2012 UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 78
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Oklahoma State 34-61 L 21.8 - 29.7 L
10-Sep at Kent State 20-12 W 17.3 - 16.0 W
17-Sep Nicholls State 38-21 W 20.9 - 28.6 L
24-Sep at Florida International 36-31 W 33.5 - 29.2 W
1-Oct Florida Atlantic 37-34 W 28.3 - 32.8 L
8-Oct Troy 31-17 W 27.1 - 29.5 L
15-Oct North Texas 30-10 W 27.1 - 23.4 W
22-Oct at Western Kentucky 23-42 L 31.2 - 34.4 L
29-Oct at Middle Tennessee 45-20 W 29.5 - 28.8 W
5-Nov UL-Monroe 36-35 W 31.5 - 31.9 L
12-Nov at Arkansas State 21-30 L 25.2 - 28.2 L
26-Nov at Arizona 37-45 L 27.9 - 28.8 L
17-Dec vs San Diego State 32-30 W 32.0 - 27.6 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 32.3 32 29.8 84
Adj. Points Per Game 27.2 64 28.4 74

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Lamar NR
8-Sep at Troy 100
15-Sep at Oklahoma State 4
29-Sep Florida International 56
6-Oct Tulane 111
16-Oct at North Texas 106
23-Oct Arkansas State 87
3-Nov at UL-Monroe 90
10-Nov at Florida 13
17-Nov Western Kentucky 88
24-Nov South Alabama 120
1-Dec at Florida Atlantic 114
Five-Year F/+ Rk 99
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 85
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 0 / -1.7
TO Luck/Game 0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (8, 2)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 51 72 80 64
RUSHING 88 109 106 108
PASSING 29 38 41 37
Standard Downs 67 80 60
Passing Downs 87 94 70
Redzone 23 22 24
Q1 Rk 106 1st Down Rk 49
Q2 Rk 63 2nd Down Rk 100
Q3 Rk 90 3rd Down Rk 80
Q4 Rk 25
Adj. Line Yards Rk 114
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 45

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Blaine Gautier 6'0, 212 Sr. ** (5.1) 216 344 2,958 62.8% 23 6 19 5.2% 7.8
Chris Masson


45 83 437 54.2% 2 4 6 6.7% 4.4
Terrance Broadway (2010^) 6'2, 205 So. **** (5.8) 30 42 424 71.4% 3 1 6 12.5% 8.0
Brooks Haack 6'2, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)






^ Broadway transferred from Houston and will be eligible this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Alonzo Harris RB 6'1, 205 So. *** (5.6) 163 700 4.3 1.4 8 -11.6
Blaine Gautier QB 6'0, 212 Sr. ** (5.1) 99 606 6.1 2.8 3 +1.7
Qyendarius Griffin RB 5'11, 225 So. *** (5.5) 69 210 3.0 0.7 3 -8.1
Aaron Spikes RB 5'10, 195 So. *** (5.6) 31 118 3.8 2.7 1 -4.6
Robert Walker RB 5'8, 183 Jr. *** (5.5) 15 61 4.1 1.2 0 -1.7
Brad McGuire FB 12 56 4.7 2.4 1 +0.5
Chris Masson QB 11 20 1.8 0.3 1 -1.2

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Javone Lawson WR-X 6'1, 183 Sr. ** (5.4) 101 63 1,092 62.4% 24.7% 62.4% 9.8
Harry Peoples WR-H 5'10, 180 Sr. ** (5.2) 80 58 697 72.5% 19.6% 62.5% 9.1
Ladarius Green TE 80 51 606 63.8% 19.6% 57.5% 6.9
Darryl Surgent WR-Z 6'0, 195 Jr. ** (5.3) 52 28 518 53.8% 12.7% 55.8% 7.8
Robert Walker RB 5'8, 183 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 9 64 75.0% 2.9% 83.3% 5.5
Alonzo Harris RB 6'1, 205 So. *** (5.6) 19 14 146 73.7% 4.6% 47.4% 7.6
Ian Thompson TE 6'4, 234 Jr. ** (5.2) 15 10 99 66.7% 3.7% 53.3% 7.2
Andrew Joseph WR-H 14 7 45 50.0% 3.4% 50.0% 1.8
Jamal Robinson WR-Z 6'3, 205 So. *** (5.5) 12 7 77 58.3% 2.9% 41.7% 5.9

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Leonardo Bates LT 6'5, 296 Sr. NR 23 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Sun Belt
Jaron Odom RT 6'7, 330 Sr. ** (4.9) 23 career starts
Kyle Plouhar LG 20 career starts
Andre Huval C 6'1, 305 Jr. ** (5.2) 14 career starts
Daniel Quave RG 6'3, 324 So. ** (5.2) 13 career starts
Benay Pryer LT 6'6, 296 Sr. ** (5.2)
Jarad Martin LG 6'5, 288 So. ** (5.2)
Daniel Lemelle C 6'2, 282 Jr. ** (5.1)
Marvin Martin RG 6'3, 294 So. ** (5.2)
Octravian Anderson RT 6'4, 280 So. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 75 88 64 105
RUSHING 46 79 44 98
PASSING 100 96 96 96
Standard Downs 101 64 103
Passing Downs 90 77 96
Redzone 115 114 116
Q1 Rk 87 1st Down Rk 97
Q2 Rk 57 2nd Down Rk 95
Q3 Rk 87 3rd Down Rk 85
Q4 Rk 116
Adj. Line Yards Rk 53
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 42

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Bernard Smith DE 13 38.5 5.0% 13 6.5 1 1
Derreck Dean NT 13 29.5 3.8% 6.5 1.5
Tyrell Gaddies DT 13 24.0 3.1% 7.5 2 1
Chris Tucker DE 13 20.5 2.6% 4.5 3.5 2 2
Christian Ringo DT 6'1, 260 So. ** (5.3) 8 13.5 1.7% 2.5 1.5
Cordian Hagans DT 6'5, 310 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 12.5 1.6% 2
Justin Anderson BAN 6'3, 240 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 12.0 1.5% 1
Justin Hamilton NT 6'3, 310 So. *** (5.5) 13 7.0 0.9% 2 2
Emeka Onyenekwu DE 6'4, 242 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 5.5 0.7% 2.5 1 1 1
Jalen Fields DE 6'4, 280 Jr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Lance Kelley MLB 13 91.0 11.7% 8.5 3 3 8 1 2
Devon Lewis-Buchanan ROV 12 65.0 8.4% 10.5 1.5 1 6 1
Jake Molbert MLB 6'1, 220 So. ** (5.3) 12 47.5 6.1% 5 1
Le'Marcus Gibson LB 11 35.0 4.5% 1.5 2
Brandon Johnson MLB 6'1, 225 So. NR 12 16.0 2.1% 2 2
Jelani Smith LB 6'0, 220 Sr. *** (5.5) 5 7.0 0.9%
Andrew Hebert MLB 6'2, 212 Jr. ** (4.9) 7 6.0 0.8% 1.5 1
Delvin Jones (2010^) LB 6'4, 240 Jr. **** (5.8) 2 1.0 0.1% 1.0
Ryan Mosby LB 6'1, 225 Jr. *** (5.5)

Tyren Alexander LB 6'0, 180 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Jones originally signed with Ole Miss and played briefly in 2010 before getting dismissed. He played junior college ball last year.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jemarlous Moten S 5'11, 175 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 64.5 8.3% 1 3 7 1
Dwight Bentley CB 13 62.0 8.0% 5 3 6 2
Lionel Stokes S 13 61.5 7.9% 1.5 2 5 1
Melvin White CB 13 57.0 7.3% 8.5 1.5 2 7 1 1
Sean Thomas CB 5'11, 185 So. ** (5.2) 9 11.0 1.4% 1
Cooper Gerami S 6'0, 196 Jr. ** (5.2) 9 10.0 1.3% 1
Rodney Gillis CB 5'11, 186 Sr. ** (5.3) 11 7.5 1.0%
C.J. Bates DB 6'1, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)

Tig Barksdale S 6'1, 205 Jr. **** (5.9)







T.J. Worthy S 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.6)







Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brett Baer 5'11, 182 Sr. 79 40.3 5 19 27 58.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Hunter Stover 6'1, 205 So. 47 60.3 1 2.1%
Brett Baer 5'11, 182 Sr. 16 48.9 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Brett Baer 5'11, 182 Sr. 46-50 12-13 92.3% 6-7 85.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Darryl Surgent KR 6'0, 195 Jr. 37 20.9 0
Javone Lawson KR 6'1, 183 Sr. 13 20.3 0
Darryl Surgent PR 6'0, 195 Jr. 27 12.0 1
Harry Peoples PR 5'10, 180 Sr. 5 1.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 65
Net Punting 36
Net Kickoffs 115
Touchback Pct 110
Field Goal Pct 1
Kick Returns Avg 105
Punt Returns Avg 35

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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