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After another poor week (one in which I thought I was actually doing quite well at the time), I went back to see how I was doing last year after five weeks. As I've mentioned before, the 'danger zone' for these picks, so to speak, is when I'm easing out of the preseason projections and into the opponent-adjusted numbers. Turns out, last year was quite a bit worse at this point:. a 44.4% win percentage. Week five itself last year: 15-34, a 30.6% win percentage. Yikes. In comparison
So, uh, that's something.
Last Week's Results
| Week 5 | Season | Last Year After 5 Wks |
||||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
23-29-1 | 44.3% | 115-115-2 | 50.0% | 103-129-3 | 44.4% |
| Upset Picks | 2-0 | 100.0% | 11-11 | 50.0% | 7-12-1 | 37.5% |
| 0-5 point spread |
8-7 | 53.3% | 27-30-1 | 47.4% | 30-31-1 | 49.2% |
| 5-10 points |
4-10-1 | 30.0% | 30-28-2 | 51.7% | 28-29 | 49.1% |
| 10-20 points |
7-9 | 43.8% | 31-28 | 52.5% | 21-46-1 | 31.6% |
| 20-30 points |
3-2 | 60.0% | 17-21 | 44.7% | 19-14 | 57.6% |
| 30+ points |
1-1 | 50.0% | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-9 | 35.7% |
This Week's Picks
| Date | Time (ET) | Game | Spread (Home) |
Winner | ATS Pick |
| 6-Oct | 7:30 PM | W. Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (ESPNU) | -11.5 | MTSU by 6.5 | WKU |
| 6-Oct | 9:00 PM | California at Oregon (ESPN) | -24.0 | Oregon by 26.7 | Oregon |
| 7-Oct | 9:00 PM | Boise State at Fresno State (ESPN) | 20.5 | Boise State by 26 | Boise State |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Mississippi State at UAB | 18.0 | Miss. St. by 17.2 | UAB |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Maryland at Georgia Tech (ESPNU) | -14.0 | Ga. Tech by 29.1 | Ga. Tech |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Louisville at North Carolina (ESPN2) | -14.5 | UNC by 20.5 | UNC |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma at Texas (ABC) | 10.0 | Oklahoma by 17.5 | Oklahoma |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Connecticut at West Virginia (ESPN3) | -20.0 | WVU by 20 | WVU |
| 8-Oct | 12:00 PM | Minnesota at Purdue (ESPN) | -10.5 | Purdue by 3 | Minnesota |
| 8-Oct | 12:21 PM | Kentucky at South Carolina (SEC/ESPN3) | -21.0 | S. Carolina by 22.2 | S. Carolina |
| 8-Oct | 12:30 PM | Florida State at Wake Forest (ESPN3) | 10.0 | Florida St. by 13 | Florida St. |
| 8-Oct | 12:30 PM | Memphis at Rice | -20.5 | Rice by 12.8 | Memphis |
| 8-Oct | 1:00 PM | Army at Miami-OH (ESPN3) | 2.5 | Miami-OH by 9.4 | Miami-OH |
| 8-Oct | 2:00 PM | Florida International at Akron | 19.0 | FIU by 19.8 | FIU |
| 8-Oct | 2:00 PM | Temple at Ball State (NeuLion) | 8.5 | Temple by 10.8 | Temple |
| 8-Oct | 2:00 PM | Bowling Green at Western Michigan (ESPN3) | -10.0 | WMU by 14.6 | WMU |
| 8-Oct | 2:30 PM | Illinois at Indiana (BTN) | 14.0 | Illinois by 17.4 | Illinois |
| 8-Oct | 3:00 PM | Boston College at Clemson (ESPN3) | -21.0 | Clemson by 27.7 | Clemson |
| 8-Oct | 3:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Toledo (ESPN3) | -21.0 | Toledo by 26.3 | Toledo |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Air Force at Notre Dame (NBC) | -14.5 | Irish by 30.1 | Irish |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Florida at LSU (CBS) | -13.5 | LSU by 11.3 | Florida |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Missouri at Kansas State (ABC) | 3.0 | Missouri by 0.4 | Kansas St. |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Central Michigan at NC State (ESPN3) | -10.5 | NC State by 11.4 | NC State |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Pittsburgh at Rutgers (ESPNU) | 7.0 | Pittsburgh by 4.8 | Rutgers |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Kansas at Oklahoma State (FSN) | -31.5 | OSU by 37.3 | OSU |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Arizona at Oregon State | 2.0 | Arizona by 0.7 | Oregon St. |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Iowa at Penn State (ABC/ESPN) | -3.5 | Penn State by 7 | Penn State |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Arizona State at Utah | 4.0 | Arizona St. by 4.4 | Arizona St. |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Miami-FL at Virginia Tech (ABC/ESPN) | -7.5 | Va. Tech by 14 | Va. Tech |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Ohio at Buffalo (ESPN3) | 8.5 | Ohio by 7.5 | Buffalo |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Southern Miss at Navy | -2.5 | Navy by 6.8 | Navy |
| 8-Oct | 3:30 PM | Kent State at Northern Illinois | -17.0 | NIU by 14.2 | Kent State |
| 8-Oct | 5:00 PM | Louisiana Tech at Idaho (NeuLion) | 3.5 | La. Tech by 8.4 | La. Tech |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Auburn at Arkansas (ESPN) | -10.0 | Arkansas by 16 | Arkansas |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Michigan at Northwestern (BTN) | 7.0 | Michigan by 22.1 | Michigan |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Iowa State at Baylor | -14.5 | Baylor by 14.1 | Iowa State |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | East Carolina at Houston | -10.0 | Houston by 8.2 | ECU |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Troy at UL-Lafayette (ESPN3) | 6.5 | Troy by 0.6 | UL-Lafayette |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Vanderbilt at Alabama (ESPNU) | -29.0 | Alabama by 44.9 | Alabama |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Marshall at Central Florida | -18.0 | UCF by 19.8 | UCF |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Arkansas State at UL-Monroe (NeuLion) | 2.5 | ASU by 6.2 | ASU |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | UNLV at Nevada (ESPN3) | -20.5 | Nevada by 24.4 | Nevada |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Georgia at Tennessee (ESPN2) | 2.0 | Tennessee by 7.9 | Tennessee |
| 8-Oct | 7:00 PM | Texas A&M at Texas Tech (FX) | 9.0 | Texas A&M by 12.9 | Texas A&M |
| 8-Oct | 7:30 PM | Colorado at Stanford (VS) | -29.0 | Stanford by 32.9 | Stanford |
| 8-Oct | 7:30 PM | Florida Atlantic at North Texas (ESPN3) | -3.5 | North Texas by 4.1 | North Texas |
| 8-Oct | 8:00 PM | Ohio State at Nebraska (ABC) | -11.0 | Nebraska by 1.9 | Ohio State |
| 8-Oct | 8:00 PM | Wyoming at Utah State (ESPN3) | -11.0 | Utah State by 12.9 | Utah State |
| 8-Oct | 8:00 PM | Syracuse at Tulane | 10.5 | Syracuse by 10.3 | Tulane |
| 8-Oct | 10:15 PM | San Jose State at BYU (ESPNU) | -13.5 | BYU by 15.5 | BYU |
| 8-Oct | 10:30 PM | TCU at San Diego State | 3.5 | TCU by 6.1 | TCU |
| 8-Oct | 10:30 PM | Washington State at UCLA | -4.0 | UCLA by 5.1 | UCLA |
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