clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Study Hall: Baylor 31, Kansas 30

New, 1 comment

The "WHUT?" game of the week. Not only did Kansas keep things close, but they legitimately should have won. And ... really? You decide to go for two in OT to win, and you choose a fade route? Kansas averaged 3.7 yards per pass attempt, and running back Darrian Miller averaged 6.1 yards per carry. But yeah, definitely throw a fade route.

Baylor 31, Kansas 30

Baylor Kansas Baylor Kansas
Close % 94.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 27.6% 47.3% Success Rate 62.8% 50.8%
Leverage % 74.1% 71.4% PPP 0.61 0.32
S&P 1.234 0.830
EqPts 26.4 23.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 52.8% 47.1% Success Rate 40.0% 34.6%
Close PPP 0.38 0.27 PPP 0.02 0.10
Close S&P 0.913 0.738 S&P 0.424 0.450
EqPts 10.3 19.2 Number 4 3
Close Success Rate 56.0% 50.0% Turnover Pts 21.7 15.8
Close PPP 0.21 0.31 Turnover Pts Margin -5.9 +5.9
Close S&P 0.770 0.811
Line Yards/carry 3.08 3.29 Q1 S&P 0.317 0.691
Q2 S&P 0.661 0.775
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.494 0.840
EqPts 16.1 4.5 Q4 S&P 1.878 0.428
Close Success Rate 50.0% 40.7%
Close PPP 0.54 0.17 1st Down S&P 1.408 0.748
Close S&P 1.041 0.574 2nd Down S&P 0.692 0.649
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 0.0% 6.3% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.469 0.698
Projected Pt. Margin: Kansas +3.2 | Actual Pt. Margin: Baylor +1

Quick glossary (complete with national averages) after the jump.

A Quick Glossary

F/+ Rankings: The official rankings for the college portion of Football Outsiders. They combine my own S&P+ rankings (based on play-by-play data) with Brian Fremeau's drives-based FEI rankings.

Field Position %: The percentage of a team's plays run in their opponent's field position. National average: 43%.

Leverage Rate: A team's ratio of standard downs to passing downs. National average: 68%. Anything over 68% means a team did a good job of avoiding being leveraged into passing downs.

Passing Downs: Second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more.

PPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. National average: 0.32.

S&P: Think of this as an OPS (the "On-Base Plus Slugging" baseball measure) for football. The 'S' stands for success rate. The 'P' stands for PPP, an explosiveness measure that stands for EqPts Per Play. S&P is measured for all non-garbage time plays in a given college football game. Plays are counted within the following criteria: when the score is within 28 points in the first quarter, within 24 points in the second quarter, within 21 points in the third quarter, and within 16 points (i.e. two possession) in the fourth quarter. For more about this measure, visit the main S&P+ page at Football Outsiders. National average: 0.747. Standard downs S&P average: 0.787. Passing downs S&P average: 0.636.

Standard Downs: First downs, second-and-6 or less, third-and-4 or less.

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down. National Average: 42%.