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In last week's Varsity Numbers, I discussed a way to gauge teams' momentum using weighted Adj. Scoring Margin.
Wtd. Margin: This is an attempted look at momentum. If we weight each progressive game as ten percent more important than the one before it, some teams' Adj. Scoring Margins change. We can compare Wtd. Margin to the full 2011 Margin to get the DIFF column, which signifies the difference between the two numbers. Teams with a positive "DIFF" have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Teams with negative numbers have not. No. 30 TCU is coming on strong after a rocky start, while No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 33 Illinois and No. 40 Florida are dropping quickly.
I am using this measure for an upcoming bowl projections piece, so I wanted to go ahead and post this year's momentum rankings. They are below. And yes, South Carolina's defense has been so good recently that they are sixth despite a complete lack of offense.
(And yes, I'm going to try as hard as I can to produce that Excel data file this week. Thanks, as always, for your patience.)
Wtd Rank | Team | Wtd Margin | Overall Margin | DIFF |
1 | Alabama | 34.3 | 34.3 | 0.0 |
2 | LSU | 24.1 | 24.4 | -0.3 |
3 | Oklahoma | 23.8 | 24.7 | -0.9 |
4 | Boise State | 23.4 | 23.5 | -0.1 |
5 | Oregon | 19.6 | 20.0 | -0.4 |
6 | South Carolina | 18.4 | 16.7 | 1.7 |
7 | Wisconsin | 18.0 | 18.1 | -0.1 |
8 | Florida State | 17.0 | 16.3 | 0.7 |
9 | Notre Dame | 16.3 | 16.6 | -0.3 |
10 | Oklahoma State | 15.4 | 15.2 | 0.2 |
11 | Stanford | 15.1 | 15.8 | -0.8 |
12 | Michigan State | 15.0 | 16.2 | -1.2 |
13 | Georgia | 14.7 | 15.3 | -0.6 |
14 | Houston | 13.4 | 12.3 | 1.0 |
15 | TCU | 13.3 | 11.3 | 2.0 |
16 | Michigan | 12.8 | 13.4 | -0.6 |
17 | Penn State | 12.7 | 14.1 | -1.4 |
18 | Missouri | 12.5 | 12.7 | -0.2 |
19 | Virginia Tech | 12.0 | 13.3 | -1.3 |
20 | Texas A&M | 11.0 | 12.6 | -1.6 |
21 | Central Florida | 10.4 | 12.0 | -1.7 |
22 | SMU | 10.1 | 10.4 | -0.3 |
23 | Toledo | 10.0 | 8.7 | 1.2 |
24 | Texas | 9.8 | 9.3 | 0.5 |
25 | Cincinnati | 9.6 | 8.4 | 1.2 |
Full list after the jump.
Wtd Rank | Team | Wtd Margin | Overall Margin | DIFF |
26 | West Virginia | 9.6 | 8.6 | 1.0 |
27 | USC | 9.2 | 7.9 | 1.3 |
28 | Nebraska | 8.9 | 7.5 | 1.3 |
29 | Baylor | 8.7 | 10.3 | -1.6 |
30 | Illinois | 7.9 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
31 | Miami-FL | 7.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
32 | South Florida | 7.6 | 7.5 | 0.1 |
33 | Temple | 7.4 | 7.1 | 0.3 |
34 | North Carolina | 6.9 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
35 | Nevada | 6.7 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
36 | Tulsa | 6.5 | 5.9 | 0.6 |
37 | Arizona State | 6.0 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
38 | Ohio State | 5.9 | 6.6 | -0.7 |
39 | Southern Miss | 5.8 | 4.9 | 0.9 |
40 | Clemson | 5.7 | 5.6 | 0.1 |
41 | Northern Illinois | 5.5 | 4.8 | 0.7 |
42 | Army | 5.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
43 | Vanderbilt | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
44 | Arkansas | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 |
45 | Washington | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
46 | Georgia Tech | 4.1 | 5.5 | -1.4 |
47 | Virginia | 3.9 | 5.0 | -1.1 |
48 | Arkansas State | 3.8 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
49 | California | 3.4 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
50 | Utah State | 3.3 | 3.7 | -0.4 |
51 | Northwestern | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
52 | Arizona | 2.2 | 2.5 | -0.3 |
53 | BYU | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
54 | Wake Forest | 2.1 | 2.4 | -0.3 |
55 | Purdue | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
56 | San Diego State | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
57 | Mississippi State | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
58 | Ohio | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.7 |
59 | Florida | 1.3 | 3.4 | -2.0 |
60 | UCLA | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
61 | Utah | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
62 | Louisiana Tech | 1.0 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
63 | Iowa | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
64 | Auburn | 0.9 | 1.7 | -0.8 |
65 | Rutgers | 0.8 | 1.4 | -0.5 |
66 | Kansas State | 0.5 | 1.6 | -1.1 |
67 | Florida International | 0.2 | 1.1 | -0.9 |
68 | Western Michigan | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.4 |
69 | Louisville | -0.3 | -1.8 | 1.6 |
70 | Tennessee | -0.7 | 0.8 | -1.5 |
71 | Syracuse | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
72 | UTEP | -0.9 | -2.2 | 1.3 |
73 | Pittsburgh | -1.0 | -1.4 | 0.4 |
74 | Hawaii | -1.0 | -1.2 | 0.2 |
75 | Texas Tech | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
76 | Air Force | -1.1 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
77 | Navy | -1.3 | 0.1 | -1.4 |
78 | Western Kentucky | -2.6 | -4.5 | 1.9 |
79 | UL-Monroe | -2.7 | -2.6 | -0.1 |
80 | Miami-OH | -2.7 | -4.3 | 1.5 |
81 | Maryland | -2.9 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
82 | Fresno State | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 |
83 | Middle Tennessee | -3.2 | -3.0 | -0.2 |
84 | UL-Lafayette | -3.2 | -4.6 | 1.4 |
85 | Bowling Green | -3.4 | -2.6 | -0.8 |
86 | East Carolina | -3.6 | -3.9 | 0.2 |
87 | Iowa State | -4.0 | -4.5 | 0.5 |
88 | NC State | -4.4 | -4.7 | 0.3 |
89 | Duke | -4.8 | -4.4 | -0.4 |
90 | Ball State | -5.1 | -6.1 | 1.0 |
91 | New Mexico State | -5.4 | -5.5 | 0.1 |
92 | Oregon State | -5.6 | -5.9 | 0.3 |
93 | Connecticut | -5.7 | -4.9 | -0.8 |
94 | Eastern Michigan | -6.4 | -6.9 | 0.5 |
95 | Marshall | -6.4 | -6.1 | -0.3 |
96 | Boston College | -6.5 | -7.6 | 1.2 |
97 | Washington State | -6.7 | -6.1 | -0.6 |
98 | Wyoming | -7.0 | -7.6 | 0.6 |
99 | Ole Miss | -7.1 | -7.6 | 0.5 |
100 | San Jose State | -7.8 | -8.7 | 0.9 |
101 | Rice | -8.1 | -8.2 | 0.1 |
102 | Central Michigan | -8.4 | -8.4 | -0.1 |
103 | Buffalo | -8.6 | -8.3 | -0.2 |
104 | Kent State | -8.6 | -9.2 | 0.6 |
105 | North Texas | -8.7 | -9.1 | 0.4 |
106 | Troy | -8.7 | -7.9 | -0.8 |
107 | Minnesota | -9.2 | -9.5 | 0.3 |
108 | Kentucky | -9.7 | -9.1 | -0.6 |
109 | Colorado | -10.4 | -8.9 | -1.5 |
110 | Indiana | -10.4 | -10.6 | 0.2 |
111 | Idaho | -10.9 | -11.2 | 0.3 |
112 | Akron | -11.9 | -13.3 | 1.4 |
113 | Kansas | -11.9 | -10.4 | -1.5 |
114 | Tulane | -12.1 | -11.8 | -0.4 |
115 | UAB | -12.7 | -14.1 | 1.4 |
116 | UNLV | -13.0 | -12.7 | -0.3 |
117 | Colorado State | -14.8 | -14.5 | -0.3 |
118 | Memphis | -17.8 | -18.7 | 0.9 |
119 | Florida Atlantic | -18.3 | -18.6 | 0.3 |
120 | New Mexico | -18.6 | -17.8 | -0.9 |
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