 | Louisville by 0.9 | Louisville |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Minnesota at Northwestern (BTN) | -15.5 | NW'ern by 17.6 | NW'ern |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Indiana at Mich. St. (BTN) | -28.0 | Mich. St. by 32.2 | Mich. St. |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Nebraska at Michigan (ESPN) | -3.5 | Michigan by 2.4 | Nebraska |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Cincinnati at Rutgers (ESPNU) | 3.0 | Rutgers by 2.7 | Rutgers |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Kansas at Texas A&M (FSN) | -30.5 | Tex. A&M by 29.7 | Kansas |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Wisconsin at Illinois (ESPN2) | 14.0 | Wiscy by 12.2 | Illinois |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Akron at Buffalo | -11.5 | Buffalo by 10.7 | Akron |
| 19-Nov | 12:00 PM | Iowa at Purdue (BTN) | 3.0 | Iowa by 6.5 | Iowa |
| 19-Nov | 12:21 PM | Kentucky at Georgia (SEC) | -30.5 | Georgia by 25.7 | Kentucky |
| 19-Nov | 12:30 PM | Georgia Tech at Duke (ESPN3) | 11.0 | Ga. Tech by 8.6 | Duke |
| 19-Nov | 1:00 PM | Army at Temple (ESPN3) | -13.5 | Temple by 23.9 | Temple |
| 19-Nov | 1:00 PM | E. Michigan at Kent St. | -3.5 | Kent St. by 7.6 | Kent St. |
| 19-Nov | 2:00 PM | New Mexico at Wyoming (MTN) | -24.0 | Wyoming by 25.9 | Wyoming |
| 19-Nov | 3:00 PM | Maryland at Wake Forest (ESPN3) | -10.5 | Wake by 13.2 | Wake |
| 19-Nov | 3:00 PM | Arkansas St. at MTSU (ESPN3) | 10.5 | Ark. St. by 13.3 | Ark. St. |
| 19-Nov | 3:00 PM | Tulsa at UTEP (CBSSN) | 13.5 | Tulsa by 6.1 | UTEP |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Texas Tech at Missouri (ABC) | -18.0 | Missouri by 18.2 | Missouri |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Mississippi St. at Arkansas (CBS) | -13.0 | Arkansas by 13.1 | Arkansas |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Miami-FL at S. Florida (ESPNU) | 1.0 | USF by 3.2 | USF |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Clemson at N.C. St. (ESPN/ABC) | 7.5 | Clemson by 11.4 | Clemson |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Penn St. at Ohio St. (ESPN/ABC) | -6.5 | Ohio St. by 0.9 | Penn St. |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Washington at Oregon St. (FCSP) | 3.0 | Washington by 4.2 | Washington |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Tulane at Rice | -14.0 | Rice by 12.7 | Tulane |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | SMU at Houston (FSN) | -19.5 | Houston by 12.2 | SMU |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Colorado St. at TCU (VS) | -33.5 | TCU by 29.4 | Colo. St. |
| 19-Nov | 3:30 PM | Florida Atlantic at Troy | -11.0 | Troy by 12.2 | Troy |
| 19-Nov | 4:00 PM | Navy at San Jose St. (ESPN3) | 5.0 | SJSU by 2.7 | SJSU |
| 19-Nov | 4:00 PM | B.C. at Notre Dame (NBC) | -24.5 | Irish by 25.4 | Irish |
| 19-Nov | 4:05 PM | Louisiana Tech at Nevada | -7.0 | La. Tech by 5 | La. Tech |
| 19-Nov | 5:00 PM | Utah St. at Idaho (ESPN3) | 10.0 | Utah St. by 9.2 | Idaho |
| 19-Nov | 5:00 PM | Utah at Washington St. (FCSA) | 3.5 | Utah by 9 | Utah |
| 19-Nov | 5:00 PM | Fla. Int'l at UL-Monroe | -1.5 | FIU by 5.8 | FIU |
| 19-Nov | 6:00 PM | UNLV at Air Force (MTN) | -23.5 | AFA by 14.7 | UNLV |
| 19-Nov | 7:00 PM | LSU at Ole Miss (ESPN) | 28.5 | LSU by 34.6 | LSU |
| 19-Nov | 7:00 PM | C. Florida at E. Carolina (FSN) | 6.5 | UCF by 5.2 | ECU |
| 19-Nov | 7:00 PM | W. Kentucky at N. Texas (ESPN3) | 3.0 | WKU by 3.8 | WKU |
| 19-Nov | 7:00 PM | Vandy at Tennessee (ESPNU) | 1.5 | Tennessee by 2.7 | Tennessee |
| 19-Nov | 7:30 PM | Colorado at UCLA (VS) | -11.0 | UCLA by 10 | Colorado |
| 19-Nov | 7:30 PM | Virginia at Florida St. (ESPN2) | -17.5 | Florida St. by 18 | Florida St. |
| 19-Nov | 8:00 PM | Boise St. at SDSU (CBSSN) | 18.0 | Boise St. by 19.8 | Boise St. |
| 19-Nov | 8:00 PM | Oklahoma at Baylor (ABC) | 15.0 | Oklahoma by 15.8 | Oklahoma |
| 19-Nov | 8:00 PM | Kansas St. at Texas (FX) | -9.5 | Texas by 8.3 | Kansas St. |
| 19-Nov | 8:00 PM | USC at Oregon (ABC) | -15.0 | Oregon by 14.7 | USC |
| 19-Nov | 9:30 PM | Arizona at Arizona St. (FCSC) | -11.0 | Arizona St. by 16.7 | Arizona St. |
| 19-Nov | 10:15 PM | California at Stanford (ESPN) | -17.5 | Stanford by 15.6 | California |
| 19-Nov | 10:15 PM | NMSU at BYU (ESPNU) | -22.5 | BYU by 21.6 | NMSU |
| 19-Nov | 11:00 PM | Fresno St. at Hawaii (ESPN3) | -5.0 | Hawaii by 8.5 | Hawaii |
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