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Week Six F/+ Picks

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BERKELEY CA - NOVEMBER 13:  LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks runs with the ball against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 13 2010 in Berkeley California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
BERKELEY CA - NOVEMBER 13: LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks runs with the ball against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 13 2010 in Berkeley California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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After another poor week (one in which I thought I was actually doing quite well at the time), I went back to see how I was doing last year after five weeks. As I've mentioned before, the 'danger zone' for these picks, so to speak, is when I'm easing out of the preseason projections and into the opponent-adjusted numbers. Turns out, last year was quite a bit worse at this point:. a 44.4% win percentage. Week five itself last year: 15-34, a 30.6% win percentage. Yikes. In comparison

So, uh, that's something.

Last Week's Results


Week 5 Season Last Year
After 5 Wks
Type/Range
W-L
Win%
W-L
Win%
W-L
Win%
ALL GAMES
23-29-1 44.3% 115-115-2 50.0% 103-129-3 44.4%
Upset Picks 2-0 100.0% 11-11 50.0% 7-12-1 37.5%
0-5 point spread
8-7 53.3% 27-30-1 47.4% 30-31-1 49.2%
5-10 points
4-10-1 30.0% 30-28-2 51.7% 28-29 49.1%
10-20 points
7-9 43.8% 31-28 52.5% 21-46-1 31.6%
20-30 points
3-2 60.0% 17-21 44.7% 19-14 57.6%
30+ points
1-1 50.0% 7-6 53.8% 5-9 35.7%

This Week's Picks

Date Time (ET) Game Spread
(Home)
Winner ATS Pick
6-Oct 7:30 PM W. Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (ESPNU) -11.5 MTSU by 6.5 WKU
6-Oct 9:00 PM California at Oregon (ESPN) -24.0 Oregon by 26.7 Oregon
7-Oct 9:00 PM Boise State at Fresno State (ESPN) 20.5 Boise State by 26 Boise State
8-Oct 12:00 PM Mississippi State at UAB 18.0 Miss. St. by 17.2 UAB
8-Oct 12:00 PM Maryland at Georgia Tech (ESPNU) -14.0 Ga. Tech by 29.1 Ga. Tech
8-Oct 12:00 PM Louisville at North Carolina (ESPN2) -14.5 UNC by 20.5 UNC
8-Oct 12:00 PM Oklahoma at Texas (ABC) 10.0 Oklahoma by 17.5 Oklahoma
8-Oct 12:00 PM Connecticut at West Virginia (ESPN3) -20.0 WVU by 20 WVU
8-Oct 12:00 PM Minnesota at Purdue (ESPN) -10.5 Purdue by 3 Minnesota
8-Oct 12:21 PM Kentucky at South Carolina (SEC/ESPN3) -21.0 S. Carolina by 22.2 S. Carolina
8-Oct 12:30 PM Florida State at Wake Forest (ESPN3) 10.0 Florida St. by 13 Florida St.
8-Oct 12:30 PM Memphis at Rice -20.5 Rice by 12.8 Memphis
8-Oct 1:00 PM Army at Miami-OH (ESPN3) 2.5 Miami-OH by 9.4 Miami-OH
8-Oct 2:00 PM Florida International at Akron 19.0 FIU by 19.8 FIU
8-Oct 2:00 PM Temple at Ball State (NeuLion) 8.5 Temple by 10.8 Temple
8-Oct 2:00 PM Bowling Green at Western Michigan (ESPN3) -10.0 WMU by 14.6 WMU
8-Oct 2:30 PM Illinois at Indiana (BTN) 14.0 Illinois by 17.4 Illinois
8-Oct 3:00 PM Boston College at Clemson (ESPN3) -21.0 Clemson by 27.7 Clemson
8-Oct 3:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Toledo (ESPN3) -21.0 Toledo by 26.3 Toledo
8-Oct 3:30 PM Air Force at Notre Dame (NBC) -14.5 Irish by 30.1 Irish
8-Oct 3:30 PM Florida at LSU (CBS) -13.5 LSU by 11.3 Florida
8-Oct 3:30 PM Missouri at Kansas State (ABC) 3.0 Missouri by 0.4 Kansas St.
8-Oct 3:30 PM Central Michigan at NC State (ESPN3) -10.5 NC State by 11.4 NC State
8-Oct 3:30 PM Pittsburgh at Rutgers (ESPNU) 7.0 Pittsburgh by 4.8 Rutgers
8-Oct 3:30 PM Kansas at Oklahoma State (FSN) -31.5 OSU by 37.3 OSU
8-Oct 3:30 PM Arizona at Oregon State 2.0 Arizona by 0.7 Oregon St.
8-Oct 3:30 PM Iowa at Penn State (ABC/ESPN) -3.5 Penn State by 7 Penn State
8-Oct 3:30 PM Arizona State at Utah 4.0 Arizona St. by 4.4 Arizona St.
8-Oct 3:30 PM Miami-FL at Virginia Tech (ABC/ESPN) -7.5 Va. Tech by 14 Va. Tech
8-Oct 3:30 PM Ohio at Buffalo (ESPN3) 8.5 Ohio by 7.5 Buffalo
8-Oct 3:30 PM Southern Miss at Navy -2.5 Navy by 6.8 Navy
8-Oct 3:30 PM Kent State at Northern Illinois -17.0 NIU by 14.2 Kent State
8-Oct 5:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Idaho (NeuLion) 3.5 La. Tech by 8.4 La. Tech
8-Oct 7:00 PM Auburn at Arkansas (ESPN) -10.0 Arkansas by 16 Arkansas
8-Oct 7:00 PM Michigan at Northwestern (BTN) 7.0 Michigan by 22.1 Michigan
8-Oct 7:00 PM Iowa State at Baylor -14.5 Baylor by 14.1 Iowa State
8-Oct 7:00 PM East Carolina at Houston -10.0 Houston by 8.2 ECU
8-Oct 7:00 PM Troy at UL-Lafayette (ESPN3) 6.5 Troy by 0.6 UL-Lafayette
8-Oct 7:00 PM Vanderbilt at Alabama (ESPNU) -29.0 Alabama by 44.9 Alabama
8-Oct 7:00 PM Marshall at Central Florida -18.0 UCF by 19.8 UCF
8-Oct 7:00 PM Arkansas State at UL-Monroe (NeuLion) 2.5 ASU by 6.2 ASU
8-Oct 7:00 PM UNLV at Nevada (ESPN3) -20.5 Nevada by 24.4 Nevada
8-Oct 7:00 PM Georgia at Tennessee (ESPN2) 2.0 Tennessee by 7.9 Tennessee
8-Oct 7:00 PM Texas A&M at Texas Tech (FX) 9.0 Texas A&M by 12.9 Texas A&M
8-Oct 7:30 PM Colorado at Stanford (VS) -29.0 Stanford by 32.9 Stanford
8-Oct 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic at North Texas (ESPN3) -3.5 North Texas by 4.1 North Texas
8-Oct 8:00 PM Ohio State at Nebraska (ABC) -11.0 Nebraska by 1.9 Ohio State
8-Oct 8:00 PM Wyoming at Utah State (ESPN3) -11.0 Utah State by 12.9 Utah State
8-Oct 8:00 PM Syracuse at Tulane 10.5 Syracuse by 10.3 Tulane
8-Oct 10:15 PM San Jose State at BYU (ESPNU) -13.5 BYU by 15.5 BYU
8-Oct 10:30 PM TCU at San Diego State 3.5 TCU by 6.1 TCU
8-Oct 10:30 PM Washington State at UCLA -4.0 UCLA by 5.1 UCLA