2012 UTSA Roadrunners Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom. (However, most terms at the bottom will not apply to teams that spent 2011 in FCS and, therefore, have no advanced data of which to speak.)

2011 Schedule & Results

All team rankings below are from last year's FCS data.

Record: 4-6
Date Opponent Score W-L
3-Sep Northeastern St. 31-3 W
10-Sep McMurry 21-24 L
17-Sep at Southern Utah 22-45 L
24-Sep Bacone 54-7 W
1-Oct at Sam Houston St. 7-22 L
8-Oct South Alabama 27-30 L
15-Oct at UC-Davis 17-38 L
29-Oct Georgia State 17-14 W
12-Nov at McNeese State 21-24 L
19-Nov Minot State 49-7 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.6 N/A 21.4 N/A

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at South Alabama 120
8-Sep Texas A&M-Commerce NR
15-Sep at Georgia State NR
22-Sep NW Oklahoma State NR
29-Sep at New Mexico State 121
13-Oct at Rice 112
20-Oct San Jose State 110
27-Oct Utah State 79
3-Nov at Louisiana Tech 52
10-Nov McNeese State NR
17-Nov at Idaho 118
24-Nov Texas State 122
TO Margin -1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 20 (11 / 9)
Yds/Pt Margin -2.1

Offense

Note: per-game yardage rankings below are unofficial. Because of their provisional FBS status, UTSA did not actually garner FCS rankings. Below is where they would have ranked.

Category Yards/
Game Rk
OVERALL 56
RUSHING 66
PASSING 50

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Yards/
Pass
Eric Soza 6'1, 200 Jr. NR 172 307 2,148 56.0% 14 9 7.0
John Simmons 6'2, 190 So. NR 5 6 49 83.3% 1 0 9.8

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
TD
Eric Soza QB 6'1, 200 Jr. NR 95 285 3.0 3
Evans Okotcha HB 5'9, 220 Jr. NR 50 326 6.5 4
Chris Johnson RB


49 176 3.6 1
David Glasco II TB 5'10, 195 So. NR 44 149 3.4 5
Brandon Armstrong TB 5'6, 160 So. ** (5.0) 25 171 6.8 0
Tevin Williams RB 6'0, 185 So. ** (5.4) 24 93 3.9 1
Kam Jones WR 6'0, 190 So. NR 22 127 5.8 1
CheRod Simpson RB 6'0, 195 Jr. NR 10 27 2.7 0
Marcus Wright RB 5'7, 177 Sr. *** (5.5)



Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Catches Yards Yards/
Catch
Kam Jones WR 6'0, 190 So. NR 39 578 14.8
Brandon Freeman WR 5'10, 155 So. NR 30 419 14.0
Kenny Harrison SLOT 5'9, 160 So. NR 28 209 7.5
David Morgan TE 6'5, 225 So. NR 13 214 16.5
Brandon Armstrong TB 5'6, 160 So. ** (5.0) 11 109 9.9
Evans Okotcha HB 5'9, 220 Jr. NR 10 148 14.8
Josiah Monroe SLOT 5'8, 170 So. ** (5.4) 8 86 10.8
Jake Wanamaker WR 6'1, 190 So. ** (5.2) 7 123 17.6
CheRod Simpson RB 6'0, 195 Jr. NR 7 79 11.3
Sean Hesler WR 6'0, 155 RSFr. NR


Kenny Bias WR 6'2, 165 RSFr. ** (5.3)


Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Drew Phillips LT 6'5, 265 So. NR 10 career starts
Nate Leonard C 6'1, 280 So. NR 10 career starts
Scott Inskeep RT 6'5, 295 So. NR 10 career starts
Cody Harris RT 6'5, 280 So. NR 8 career starts
Payton Rion LG 6'4, 265 So. NR 7 career starts
Mike Sanchez 2 career starts
Patrick Hoog RG 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 2 career starts
James Bakke LT 6'4, 270 So. NR 1 career start

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
OVERALL 31
RUSHING 24
PASSING 74

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Marlon Smith DE


9 30.5 6.0% 10 8 7 1
Richard Burge DT 6'4, 270 So. NR 10 21.0 4.1% 1.5 0.5 1
Ashaad Mabry DT 6'3, 290 So. NR 10 14.0 2.8% 3 1
Ferrington Macon DT 6'0, 290 So. ** (5.2) 10 11.5 2.3% 3.5 2.5
William Ritter DE 6'2, 225 Jr. NR 7 10.5 2.1% 2.5 1.5
Jason Neill DE 6'3, 250 So. NR 10 10.5 2.1% 4 1 1
Franky Anaya DT 6'4, 285 Sr. NR 10 10.5 2.1% 2 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brandon Reeves MIKE 5'10, 220 Sr. NR 10 48.0 9.4% 8.5 6 1 1
Steven Kurfehs MIKE 6'3, 225 Jr. NR 7 46.5 9.2% 4 1 2 1 1
Cody Rogers HAWK 6'1, 240 So. NR 9 26.5 5.2% 1 0.5
John Walker III LB 6'1, 220 So. NR 9 8.5 1.7% 1 1 1
Blake Terry HAWK 6'1, 230 So. *** (5.5) 9 5.5 1.1% 1.5 1
Charles Wort LB 6'0, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)
Brandon Guerrero LB 6'4, 245 Jr. ** (5.4)
Skylar Nelson LB 6'3, 215 Fr. ** (5.4)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mark Waters ROV 10 52.0 10.2% 4 0.5 1 3 1
Nic Johnston SS 6'2, 190 So. NR 10 44.5 8.8% 9 0.5 2 1 2 3
Triston Wade FS 6'0, 160 So. NR 10 31.0 6.1% 1 2 1 3 2
Mauricio Sanchez FS 6'0, 180 So. NR 9 30.5 6.0% 0.5 1
Darrien Starling CB 5'9, 180 So. NR 10 29.0 5.7% 2 4
Erik Brown CB 5'10, 185 Jr. ** (5.1) 8 22.0 4.3% 0.5 2
Alondre Thorn CB 5'9, 155 So. NR 9 5.0 1.0% 1 1
Lekenwic Haynes S 6'3, 225 Sr. ** (5.4) 6 5.0 1.0%
H.B. Rosser DB 5'10, 170 Fr. *** (5.5)
Cody Berry DB 6'1, 220 Jr. ** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Josh Ward 5'10, 215 So. 30 35.1 2 6 10 53.3%
Kristian Stern 6'0, 175 So. 16 40.9 1 7 5 75.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Sean Ianno 6'4, 190 So. 42 65.2 5 11.9%
Josh Ward 5'10, 215 So. 9 61.1 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Sean Ianno 6'4, 190 So. 31-31 7-10 70.0% 4-8 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Kenny Harrison KR 5'9, 160 So. 19 26.8 0
Kam Jones KR 6'0, 190 So. 7 24.4 0
Erik Brown PR 5'10, 185 Jr. 11 6.8 0
Brandon Armstrong PR 5'6, 160 So. 2 6.5 0

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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