2012 Vanderbilt Commodores Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom.

2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 46
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Elon 45-14 W 26.6 - 29.3 L
10-Sep Connecticut 24-21 W 20.8 - 15.8 W
17-Sep Ole Miss 30-7 W 23.4 - 24.9 L
24-Sep at South Carolina 3-21 L 14.7 - 22.7 L
8-Oct at Alabama 0-34 L 30.6 - 28.7 W
15-Oct Georgia 28-33 L 30.2 - 29.2 W
22-Oct Army 44-21 W 29.8 - 21.0 W
29-Oct Arkansas 28-31 L 29.1 - 25.1 W
5-Nov at Florida 21-26 L 32.4 - 30.8 W
12-Nov Kentucky 38-8 W 32.8 - 27.0 W
19-Nov at Tennessee 21-27 L 22.5 - 29.9 L
26-Nov at Wake Forest 41-7 W 33.1 - 24.1 W
31-Dec vs Cincinnati 24-31 L 24.8 - 23.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.7 61 21.6 29
Adj. Points Per Game 27.0 70 25.5 28

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug South Carolina 17
8-Sep at Northwestern 68
15-Sep Presbyterian NR
22-Sep at Georgia 8
6-Oct at Missouri 28
13-Oct Florida 10
20-Oct Auburn 22
27-Oct Massachusetts 117
3-Nov at Kentucky 64
10-Nov at Ole Miss 59
17-Nov Tennessee 27
24-Nov at Wake Forest 81
Five-Year F/+ Rk 73
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 56
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +1 / +3.4
TO Luck/Game -0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (9, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 98 42 63 27
RUSHING 47 10 14 12
PASSING 97 80 109 58
Standard Downs 79 91 61
Passing Downs 12 12 13
Redzone 84 103 63
Q1 Rk 57 1st Down Rk 67
Q2 Rk 23 2nd Down Rk 41
Q3 Rk 67 3rd Down Rk 45
Q4 Rk 56
Adj. Line Yards Rk 44
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 79

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Austyn Carta-Samuels (2010^) 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 154 252 1,702 61.1% 9 8 29 10.3% 5.3
Jordan Rodgers 6'1, 212 Sr. *** (5.7) 108 216 1,524 50.0% 9 10 12 5.3% 6.3
Larry Smith


68 123 668 55.3% 5 6 15 10.9% 4.1
Patton Robinette 6'4, 204 Fr. *** (5.6)








^ Carta-Samuels is a Wyoming transfer, eligible this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Zac Stacy RB 5'9, 210 Sr. *** (5.6) 201 1,193 5.9 2.9 14 +24.7
Jordan Rodgers QB 6'1, 212 Sr. *** (5.7) 105 505 4.8 1.5 4 +3.1
Austyn Carta-Samuels (2010) QB 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 88 608 6.9 3.0 3 +17.6
Jerron Seymour RB 5'7, 190 So. *** (5.5) 83 268 3.2 1.0 5 -1.3
Warren Norman (2010^) RB 5'10, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 77 459 6.0 3.1 4 +5.7
Larry Smith QB 27 116 4.3 1.8 2 +2.4
Micah Powell RB


19 60 3.2 0.5 0 -4.6
Jonathan Krause WR 5'11, 181 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 62 5.2 2.2 0 -0.3
Brian Kimbrow RB 5'9, 180 Fr. **** (5.8)




^ Norman missed the 2011 season with injury.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Jordan Matthews WR 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 84 41 778 48.8% 26.5% 52.4% 5.5
Chris Boyd WR-Z 6'4, 205 So. *** (5.5) 55 31 473 56.4% 17.4% 47.3% 7.1
Jonathan Krause WR 5'11, 181 Jr. *** (5.5) 48 23 171 47.9% 15.1% 45.8% 1.7
Wesley Tate WR 6'1, 215 Jr. *** (5.5) 39 22 187 56.4% 12.3% 51.3% 3.6
Brandon Barden TE 27 16 243 59.3% 8.5% 59.3% 7.5
Zac Stacy RB 5'9, 210 Sr. *** (5.6) 26 20 106 76.9% 8.2% 30.8% 5.2
Jerron Seymour RB 5'7, 190 So. *** (5.5) 11 9 108 81.8% 3.5% 45.5% 10.0
Fitz Lassing FB 6'3, 240 Jr. ** (5.4) 9 5 54 55.6% 2.8% 33.3% 5.9
Udom Umoh WR 6 3 16 50.0% 1.9% 83.3% 0.9
Austin Monahan TE 6'6, 252 Sr. ** (5.4) 5 3 40 60.0% 1.6% 60.0% 7.0
Dillon van der Wal TE 6'7, 255 So. *** (5.7)
Josh Grady WR 6'0, 188 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Jacquese Kirk WR 6'0, 175 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Steven Scheu TE 6'5, 255 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kyle Fischer RT 38 career starts
Wesley Johnson LT 6'5, 285 Jr. *** (5.7) 25 career starts
Ryan Seymour LG 6'5, 300 Sr. ** (5.2) 22 career starts
Jabo Burrow LG


10 career starts
Mylon Brown RG


8 career starts
Andrew Bridges RT 6'6, 275 So. *** (5.5) 5 career starts
Caleb Welchans C


5 career starts
Josh Jelesky RG 6'5, 290 Sr. ** (5.4) 5 career starts
Chase White RT 6'5, 285 So. ** (5.3) 3 career starts
Spencer Pulley C 6'4, 290 So. *** (5.5)
Joe Townsend LG 6'4, 295 So. ** (5.3)
James Lewis LT 6'5, 295 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Jake Bernstein RG 6'4, 295 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Andrew Jelks OL 6'6, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)
Adam Butler OL 6'4, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)
Will Holden OL 6'6, 290 Fr. *** (5.7)
Kevin McCoy OL 6'5, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 18 30 50 20
RUSHING 36 45 72 25
PASSING 18 24 36 21
Standard Downs 18 26 15
Passing Downs 42 62 32
Redzone 64 65 57
Q1 Rk 23 1st Down Rk 18
Q2 Rk 51 2nd Down Rk 20
Q3 Rk 41 3rd Down Rk 55
Q4 Rk 11
Adj. Line Yards Rk 33
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 74

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Rob Lohr DT 6'4, 290 Sr. ** (5.4) N/A 31.0 4.4% 11.5 5 1 2 1
Tim Fugger DE N/A 27.0 3.8% 13.5 8 4 3 1
Walker May DE 6'5, 250 Jr. ** (5.2) N/A 23.5 3.3% 4.5 3 2
Colt Nichter DT 6'1, 288 Sr. ** (5.2) N/A 20.0 2.8% 1 1
Johnell Thomas DE 6'0, 250 Sr. ** (5.2) N/A 19.5 2.7% 4 2
Vince Taylor DT 6'2, 304 So. *** (5.7) N/A 9.0 1.3% 1.5 1
T.J. Greenstone DT N/A 8.0 1.1% 4 2
Jared Morse DT 6'2, 295 Jr. *** (5.6) N/A 7.0 1.0% 2 2
Thad McHaney DE 6'5, 275 Jr. *** (5.5) N/A 6.0 0.8% 1
Kyle Woestmann DE 6'3, 255 So. *** (5.7) N/A 6.0 0.8% 1
Barron Dixon DT 6'4, 295 So. *** (5.6) N/A 2.5 0.4% 1
Caleb Azubike DE 6'4, 245 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Chris Marve MLB N/A 70.0 9.9% 8.5 3 1 3 1
Archibald Barnes WLB 6'4, 235 Sr. ** (5.1) N/A 48.0 6.8% 4.5 2 2 4 3
Chase Garnham MLB 6'3, 234 Jr. ** (5.4) N/A 40.5 5.7% 5.5 2 1 1
Karl Butler SLB 6'1, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) N/A 22.5 3.2% 2 1
Al Owens SLB


N/A 16.0 2.3% 2
Tristan Strong SLB

N/A 14.5 2.0% 0.5 2
DeAndre Jones MLB


N/A 14.0 2.0% 1 1 1
Kellen Williams MLB 6'1, 215 RSFr. NR N/A
Darreon Herring WLB 6'2, 220 Fr. *** (5.7)
Jacob Sealand LB 6'2, 220 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Casey Hayward CB N/A 54.0 7.6% 7.5 7 10
Sean Richardson SS N/A 52.0 7.3% 6.5 2 1 3
Kenny Ladler FS 6'0, 205 Jr. *** (5.7) N/A 45.0 6.3% 1 1 3
Javon Marshall SS 5'10, 195 Jr. ** (5.2) N/A 37.0 5.2% 0.5 2 4
Trey Wilson CB 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.6) N/A 27.0 3.8% 3 8
Eric Samuels SS 6'0, 200 Sr. *** (5.6) N/A 22.0 3.1% 1 1
Andre Hal CB 6'0, 184 Jr. *** (5.6) N/A 19.0 2.7% 1 1
Steven Clarke CB 5'10, 195 Jr. ** (5.4) N/A 14.0 2.0% 1.5 1 1 1 2
Eddie Foster CB 5'10, 172 Sr. *** (5.5) N/A 6.0 0.8% 1 1
Derek King CB 5'11, 196 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Drew Williamson FS 6'1, 205 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Richard Kent 6'2, 205 Sr. 64 42.5 4 12 23 54.7%
Ryan Fowler 5'10, 175 Sr. 3 30.7 0 1 1 66.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Carey Spear 5'10, 190 Jr. 64 64.4 10 15.6%
Ryan Fowler 5'10, 175 Sr. 1 68 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Carey Spear 5'10, 190 Jr. 26-27 4-6 66.7% 0-1 0.0%
Ryan Fowler 5'10, 175 Sr. 19-19 4-6 66.7% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Andre Hal KR 6'0, 184 Jr. 31 23.8 1
Steven Clarke KR 5'10, 195 Jr. 11 22.1 0
Jonathan Krause PR 5'11, 182 Jr. 19 4.1 0
John Cole PR 5'10, 180 Sr. 5 6.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 73
Net Punting 23
Net Kickoffs 23
Touchback Pct 56
Field Goal Pct 106
Kick Returns Avg 54
Punt Returns Avg 85

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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