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Momentum Rankings

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By Bill C.
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KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 29: DeAnthony Arnett #13 of the Tennessee Volunteers is tackled by Brison Williams #11 of the South Carolina Gamecocks at Neyland Stadium on October 29, 2011 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 29: DeAnthony Arnett #13 of the Tennessee Volunteers is tackled by Brison Williams #11 of the South Carolina Gamecocks at Neyland Stadium on October 29, 2011 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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In last week's Varsity Numbers, I discussed a way to gauge teams' momentum using weighted Adj. Scoring Margin.

Wtd. Margin: This is an attempted look at momentum. If we weight each progressive game as ten percent more important than the one before it, some teams' Adj. Scoring Margins change. We can compare Wtd. Margin to the full 2011 Margin to get the DIFF column, which signifies the difference between the two numbers. Teams with a positive "DIFF" have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Teams with negative numbers have not. No. 30 TCU is coming on strong after a rocky start, while No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 33 Illinois and No. 40 Florida are dropping quickly.

I am using this measure for an upcoming bowl projections piece, so I wanted to go ahead and post this year's momentum rankings. They are below. And yes, South Carolina's defense has been so good recently that they are sixth despite a complete lack of offense.

(And yes, I'm going to try as hard as I can to produce that Excel data file this week. Thanks, as always, for your patience.)

Wtd Rank Team Wtd Margin Overall Margin DIFF
1 Alabama 34.3 34.3 0.0
2 LSU 24.1 24.4 -0.3
3 Oklahoma 23.8 24.7 -0.9
4 Boise State 23.4 23.5 -0.1
5 Oregon 19.6 20.0 -0.4
6 South Carolina 18.4 16.7 1.7
7 Wisconsin 18.0 18.1 -0.1
8 Florida State 17.0 16.3 0.7
9 Notre Dame 16.3 16.6 -0.3
10 Oklahoma State 15.4 15.2 0.2
11 Stanford 15.1 15.8 -0.8
12 Michigan State 15.0 16.2 -1.2
13 Georgia 14.7 15.3 -0.6
14 Houston 13.4 12.3 1.0
15 TCU 13.3 11.3 2.0
16 Michigan 12.8 13.4 -0.6
17 Penn State 12.7 14.1 -1.4
18 Missouri 12.5 12.7 -0.2
19 Virginia Tech 12.0 13.3 -1.3
20 Texas A&M 11.0 12.6 -1.6
21 Central Florida 10.4 12.0 -1.7
22 SMU 10.1 10.4 -0.3
23 Toledo 10.0 8.7 1.2
24 Texas 9.8 9.3 0.5
25 Cincinnati 9.6 8.4 1.2

Full list after the jump.

Wtd Rank Team Wtd Margin Overall Margin DIFF
26 West Virginia 9.6 8.6 1.0
27 USC 9.2 7.9 1.3
28 Nebraska 8.9 7.5 1.3
29 Baylor 8.7 10.3 -1.6
30 Illinois 7.9 9.5 -1.5
31 Miami-FL 7.8 6.6 1.1
32 South Florida 7.6 7.5 0.1
33 Temple 7.4 7.1 0.3
34 North Carolina 6.9 7.3 -0.4
35 Nevada 6.7 6.1 0.6
36 Tulsa 6.5 5.9 0.6
37 Arizona State 6.0 6.5 -0.5
38 Ohio State 5.9 6.6 -0.7
39 Southern Miss 5.8 4.9 0.9
40 Clemson 5.7 5.6 0.1
41 Northern Illinois 5.5 4.8 0.7
42 Army 5.3 3.2 2.1
43 Vanderbilt 4.5 3.3 1.1
44 Arkansas 4.5 5.0 -0.5
45 Washington 4.4 4.0 0.4
46 Georgia Tech 4.1 5.5 -1.4
47 Virginia 3.9 5.0 -1.1
48 Arkansas State 3.8 3.4 0.4
49 California 3.4 3.8 -0.4
50 Utah State 3.3 3.7 -0.4
51 Northwestern 2.6 1.9 0.8
52 Arizona 2.2 2.5 -0.3
53 BYU 2.1 1.6 0.5
54 Wake Forest 2.1 2.4 -0.3
55 Purdue 2.0 2.0 0.0
56 San Diego State 1.7 1.6 0.1
57 Mississippi State 1.6 1.5 0.1
58 Ohio 1.4 2.2 -0.7
59 Florida 1.3 3.4 -2.0
60 UCLA 1.3 1.4 -0.1
61 Utah 1.3 1.1 0.2
62 Louisiana Tech 1.0 1.4 -0.3
63 Iowa 0.9 0.8 0.2
64 Auburn 0.9 1.7 -0.8
65 Rutgers 0.8 1.4 -0.5
66 Kansas State 0.5 1.6 -1.1
67 Florida International 0.2 1.1 -0.9
68 Western Michigan -0.1 1.3 -1.4
69 Louisville -0.3 -1.8 1.6
70 Tennessee -0.7 0.8 -1.5
71 Syracuse -0.8 -0.2 -0.6
72 UTEP -0.9 -2.2 1.3
73 Pittsburgh -1.0 -1.4 0.4
74 Hawaii -1.0 -1.2 0.2
75 Texas Tech -1.1 -0.7 -0.4
76 Air Force -1.1 -1.4 0.3
77 Navy -1.3 0.1 -1.4
78 Western Kentucky -2.6 -4.5 1.9
79 UL-Monroe -2.7 -2.6 -0.1
80 Miami-OH -2.7 -4.3 1.5
81 Maryland -2.9 -1.9 -1.0
82 Fresno State -3.0 -4.0 1.0
83 Middle Tennessee -3.2 -3.0 -0.2
84 UL-Lafayette -3.2 -4.6 1.4
85 Bowling Green -3.4 -2.6 -0.8
86 East Carolina -3.6 -3.9 0.2
87 Iowa State -4.0 -4.5 0.5
88 NC State -4.4 -4.7 0.3
89 Duke -4.8 -4.4 -0.4
90 Ball State -5.1 -6.1 1.0
91 New Mexico State -5.4 -5.5 0.1
92 Oregon State -5.6 -5.9 0.3
93 Connecticut -5.7 -4.9 -0.8
94 Eastern Michigan -6.4 -6.9 0.5
95 Marshall -6.4 -6.1 -0.3
96 Boston College -6.5 -7.6 1.2
97 Washington State -6.7 -6.1 -0.6
98 Wyoming -7.0 -7.6 0.6
99 Ole Miss -7.1 -7.6 0.5
100 San Jose State -7.8 -8.7 0.9
101 Rice -8.1 -8.2 0.1
102 Central Michigan -8.4 -8.4 -0.1
103 Buffalo -8.6 -8.3 -0.2
104 Kent State -8.6 -9.2 0.6
105 North Texas -8.7 -9.1 0.4
106 Troy -8.7 -7.9 -0.8
107 Minnesota -9.2 -9.5 0.3
108 Kentucky -9.7 -9.1 -0.6
109 Colorado -10.4 -8.9 -1.5
110 Indiana -10.4 -10.6 0.2
111 Idaho -10.9 -11.2 0.3
112 Akron -11.9 -13.3 1.4
113 Kansas -11.9 -10.4 -1.5
114 Tulane -12.1 -11.8 -0.4
115 UAB -12.7 -14.1 1.4
116 UNLV -13.0 -12.7 -0.3
117 Colorado State -14.8 -14.5 -0.3
118 Memphis -17.8 -18.7 0.9
119 Florida Atlantic -18.3 -18.6 0.3
120 New Mexico -18.6 -17.8 -0.9

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