Oklahoma 55, Texas 17
|Close %||52.6%||STANDARD DOWNS|
|Field Position %||59.2%||39.5%||Success Rate||42.9%||43.1%|
|Close Success Rate||43.8%||37.5%||Success Rate||31.8%||26.7%|
|Close Success Rate||16.7%||35.7%||Turnover Pts||4.8||35.8|
|Close PPP||0.08||0.11||Turnover Pts Margin||+31.0||-31.0|
|Line Yards/carry||0.98||0.79||Q1 S&P||0.776||0.611|
|Close Success Rate||52.8%||38.9%|
|Close PPP||0.59||0.00||1st Down S&P||0.864||0.689|
|Close S&P||1.118||0.393||2nd Down S&P||0.647||0.359|
|SD/PD Sack Rate||0.0% / 4.8%||0.0% / 30.8%||3rd Down S&P||1.038||0.263|
|Projected Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +53.2 | Actual Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +38|
I mentioned before the game that I was curious about whether Oklahoma receiver Jaz Reynolds could keep up his recent hot streak, and about whether any defense could handle the Sooners if all three receiving weapons got hot. I called it the saturation point. Well ... Texas' defense was saturated on Saturday. Ryan Broyles and Reynolds combined to catch 15 of 21 passes targeting them, for 214 yards (10.2 per target) and a touchdown. And though Kenny Stills was iffy overall (12 targets, five catches), he was automatic near the goal line, where he caught two touchdowns. With these three clicking and running back Dom Whaley (13 carries, 83 yards; four catches, 34 yards) improving each week, it is difficult to see this offense getting grounded again like they were against Florida State.
- With a good gameplan and solid leverage rate, Texas should be able to move the ball against a lot of defenses, even with ridiculously young talent at quarterback (Case McCoy and David Ash), running back (Malcolm Brown) and receiver (Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis). But Saturday showed what can happen to a young offense still finding its way: it could get absolutely obliterated on passing downs. The Oklahoma offense wasn't amazing on passing downs, but Texas would have just been better off punting as soon as they hit second- or third-and-long. Frank Alexander and Ronnell Lewis in particular were just devastating for the Sooners.
- Both defensive lines looked outstanding against the run. Whaley broke off a long run after the game was out of hand, but early on, before all hope was lost, he was having to make moves in the backfield as soon as he got the ball, and it led to pretty brutal close-game rushing numbers for OU.
- In all, there's quite a bit to like about the Texas defense, but obviously that won't matter without better playmaking from the offense. Looking at the Horns' close-game PPP, it would take them approximately 120 plays to score six points under normal circumstances. That, uh, isn't very good.
- Also a good idea for Texas moving forward: don't give away five touchdowns' worth of turnovers. Just a thought.
Quick glossary after the jump.
A Quick Glossary
F/+ Rankings: The official rankings for the college portion of Football Outsiders. They combine my own S&P+ rankings (based on play-by-play data) with Brian Fremeau's drives-based FEI rankings.
Passing Downs: Second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more.
PPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
S&P+: Think of this as an OPS (the "On-Base Plus Slugging" baseball measure) for football. The 'S' stands for success rates, a common Football Outsiders efficiency measure that basically serves as on-base percentage. The 'P' stands for PPP+, an explosiveness measure that stands for EqPts Per Play. The "+" means it has been adjusted for the level of opponent, obviously a key to any good measure in college football. S&P+ is measured for all non-garbage time plays in a given college football game. Plays are counted within the following criteria: when the score is within 28 points in the first quarter, within 24 points in the second quarter, within 21 points in the third quarter, and within 16 points (i.e. two possession) in the fourth quarter. For more about this measure, visit the main S&P+ page at Football Outsiders.
Standard Downs: First downs, second-and-6 or less, third-and-4 or less.
Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.