2012 Utah State Aggies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 70
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Auburn 38-42 L 29.8 - 33.3 L
10-Sep Weber State 54-17 W 34.4 - 23.1 W
24-Sep Colorado State 34-35 L 27.0 - 26.8 W
30-Sep at BYU 24-27 L 32.8 - 28.7 W
8-Oct Wyoming 63-19 W 36.9 - 28.9 W
15-Oct at Fresno State 21-31 L 23.9 - 28.7 L
22-Oct Louisiana Tech 17-24 L 26.5 - 25.8 W
5-Nov at Hawaii 35-31 W 33.7 - 29.9 W
12-Nov San Jose State 34-33 W 30.6 - 28.3 W
19-Nov at Idaho 49-42 W 32.9 - 32.8 W
26-Nov Nevada 21-17 W 30.6 - 29.2 W
3-Dec at New Mexico State 24-21 W 27.0 - 29.3 L
17-Dec vs Ohio 23-24 L 31.8 - 29.3 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 33.6 23 27.9 68
Adj. Points Per Game 30.6 21 28.8 80

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Southern Utah NR
7-Sep Utah 33
15-Sep at Wisconsin 18
22-Sep at Colorado State 102
29-Sep UNLV 119
5-Oct at BYU 34
13-Oct at San Jose State 110
20-Oct New Mexico State 121
27-Oct at UT-San Antonio 109
3-Nov Texas State 122
17-Nov at Louisiana Tech 52
24-Nov Idaho 118
Five-Year F/+ Rk 100
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 95
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / +0.8
TO Luck/Game -3.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (5, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 20 41 37 45
RUSHING 6 27 25 27
PASSING 97 59 76 54
Standard Downs 54 57 55
Passing Downs 16 17 20
Redzone 37 50 32
Q1 Rk 42 1st Down Rk 70
Q2 Rk 57 2nd Down Rk 28
Q3 Rk 32 3rd Down Rk 12
Q4 Rk 57
Adj. Line Yards Rk 20
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 77

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chuckie Keeton 6'2, 185 So. ** (5.3) 106 174 1,200 60.9% 11 2 10 5.4% 6.1
Adam Kennedy 6'5, 218 Sr. *** (5.6) 76 110 972 69.1% 11 4 7 6.0% 8.1

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Robert Turbin RB

249 1,527 6.1 2.6 19 +18.9
Michael Smith RB 115 885 7.7 4.0 9 +22.9
Kerwynn Williams RB 5'9, 184 Sr. ** (5.2) 81 542 6.7 2.8 3 +8.5
Chuckie Keeton QB 6'2, 185 So. ** (5.3) 58 367 6.3 2.8 4 +1.8
Adam Kennedy QB 6'5, 218 Sr. *** (5.6) 48 260 5.4 1.3 0 -3.4
Stanley Morrison QB 14 97 6.9 3.8 0 +0.2
Robert Marshall RB 6'1, 231 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 61 4.7 0.7 1 +0.5
Tavarreon Dickerson RB 5'9, 163 Fr. *** (5.5)




Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Matt Austin WR-X 6'2, 198 Sr. NR 56 34 465 60.7% 20.5% 50.0% 6.9
Stanley Morrison WR-T 43 29 441 67.4% 15.8% 62.8% 9.9
Chuck Jacobs WR-Z 6'0, 174 Sr. *** (5.6) 38 20 218 52.6% 13.9% 71.1% 5.8
Robert Turbin



23 17 184 73.9% 8.4% 56.5% 8.6
Travis Van Leeuwen WR-Z 6'3, 185 Jr. ** (5.2) 20 15 221 75.0% 7.3% 55.0% 11.9
Eric Moats WR-Y 21 16 180 76.2% 7.7% 47.6% 8.5
Michael Smith RB 20 15 154 75.0% 7.3% 45.0% 7.8
D.J. Tialavea TE 6'4, 253 Jr. ** (4.9) 12 7 74 58.3% 4.4% 75.0% 3.9
Tarren Lloyd TE 17 12 99 70.6% 6.2% 29.4% 5.1
Xavier Martin WR-X 7 6 91 85.7% 2.6% 42.9% 13.1
Alex Wheat WR 6'5, 210 Jr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Philip Gapelu RG 38 career starts, 2011 1st All-WAC
Tyler Larsen C 6'4, 297 Jr. ** (4.9) 25 career starts, 2011 1st All-WAC
Funaki Asisi RG 27 career starts
Oscar Molina-Sanchez LT 6'5, 287 Sr. ** (4.9) 26 career starts
Robert Hill LT 22 career starts
Eric Schultz RT 6'4, 294 Jr. NR 19 career starts
Tanner Richins LT 6'6, 274 Sr. ** (4.9) 3 career starts
Jamie Markosion C 6'2, 285 Jr. NR 2 career starts
Chris Friesen LG 6'4, 272 Jr. ** (5.1)
Patrick Ward OL 6'5, 285 Jr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 50 86 106 77
RUSHING 31 94 105 71
PASSING 76 83 93 76
Standard Downs 69 102 47
Passing Downs 105 104 107
Redzone 74 104 53
Q1 Rk 80 1st Down Rk 87
Q2 Rk 92 2nd Down Rk 106
Q3 Rk 56 3rd Down Rk 53
Q4 Rk 79
Adj. Line Yards Rk 56
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 69

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Bojay Filimoeatu DE 6'2, 250 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 30.5 4.0% 11 3 1 1 1
Quinn Garner DE 13 24.0 3.1% 5 2 1 1
Connor Williams DE 6'3, 248 Jr. NR 13 21.0 2.8% 3 2
Al Lapuaho NG 6'3, 295 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 17.5 2.3% 2.5 1 1
Havea Lasike NG 6'1, 305 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 13.5 1.8% 1.5 1.5 1
Tevita Vaifoou NG 6'1, 270 So. NR 13 6.0 0.8% 0.5 1 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Bobby Wagner ILB 13 107.0 14.0% 11.5 4 2 1
Kyle Gallagher ILB 13 72.5 9.5% 4 1.5 1 5 1
Tavaris McMillian OLB 6'2, 227 So. ** (5.2) 13 36.5 4.8% 7.5
Maurice Alexander OLB 6'2, 209 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 36.0 4.7% 7 3 1
Levi Koskan OLB 12 20.0 2.6% 10 5.5 1 1
Jake Doughty ILB 6'0, 225 Jr. NR 13 19.0 2.5% 3
Jason Fanaika OLB 6'3, 240 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 10.0 1.3% 2 0.5

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nevin Lawson CB 5'10, 177 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 64.5 8.5% 1 10 1 1
McKade Brady SS 5'11, 183 Sr. 13 63.5 8.3% 1 6 1 1
Jumanne Robertson CB 5'10, 176 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 41.5 5.4% 12
Alfred Bowden FS 13 35.5 4.7% 1.5 3 1 1
Will Davis CB 5'11, 169 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 28.0 3.7% 3.5 6
Walter McClenton S 8 27.0 3.5% 1.5 1
Chris Harris S 13 20.0 2.6% 1 1
Quinton Byrd NB 5'11, 179 Sr. NR 13 10.5 1.4%
Terrence Alston NB 5'10, 175 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 9.0 1.2% 1
Devonta Glover-Wright DB 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tyler Bennett 5'11, 213 Sr. 58 43.8 6 3 21 41.4%
Stanley Morrison 1 36.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jacob Haueter 5'11, 210 So. 63 66.5 7 11.1%
Jaron Bentrude 6'0, 202 So. 9 64.2 2 22.2%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Josh Thompson 5'9, 165 Jr. 57-58 4-8 50.0% 2-2 100.0%
Jacob Haueter 5'11, 210 So. 0-0 0-0 #DIV/0! 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Kerwynn Williams KR 5'9, 184 Sr. 36 22.7 0
Chuck Jacobs KR 6'0, 174 Sr. 18 24.5 0
Kerwynn Williams PR 5'9, 184 Sr. 7 14.0 0
Eric Moats PR 5 3.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 119
Net Punting 29
Net Kickoffs 71
Touchback Pct 72
Field Goal Pct 110
Kick Returns Avg 39
Punt Returns Avg 67

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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