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UPDATE: UGH. The original picks below were aligned with my S&P+ ratings, not the combined F/+ ratings. F/+ is much more accurate for picks, so I've updated the post below. Gotta love user error.
It was a nice thought, wasn't it? That combining teams' variability and the size of the difference between projection and spread would produce some "safe" picks? For at least one week, and one small sample size, it did not. The "safe" picks went 2-4, the "unsafe" picks 3-3. We'll go back to the drawing board on that one and, below, just keep giving you the weekly picks that are evidently every bit as successful as flipping a coin. Good times.
Last Week's Results
| Week 10 | Season | |||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
26-26 | 50.0% | 245-239-6 | 50.6% |
| Upset Picks | 1-3 | 25.0% | 20-26 | 43.5% |
| 0-5 point spread |
8-11 | 42.1% | 59-70-2 | 45.8% |
| 5-10 points |
4-3 | 57.1% | 62-56-2 | 52.5% |
| 10-20 points |
11-4 | 73.3% | 72-62-1 | 53.7% |
| 20-30 points |
2-6 | 25.0% | 35-36 | 49.3% |
| 30+ points |
1-2 | 33.3% | 13-14 | 48.1% |
One more thing: do not, in any way, use these picks to bet on these damn mid-week MAC games. Good lord. Such picks went 1-3 last week and are 0-3 this week. Actually, DO use these picks to bet on these games; just pick the opposite.
| Date | Time (ET) |
Game | Spread (Home) |
Winner | ATS Pick |
| 8-Nov | 8:00 PM | NIU at Bowling Green (ESPN2) | 5.5 | NIU by 3.2 | BGSU |
| 8-Nov | 8:00 PM | W. Michigan at Toledo (ESPNU) | -12.0 | Toledo by 15.3 | Toledo |
| 9-Nov | 8:00 PM | Miami-OH at Temple (ESPN2) | -13.0 | Temple by 19 | Temple |
| 10-Nov | 7:30 PM | Ohio at C. Michigan (ESPNU) | 6.5 | Ohio by 10.4 | Ohio |
| 10-Nov | 8:00 PM | Va. Tech at Ga. Tech (ESPN) | 1.0 | Ga. Tech by 2.9 | Ga. Tech |
| 10-Nov | 8:00 PM | Houston at Tulane (CBSSN) | 34.5 | Houston by 23.3 | Tulane |
| 11-Nov | 8:00 PM | S. Florida at Syracuse (ESPN2) | 3.5 | USF by 4.1 | USF |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Texas at Missouri (FX) | 1.5 | Missouri by 0.1 | Missouri |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Rice at Northwestern (BTN) | -16.5 | NW'ern by 17 | NW'ern |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Pittsburgh at Louisville (ESPN3) | -2.5 | Louisville by 1.6 | Pittsburgh |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Marshall at Tulsa (FSN) | -18.5 | Tulsa by 14.6 | Marshall |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Nebraska at Penn St. (ESPN) | 3.0 | Penn St. by 5.9 | Penn St. |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Wake Forest at Clemson (ESPNU) | -16.5 | Clemson by 13.7 | Wake |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | West Virginia at Cincinnati (ABC) | -3.5 | Cincinnati by 6.3 | Cincinnati |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Michigan St. at Iowa (ESPN2) | 2.5 | Michigan St. by 1.4 | Iowa |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Ohio St. at Purdue (BTN) | 7.0 | Ohio St. by 12.6 | Ohio St. |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Florida at S. Carolina (CBS) | -3.5 | S. Caro. by 8.8 | S. Caro. |
| 12-Nov | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech (ABC) | 17.0 | Okla. St. by 23.8 | Okla. St. |
| 12-Nov | 12:21 PM | Kentucky at Vanderbilt (SEC) | -13.5 | Vandy by 13.5 | Vandy |
| 12-Nov | 12:30 PM | NC St. at Boston College (ESPN3) | 2.0 | NC St. by 1.2 | B.C. |
| 12-Nov | 1:00 PM | Buffalo at Eastern Michigan | -3.0 | EMU by 2.3 | Buffalo |
| 12-Nov | 1:00 PM | North Texas at Troy (ESPN3) | -8.0 | Troy by 6.1 | N. Texas |
| 12-Nov | 2:00 PM | Wyoming at Air Force (MTN) | -16.5 | Air Force by 6.5 | Wyoming |
| 12-Nov | 2:00 PM | Kent St. at Akron (ESPN3) | 5.0 | Kent St. by 3.5 | Akron |
| 12-Nov | 2:00 PM | Baylor at Kansas | 20.0 | Baylor by 17.9 | Kansas |
| 12-Nov | 2:40 PM | Arizona at Colorado (FCSP) | 10.5 | Arizona by 11.6 | Arizona |
| 12-Nov | 3:00 PM | Duke at Virginia (ESPN3) | -10.0 | Virginia by 14.5 | Virginia |
| 12-Nov | 3:00 PM | San Jose St. at Utah St. (ESPN3) | -10.5 | Utah St. by 15.4 | Utah St. |
| 12-Nov | 3:00 PM | UL-Lafayette at Ark. St. (ESPN3) | -11.0 | Ark. St. by 11.4 | Ark. St. |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Miami at Florida St. (ABC/ESPN) | -9.0 | Florida St. by 10.3 | Florida St. |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Auburn at Georgia (CBS) | -13.5 | Georgia by 16.3 | Georgia |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | TCU at Boise St. (VS) | -15.0 | Boise St. by 19.6 | Boise St. |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Wisconsin at Minnesota (BTN) | 27.0 | Wisconsin by 32.5 | Wisconsin |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Rutgers at Army (CBSSN) | 7.5 | Rutgers by 14.3 | Rutgers |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Michigan at Illinois (ABC/ESPN) | -1.0 | Illinois by 0.7 | Michigan |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Tex. A&M at Kan. St. (ABC/ESPN3) | 4.5 | A&M by 4.4 | KSU |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Mid. Tenn. at UL-Monroe (ESPN3) | -6.0 | UL-Monroe by 10 | UL-Monroe |
| 12-Nov | 3:30 PM | Navy at SMU (FSN) | -8.0 | SMU by 9.7 | SMU |
| 12-Nov | 3:45 PM | Washington at USC (FX) | -12.5 | USC by 13.3 | USC |
| 12-Nov | 4:15 PM | UAB at Memphis (CSS) | 4.5 | Memphis by 0.4 | Memphis |
| 12-Nov | 6:00 PM | Tennessee at Arkansas (ESPN2) | -14.0 | Arkansas by 6.6 | Tennessee |
| 12-Nov | 6:00 PM | SDSU at Colorado St. (MTN) | 13.5 | SDSU by 9 | Colo. St. |
| 12-Nov | 6:00 PM | Fla. Atlantic at Fla. Int'l |
-17.5 | FIU by 20.6 | FIU |
| 12-Nov | 6:30 PM | Oregon St. at California (FCSA) | -8.5 | Cal by 12 | Cal |
| 12-Nov | 6:30 PM | UCLA at Utah (FSPT) | -7.0 | Utah by 6.2 | UCLA |
| 12-Nov | 7:00 PM | Western Kentucky at LSU (ESPNU) | -41.5 | LSU by 45.4 | LSU |
| 12-Nov | 7:30 PM | Maryland at Notre Dame (NBC) | -20.5 | Irish by 22.3 | Irish |
| 12-Nov | 7:30 PM | Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss (ESPN3) | 2.5 | La. Tech by 10.1 | La. Tech |
| 12-Nov | 7:45 PM | Alabama at Mississippi St. (ESPN) | 17.5 | Alabama by 24.6 | Alabama |
| 12-Nov | 8:00 PM | Oregon at Stanford (ABC) | -3.5 | Oregon by 1.5 | Oregon |
| 12-Nov | 8:00 PM | Fresno St. at NMSU (ESPN3) | 7.5 | Fresno by 3.8 | NMSU |
| 12-Nov | 8:00 PM | UCF at So. Miss (CBSSN) | -9.0 | So. Miss by 16.5 | So. Miss |
| 12-Nov | 8:00 PM | East Carolina at UTEP | -3.5 | UTEP by 6.5 | UTEP |
| 12-Nov | 9:15 PM | Idaho at BYU (ESPN2) | -20.5 | BYU by 15.9 | Idaho |
| 12-Nov | 10:00 PM | UNLV at New Mexico (MTN) | 7.0 | UNLV by 7 | New Mex. |
| 12-Nov | 10:15 PM | Hawaii at Nevada (ESPNU) | -15.5 | Nevada by 1.7 | Hawaii |
| 12-Nov | 10:30 PM | Arizona St. at Wash. St. (VS) | 11.5 | ASU by 19.6 | ASU |
Out of curiosity, I used the Momentum Rankings from earlier this week to see what adjustments using such numbers would make on the overall picks. Here are the three games that would flip from one side of the spread to the other:
- PIttsburgh at Louisville (New Projection: Louisville by 2.8)
- Michigan State at Iowa (New Projection: Michigan State by 3.9)
- UCLA at Utah (New Projection: Utah by 7.5)
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