2012 Troy Trojans Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 107
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Clemson 19-43 L 24.3 - 29.5 L
17-Sep at Arkansas 28-38 L 29.1 - 27.9 W
24-Sep Middle Tennessee 38-35 W 27.3 - 31.4 L
1-Oct UAB 24-23 W 23.2 - 24.7 L
8-Oct at UL-Lafayette 17-31 L 27.2 - 29.7 L
15-Oct UL-Monroe 10-38 L 17.3 - 31.7 L
25-Oct at Florida International 20-23 L 24.3 - 28.1 L
5-Nov at Navy 14-42 L 23.0 - 31.5 L
12-Nov North Texas 33-38 L 28.1 - 32.9 L
19-Nov Florida Atlantic 34-7 W 26.3 - 30.0 L
26-Nov at Western Kentucky 18-41 L 30.3 - 32.6 L
3-Dec at Arkansas State 14-45 L 24.8 - 30.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.4 94 33.7 101
Adj. Points Per Game 25.4 95 30.0 101

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at UAB 115
8-Sep UL-Lafayette 99
15-Sep Mississippi State 48
22-Sep at North Texas 106
29-Sep at South Alabama 120
11-Oct Western Kentucky 88
20-Oct Florida International 56
27-Oct at Florida Atlantic 114
3-Nov at Tennessee 23
10-Nov Navy 76
17-Nov Arkansas State 87
24-Nov at Middle Tennessee 113
Five-Year F/+ Rk 68
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 106
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -12 / -9.6
TO Luck/Game -1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (9, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 65 107 106 106
RUSHING 117 110 102 117
PASSING 17 94 85 98
Standard Downs 107 104 100
Passing Downs 102 103 97
Redzone 115 115 115
Q1 Rk 113 1st Down Rk 96
Q2 Rk 89 2nd Down Rk 104
Q3 Rk 79 3rd Down Rk 103
Q4 Rk 112
Adj. Line Yards Rk 95
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 36

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Corey Robinson 6'1, 216 Jr. ** (5.2) 316 508 3,411 62.2% 21 15 20 3.8% 6.1
Jamie Hampton


13 19 71 68.4% 0 0 0 0.0% 3.7

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Shawn Southward RB 5'8, 189 Sr. *** (5.6) 123 556 4.5 1.3 4 -10.1
D.J. Taylor RB-H 6'0, 229 Sr. NR 82 367 4.5 1.4 6 +4.1
Chris Anderson RB 5'8, 184 Sr. ** (5.4) 59 217 3.7 0.8 1 -10.0
Corey Robinson QB 6'1, 216 Jr. ** (5.2) 26 103 4.0 1.7 1 -2.3
Andre Allen RB 5'9, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Eric Thomas WR-X 6'1, 216 Jr. *** (5.5) 98 67 890 68.4% 19.4% 56.1% 9.0
Justin Albert WR-H 5'8, 171 Jr. *** (5.5) 61 40 338 65.6% 12.1% 60.7% 5.0
Corey Johnson WR-Y 6'0, 186 Sr. *** (5.7) 58 43 440 74.1% 11.5% 63.8% 8.0
Chip Reeves (2010^) WR 5'10, 176 Sr. *** (5.5) 44 30 515 68.2% 8.8% NR 11.7
Shawn Southward RB 5'8, 189 Sr. *** (5.6) 44 27 249 61.4% 8.7% 50.0% 4.8
Jamel Johnson (2010^) WR 6'2, 217 Jr. *** (5.5) 39 22 254 56.4% 7.8% NR 6.5
Chandler Worthy WR-X 5'9, 165 So. ** (5.2) 37 22 392 59.5% 7.3% 67.6% 9.0
B.J. Chitty WR-Z 6'2, 199 So. *** (5.6) 34 16 125 47.1% 6.7% 52.9% 1.8
Chris Anderson RB 5'8, 184 Sr. ** (5.4) 25 19 148 76.0% 5.0% 52.0% 6.4
Brett Moncrief WR-Z 25 17 92 68.0% 5.0% 72.0% 3.9
Jaquon Robinson WR-Y 5'11, 181 Sr. NR 23 18 211 78.3% 4.6% 65.2% 10.2
Stanley Arukwe WR-X 22 12 231 54.5% 4.4% 63.6% 8.8
Brandon Brooks WR 6'0, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)
Bobby Walker WR 6'1, 170 Fr. *** (5.5)

Reeves and Johnson were academically ineligible in 2011, but both are still listed on Troy's roster, suggesting both should be eligible this fall.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
James Brown LT 38 career starts, 2011 1st All-Sun Belt
Kyle Wilborn LG 6'4, 311 Sr. ** (4.9) 33 career starts
Zach Swindall C 12 career starts
Jacob Creech RG


9 career starts
Terrence Jones RT 6'3, 307 So. ** (5.3) 8 career starts
Zach Johnson RG 6'2, 292 So. *** (5.5) 6 career starts
Jarred Fleming RT 6'5, 274 Sr. NR 4 career starts
Jimmie Arnold LG 6'1, 283 Jr. ** (4.9) 1 career start
Dalton Bennett LT 6'3, 298 So. ** (5.4)
Andrew Phillips C 6'3, 332 Sr. ** (5.2)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 113 103 85 107
RUSHING 105 83 74 89
PASSING 101 105 101 113
Standard Downs 102 88 104
Passing Downs 77 63 84
Redzone 93 98 89
Q1 Rk 63 1st Down Rk 99
Q2 Rk 110 2nd Down Rk 89
Q3 Rk 98 3rd Down Rk 87
Q4 Rk 82
Adj. Line Yards Rk 84
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 82

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
John Robles DE 12 41.5 5.6% 7.5 3 1 2
Jonathan Massaquoi DE


12 40.5 5.5% 10.5 6 2 1 1
Tony Davis DT 6'0, 255 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 26.5 3.6% 6 2.5 2 1
Emanuel Dudley DT 8 14.0 1.9% 1.5 1
Kyle Lucas DT 12 9.5 1.3% 2 1
Brandon Boudreaux DE 9 8.0 1.1%
John Clark DT 6'3, 281 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 7.5 1.0% 1
Tony Gillespie DT


9 5.0 0.7% 1.5 1.5

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Xavier Lamb MLB 12 65.0 8.8% 2 1 2
Brannon Bryan WLB 6'0, 231 Sr. NR 12 55.5 7.5% 1.5 1 1 1
Kanorris Davis SLB 5'10, 208 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 50.0 6.7% 4 1 1 2
Angelo Hadley SLB 5'11, 197 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 20.0 2.7% 2 3
Jacoby Thomas WLB 6'0, 246 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 16.0 2.2% 5.5 1.5

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brynden Trawick SS 6'2, 223 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 99.0 13.4% 2.5 1 2 1 1
LaDarrius Madden SS 12 73.0 9.9% 5 2 3 2
Chris Pickett CB 5'11, 187 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 33.0 4.5% 1 2 1
Jimmie Anderson CB 10 32.0 4.3% 1 2 4 1
Bryan Willis CB 5'10, 182 Sr. ** (4.9) 9 29.5 4.0% 0.5 2
Camren Hudson FS 5'10, 185 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 28.0 3.8% 1 1
Dimitri Miles DB 6'1, 200 So. NR 10 17.0 2.3% 0.5 1 1
Ethan Davis CB 6'1, 175 So. ** (5.2) 10 14.0 1.9% 1 1
Barry Valcin FS 10 14.0 1.9% 2
Juan Neloms DB 6'1, 180 Fr. *** (5.6)
Shaq Beverly DB 5'10, 190 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Will Goggans 68 40.8 6 8 19 39.7%
Michael Taylor 1 28.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Michael Taylor 55 64.8 11 20.0%
Spencer Martin 5'8, 153 Sr. 2 61.0 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Michael Taylor 29-33 7-10 70.0% 1-4 25.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Chandler Worthy KR 5'9, 165 So. 24 23.5 0
Corey Johnson KR 6'0, 186 Sr. 15 20.8 0
Chris Anderson KR 5'8, 184 Sr. 7 21.7 0
Justin Albert PR 5'8, 171 Jr. 28 8.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 94
Net Punting 57
Net Kickoffs 31
Touchback Pct 34
Field Goal Pct 106
Kick Returns Avg 101
Punt Returns Avg 72

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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