2012 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-5 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 84
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Kentucky 3-14 L 17.9 - 21.9 L
10-Sep Navy 14-40 L 20.5 - 30.7 L
17-Sep Indiana State 16-44 L 20.2 - 33.7 L
1-Oct Arkansas State 22-26 L 29.7 - 29.0 W
6-Oct at Middle Tennessee 36-33 W 24.7 - 29.7 L
15-Oct at Florida Atlantic 20-0 W 24.9 - 18.4 W
22-Oct UL-Lafayette 42-23 W 38.4 - 31.0 W
29-Oct at UL-Monroe 31-28 W 29.9 - 28.6 W
5-Nov Florida International 10-9 W 27.7 - 17.5 W
12-Nov at LSU 9-42 L 25.1 - 33.4 L
19-Nov at North Texas 31-21 W 27.8 - 30.6 L
26-Nov Troy 41-18 W 31.0 - 31.5 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.9 89 24.8 55
Adj. Points Per Game 26.5 81 28.0 63

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Austin Peay NR
8-Sep at Alabama 1
15-Sep at Kentucky 83
22-Sep Southern Miss 46
29-Sep at Arkansas State 87
11-Oct at Troy 100
20-Oct UL-Monroe 90
27-Oct at Florida International 56
1-Nov Middle Tennessee 113
10-Nov Florida Atlantic 114
17-Nov at UL-Lafayette 99
24-Nov North Texas 106
Five-Year F/+ Rk 110
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 88
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -3 / +0.7
TO Luck/Game -1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (9, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 89 86 78 94
RUSHING 35 65 62 70
PASSING 101 95 87 97
Standard Downs 82 66 85
Passing Downs 101 101 95
Redzone 83 81 87
Q1 Rk 103 1st Down Rk 81
Q2 Rk 96 2nd Down Rk 101
Q3 Rk 52 3rd Down Rk 60
Q4 Rk 81
Adj. Line Yards Rk 60
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 83

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kawaun Jakes 6'3, 189 Sr. ** (5.0) 153 276 1,854 55.4% 10 12 21 7.1% 5.8
Brandon Doughty 6'3, 203 So. *** (5.5) 13 22 106 59.1% 0 1 1 4.3% 4.2

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Bobby Rainey RB 369 1,695 4.6 1.6 13 -9.5
Kawaun Jakes QB 6'3, 189 Sr. ** (5.0) 51 291 5.7 2.1 2 +2.4
Keshawn Simpson RB 6'0, 236 Jr. ** (5.0) 32 134 4.2 1.1 1 +0.5
Kadeem Jones FB 5'11, 270 Jr. ** (5.3) 31 90 2.9 0.4 7 +6.0
Antonio Andrews RB 6'0, 201 Jr. *** (5.5) 15 42 2.8 0.8 0 -3.7
Anthony Wales RB 5'9, 170 Fr. *** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Jack Doyle TE 6'6, 248 Sr. NR 79 52 614 65.8% 28.9% 50.6% 7.0
Willie McNeal (2010^) WR 5'10, 164 So. ** (4.9) 62 26 360 41.9% 22.0% N/A 5.8
Bobby Rainey RB 47 36 361 76.6% 17.2% 46.8% 8.6
Rico Brown WR-Z 5'11, 186 So. ** (5.4) 28 13 185 46.4% 10.3% 71.4% 6.4
Marcus Vasquez WR 6'1, 193 Sr. ** (5.2) 21 11 134 52.4% 7.7% 71.4% 3.5
Boe Brand WR-ZE 6'0, 153 So. *** (5.5) 23 14 140 60.9% 8.4% 47.8% 4.8
Dexter Haynes WR 6'4, 189 Sr. ** (4.9) 17 6 102 35.3% 6.2% 58.8% -0.9
Joel German WR-X 6'0, 186 So. ** (5.3) 16 8 87 50.0% 5.9% 62.5% 3.4
Mitchell Henry TE 6'4, 247 So. *** (5.5) 14 8 105 57.1% 5.1% 71.4% 7.1
Kadeem Jones FB 5'11, 270 Jr. ** (5.3) 14 11 107 78.6% 5.1% 42.9% 9.2
Ryan Wallace TE 6'5, 248 Sr. *** (5.5) 3 1 18 33.3% 1.1% 100.0% 6.0
Austin Aikens WR 6'0, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ McNeal missed 2011 with a knee injury.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Wes Jeffries LT 46 career starts, 2011 1st All-Sun Belt
Adam Smith RG 6'5, 334 Sr. ** (5.1) 34 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Sun Belt
Sean Conway C 6'3, 301 Jr. ** (5.1) 24 career starts
Luis Polanco LG 6'2, 289 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 career starts
Cameron Clemmons RT 6'6, 291 So. *** (5.6) 8 career starts
Seth White RG 6'5, 290 Sr. ** (4.9) 6 career starts
Luke Stansfield LG 6'4, 303 Sr. ** (5.0) 3 career starts
Ed Hazelett LT 6'8, 309 Jr. *** (5.6)
William Berner C 6'3, 283 So. ** (5.3)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 53 97 52 110
RUSHING 43 85 19 112
PASSING 77 98 91 100
Standard Downs 92 39 105
Passing Downs 109 109 110
Q1 Rk 106 1st Down Rk 106
Q2 Rk 91 2nd Down Rk 79
Q3 Rk 91 3rd Down Rk 97
Q4 Rk 73
Adj. Line Yards Rk 27
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 31

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Quanterus Smith DE 6'5, 244 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 30.5 5.3% 11 7.5
Jamarcus Allen DT 5'11, 282 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 27.0 4.7% 7 2 1
Jared Clendenin DT 9 24.0 4.2% 9 3.5 1 3
Bo Adebayo DE 12 21.5 3.7% 8.5 4 1
Kenny Martin DT 6'0, 290 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 13.5 2.3% 1.5 0.5 2
Rammell Lewis DT 6'2, 294 Sr. ** (4.9) 8 6.5 1.1% 1
Tevin Holliman DE 6'2, 261 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 4.5 0.8% 0.5 1
Jamichael Payne DT 6'1, 350 So. ** (5.4) 8 4.5 0.8% 1 1 1
Tyrone Pearson DT 6'3, 265 Fr. *** (5.7) 0.0 0.0%
Calvin Washington DE 6'4, 270 Jr. *** (5.6) 0.0 0.0%

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Andrew Jackson MLB 6'1, 255 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 75.0 13.0% 17 3.5 1 1 1 1
Xavius Boyd SAM 6'2, 215 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 36.5 6.3% 3.5 1.5 1 1 2
Ben Duvall WLB 12 30.5 5.3% 5.5 1.5
Terran Williams WLB 6'2, 206 So. *** (5.5) 12 17.0 2.9% 2 1 2
C.J. Odom MLB 10 6.5 1.1% 1
Bar'ee Boyd LB 5'10, 220 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 5.5 1.0% 1 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kareem Peterson FS 5'11, 184 Sr. ** (5.2) 9 41.5 7.2% 0.5 3 5 1
Derrius Brooks CB 12 40.5 7.0% 4 10 1 1
Tyree Robinson CB 5'10, 196 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 37.5 6.5% 2 6 1
Ryan Beard SS 10 35.5 6.1% 3.5 5 2
Arius Wright CB 5'10, 188 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 30.5 5.3% 3.5 1 5
Kiante Young SS 5'11, 220 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 24.5 4.2% 0.5 2 4
Cam Thomas CB 6'1, 185 So. *** (5.5) 9 24.0 4.2% 0.5 1 2
Vince Williams DB 5'9, 189 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 16.5 2.9% 1 1 1
Jamal Forrest CB 5'9, 166 Sr. ** (5.1) 3 0.0 0.0%
Jonathan Dowling (2010^) DB 6'3, 195 So. **** (5.8) 2
Brett Harrington DB 6'1, 195 Jr. *** (5.5)

^ Dowling transferred from Florida and is eligible this fall.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Hendrix Brakefield 6'4, 226 Jr. 64 41.6 5 13 24 57.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jesse Roy 6'0, 175 So. 47 58.7 1 2.1%
Monte Merrick 6'1, 172 Sr. 3 54.3 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Casey Tinius 13-13 1-6 16.7% 2-7 28.6%
Jesse Roy 6'0, 175 So. 17-20 1-3 33.3% 1-3 33.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Antonio Andrews KR 6'0, 201 Jr. 18 28.1 0
John Evans KR 5'11, 159 So. 18 32.2 1
Willie McNeal (2010) KR 5'10, 164 So. 44 20.7 1
John Evans PR 5'11, 159 So. 17 5.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 45
Net Punting 33
Net Kickoffs 82
Touchback Pct 112
Field Goal Pct 120
Kick Returns Avg 5
Punt Returns Avg 97

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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