2012 UL-Monroe Warhawks Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 94
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Florida State 0-34 L 22.3 - 29.6 L
10-Sep Grambling State 35-7 W 22.6 - 18.2 W
17-Sep at TCU 17-38 L 28.4 - 28.2 W
24-Sep at Iowa 17-45 L 26.2 - 32.9 L
8-Oct Arkansas State 19-24 L 22.6 - 25.6 L
15-Oct at Troy 38-10 W 28.8 - 14.1 W
22-Oct at North Texas 21-38 L 22.6 - 31.5 L
29-Oct Western Kentucky 28-31 L 26.0 - 29.8 L
5-Nov at UL-Lafayette 35-36 L 31.4 - 30.0 W
12-Nov Middle Tennessee 42-14 W 30.2 - 28.8 W
19-Nov Florida International 17-28 L 23.2 - 27.2 L
3-Dec at Florida Atlantic 26-0 W 26.8 - 17.5 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.6 78 25.4 59
Adj. Points Per Game 25.9 89 26.1 38

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
8-Sep at Arkansas 14
15-Sep at Auburn 27
22-Sep Baylor 28
29-Sep at Tulane 111
6-Oct at Middle Tennessee 113
13-Oct Florida Atlantic 114
20-Oct at Western Kentucky 88
27-Oct South Alabama 120
3-Nov UL-Lafayette 99
8-Nov at Arkansas State 87
17-Nov North Texas 106
24-Nov at Florida International 56
Five-Year F/+ Rk 102
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 115
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +3 / -3.0
TO Luck/Game 2.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 55 93 91 88
RUSHING 65 61 93 40
PASSING 58 99 80 107
Standard Downs 93 93 91
Passing Downs 79 70 78
Redzone 89 95 76
Q1 Rk 66 1st Down Rk 104
Q2 Rk 102 2nd Down Rk 76
Q3 Rk 72 3rd Down Rk 73
Q4 Rk 97
Adj. Line Yards Rk 49
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 73

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kolton Browning 6'1, 196 Jr. ** (5.2) 244 419 2,483 58.2% 13 8 31 6.9% 5.1
Cody Wells 5'11, 196 Sr. ** (5.2) 30 52 368 57.7% 3 2 3 5.5% 6.5

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jyruss Edwards RB 5'11, 198 Jr. ** (5.3) 143 667 4.7 1.8 11 +6.3
Kolton Browning QB 6'1, 196 Jr. ** (5.2) 112 645 5.8 2.4 5 +5.8
Mitchell Bailey RB 6'0, 226 Sr. NR 64 212 3.3 0.8 2 -6.1
Centarius Donald RB 6'1, 216 Jr. ** (5.2) 59 414 7.0 3.4 3 +6.5
Monterrell Washington RB 5'10, 200 Jr. ** (5.2) 17 36 2.1 0.5 0 -3.6
Cody Wells QB 5'11, 196 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 36 3.3 0.7 0 -0.9

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Brent Leonard WR 6'2, 182 Sr. NR 111 69 751 62.2% 24.8% 54.1% 5.8
Tavarese Maye WR 5'11, 171 Jr. ** (5.0) 84 50 617 59.5% 18.8% 57.1% 6.0
Jyruss Edwards RB 5'11, 198 Jr. ** (5.3) 42 31 203 73.8% 9.4% 76.2% 4.6
Anthony McCall WR 51 22 249 43.1% 11.4% 51.0% 1.9
Luther Ambrose WR 41 21 133 51.2% 9.2% 58.5% 1.9
Colby Harper WR 5'11, 180 So. ** (5.3) 40 27 291 67.5% 8.9% 50.0% 6.8
Je'Ron Hamm WR 6'3, 214 Jr. ** (5.3) 28 17 257 60.7% 6.3% 57.1% 8.0
Zarrell Sanders WR


14 9 115 64.3% 3.1% 85.7% 5.9
Kevin Steed TE 6'3, 223 Jr. ** (5.1) 7 5 39 71.4% 1.6% 85.7% 4.3
Mitchell Bailey RB 6'0, 226 Sr. NR 12 7 79 58.3% 2.7% 50.0% 6.2
Rashon Caesar WR 5'11, 174 RSFr. NR






Courtney Davis WR 5'9, 176 RSFr. NR






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jonathan Gill LG 6'3, 299 Sr. ** (5.0) 34 career starts
Justin Roberts RG 32 career starts
Ryan McCaul C 24 career starts
Anthony Montgomery RT 23 career starts
Josh Allen C 6'3, 280 Jr. *** (5.7) 16 career starts
Joseph Treadwell RT 6'4, 290 So. ** (5.2) 12 career starts
Ben Risenhoover RG 6'1, 284 So. ** (5.3) 5 career starts
Jon Fisher C 6'3, 288 Jr. ** (5.3) 1 career start
Demiere Burkett LT 6'1, 275 So. ** (5.2)
Jeremy Burton RT 6'1, 299 So. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 22 70 49 89
RUSHING 8 50 34 70
PASSING 63 85 69 89
Standard Downs 53 28 84
Passing Downs 78 91 74
Redzone 55 52 59
Q1 Rk 56 1st Down Rk 55
Q2 Rk 87 2nd Down Rk 59
Q3 Rk 93 3rd Down Rk 82
Q4 Rk 16
Adj. Line Yards Rk 22
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 55

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ken Dorsey DE 12 41.0 6.5% 13.5 4.5 1 1
Troy Evans DE 12 35.0 5.5% 12 6.5 1 1
Kentarius Caldwell DE 6'2, 255 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 20.5 3.2% 5.5 3.5 4
Jordan Landry DE 12 7.0 1.1% 2 2 2 1
John Nard NT 6'0, 270 So. ** (5.3) 6 3.5 0.6% 1 1
Emanuel Jefferies NT 6'2, 274 Jr. ** (5.1) 11 3.0 0.5% 2 0.5
Joey Gautney DE 6'1, 248 So. ** (5.3) 12 5.5 0.9% 1
Gerrand Johnson NT 6'0, 267 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jason Edwards LB 12 76.5 12.0% 3.5 1.5 1
Cameron Blakes LB 6'1, 231 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 39.5 6.2% 7 2 1 1
R.J. Young LB 5'11, 232 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 33.0 5.2% 6.5 2 2 1
DaCorris Ford LB 6'1, 219 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 10.0 1.6% 2.5 1
C.C. Carpenter LB 12 7.0 1.1% 1
Austin Moss LB 6'2, 226 Jr. **** (5.8)






Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Darius Prelow S 12 61.5 9.7% 2.5 1 4 4
Vincent Eddie CB 5'8, 155 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 54.0 8.5% 3.5 2 1
Isaiah Newsome S 5'11, 194 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 51.0 8.0% 1 1 3 1 2
Nate Brown CB 11 50.0 7.9% 1 4
Tim Taylor CB 12 43.5 6.8% 2 5
Otis Peterson (2010^) CB 5'11, 163 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 39.0 5.9%
1 4 1
Khairi Usher S 5'9, 194 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 27.0 4.2% 2 2
Henry Mitchell S 5'11, 191 Sr. NR 12 15.0 2.4% 1.5 1
Brandon Hardy S 5'10, 201 Sr. NR 11 9.5 1.5% 1
Rob'Donovan Lewis CB 5'10, 173 So. NR 9 8.0 1.3%
Cordero Smith CB 5'11, 189 So. ** (5.2) 10 6.0 0.9% 0.5

^ Peterson was a contributor in 2010 as a redshirt freshman but did not play last season.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Aaron Munoz

56 36.7 2 12 13 44.6%
Conner Fryoux 5'8, 179 So. 11 37.8 0 1 1 18.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Justin Manton 6'2, 172 So. 53 54.8 0 0.0%
Radi Jabour

2 44.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Justin Manton 6'2, 172 So. 34-36 5-9 55.6% 1-5 20.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Luther Ambrose KR 26 31.2 2
Jyruss Edwards KR 5'11, 198 Jr. 18 19.3 0
Tyler Cain PR 5'8, 165 So. 10 1.9 0
Luther Ambrose PR 7 6.3 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 117
Net Punting 119
Net Kickoffs 109
Touchback Pct 118
Field Goal Pct 117
Kick Returns Avg 11
Punt Returns Avg 110

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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