2012 Texas A&M Aggies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 16
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
4-Sep SMU 46-14 W 45.3 - 23.3 W
17-Sep Idaho 37-7 W 29.8 - 23.0 W
24-Sep Oklahoma State 29-30 L 29.3 - 25.0 W
1-Oct vs Arkansas 38-42 L 35.5 - 28.8 W
8-Oct at Texas Tech 45-40 W 27.7 - 27.6 W
15-Oct Baylor 55-28 W 33.3 - 26.0 W
22-Oct at Iowa State 33-17 W 28.9 - 24.6 W
29-Oct Missouri 31-38 L 29.8 - 29.5 W
5-Nov at Oklahoma 25-41 L 28.5 - 25.5 W
12-Nov at Kansas State 50-53 L 29.0 - 29.5 L
19-Nov Kansas 61-7 W 32.1 - 20.7 W
24-Nov Texas 25-27 L 24.4 - 17.4 W
31-Dec vs Northwestern 33-22 W 27.6 - 23.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 39.1 11 28.2 70
Adj. Points Per Game 30.9 17 25.0 23

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug vs Louisiana Tech 61
8-Sep Florida 10
15-Sep at SMU 75
22-Sep S.C. State NR
29-Sep Arkansas 15
6-Oct at Ole Miss 59
20-Oct LSU 2
27-Oct at Auburn 22
3-Nov at Mississippi State 44
10-Nov at Alabama 1
17-Nov Sam Houston State NR
24-Nov Missouri 28
Five-Year F/+ Rk 51
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 22
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / +2.1
TO Luck/Game -4.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (7, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 7 24 23 24
RUSHING 23 15 10 24
PASSING 18 40 49 31
Standard Downs 30 21 43
Passing Downs 7 3 10
Redzone 5 8 5
Q1 Rk 25 1st Down Rk 46
Q2 Rk 4 2nd Down Rk 6
Q3 Rk 58 3rd Down Rk 14
Q4 Rk 44
Adj. Line Yards Rk 10
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 7

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ryan Tannehill 327 531 3,744 61.6% 29 15 9 1.7% 6.9
Jameill Showers 6'2, 219 So. *** (5.7) 4 5 40 80.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 8.0
Johnny Manziel 6'1, 200 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Matt Davis 6'2, 206 Fr. **** (5.8)

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Cyrus Gray RB 198 1,045 5.3 2.0 12 +11.2
Christine Michael RB 5'11, 220 Sr. ***** (6.1) 149 899 6.0 2.2 8 +8.0
Ben Malena RB 5'8, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 67 259 3.9 1.3 4 -0.3
Ryan Tannehill QB 49 347 7.1 3.5 4 +9.2
Brandon Williams^ RB 6'0, 192 So. ***** (6.1) 46 219 4.8 1.6 0 -8.0
Will Randolph RB


10 37 3.7 1.1 0 -3.9
Trey Williams RB 5'8, 185 Fr. ***** (6.1)

^ Williams is an Oklahoma transfer who probably won't be eligible in 2012, but the NCAA has yet to officially rule.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Ryan Swope WR 6'0, 206 Sr. *** (5.7) 128 89 1,207 69.5% 25.1% 54.7% 9.4
Jeff Fuller WR 123 70 828 56.9% 24.1% 68.3% 5.2
Uzoma Nwachukwu WR 6'0, 194 Sr. **** (5.8) 86 50 639 58.1% 16.9% 46.5% 5.6
Cyrus Gray RB 38 31 239 81.6% 7.5% 52.6% 7.2
Hutson Prioleau TE


20 14 135 70.0% 3.9% 65.0% 6.9
Nehemiah Hicks TE 6'4, 243 Jr. *** (5.6) 17 12 106 70.6% 3.3% 70.6% 5.7
Nate Askew WR 6'4, 220 Jr. *** (5.7) 16 6 85 37.5% 3.1% 37.5% 0.9
Michael Lamothe TE 6'3, 235 Sr. *** (5.5) 15 14 109 93.3% 2.9% 66.7% 8.6
Brandal Jackson WR 6'1, 191 Sr. *** (5.7) 15 8 108 53.3% 2.9% 46.7% 5.2
Kenric McNeal WR 6'1, 184 Sr. *** (5.6) 15 8 101 53.3% 2.9% 53.3% 4.6
Malcome Kennedy WR 6'0, 200 So. *** (5.6) 14 11 140 78.6% 2.7% 64.3% 11.4
Mike Evans WR 6'5, 218 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Derel Walker WR 6'2, 185 Jr. *** (5.7)






Thomas Johnson WR 5'11, 185 Fr. **** (5.9)






Edward Pope WR 6'4, 170 Fr. **** (5.8)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Luke Joeckel LT 6'6, 310 Jr. *** (5.7) 26 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big 12
Patrick Lewis C 6'2, 312 Sr. **** (5.8) 35 career starts, 2011 HM All-Big 12
Jake Matthews RT 6'5, 305 Jr. **** (6.0) 20 career starts, 2011 HM All-Big 12
Evan Eike RG 26 career starts
Cedric Ogbuehi RG 6'5, 295 So. **** (5.9) 6 career starts
Jarvis Harrison LG 6'4, 320 So. ** (5.2) 5 career starts
Danny Baker C 4 career starts
Shep Klinke LG 6'7, 305 Jr. **** (5.8) 3 career starts
Jeffrey Hyde RT


Allen Woodum RG 6'3, 292 Sr. NR
Ben Compton C 6'4, 307 So. *** (5.5)
Joseph Cheek RT 6'7, 300 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Nathan Gutekunst LT 6'6, 308 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Mike Matthews OL 6'3, 260 Fr. **** (5.8)
Germain Ifedi OL 6'5, 338 Fr. *** (5.7)
Kimo Tipoti OL 6'3, 320 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 59 15 12 19
RUSHING 12 15 13 15
PASSING 109 21 17 25
Standard Downs 20 21 25
Passing Downs 7 4 17
Redzone 42 36 48
Q1 Rk 7 1st Down Rk 20
Q2 Rk 12 2nd Down Rk 13
Q3 Rk 31 3rd Down Rk 18
Q4 Rk 40
Adj. Line Yards Rk 12
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 6

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Damontre Moore DE 6'4, 250 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 56.5 7.0% 17.5 8.5 1 4 1
Tony Jerod-Eddie DE 13 42.0 5.2% 7 5 1 1
Spencer Nealy DE 6'5, 277 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 32.0 4.0% 8 1.5 1 1
Caleb Russell DE 6'2, 248 Jr. NR 13 22.0 2.7% 4 3
Eddie Brown Jr. DT


13 20.5 2.5% 4 3 2
Ben Bass DE 13 18.0 2.2% 4.5 2 1
Gavin Stansbury DE 6'4, 270 So. *** (5.5) 13 11.0 1.4% 3.5 1 2
Kirby Ennis DT 6'4, 300 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 8.5 1.1% 2 1.5
Brandon Alexander DE 6'6, 245 So. *** (5.7) 4 8.0 1.0% 1.5
Jonathan Mathis DT 6'2, 300 Sr. **** (5.8) 3 1.0 0.1% 0.5
Ivan Robinson DT 6'3, 270 So. **** (5.8)
Shayvion Hatten DT 6'4, 295 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Polo Manukainiu DE 6'5, 255 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jonathan Stewart MLB 6'4, 244 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 76.5 9.5% 5.5 3 1 2 1
Sean Porter OLB 6'2, 230 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 64.5 8.0% 17 9.5 2 1 1
Steven Jenkins OLB 6'2, 220 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 45.5 5.6% 3 1 3
Garrick Williams LB 9 31.5 3.9% 0.5
Charlie Thomas ILB


12 22.5 2.8% 1 1
Donnie Baggs OLB 6'1, 230 So. *** (5.7) 10 5.0 0.6%
Shaun Ward MLB 6'2, 244 So. *** (5.7) 9 0.5 0.1%
Jordan Richmond LB 6'1, 220 Fr. **** (5.8)




Michael Richardson OLB 6'2, 230 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Trent Hunter FS 13 62.5 7.7% 3.5 2 2 8 1
Terrence Frederick CB 13 48.5 6.0% 9 4 1 13 2
Lionel Smith CB 13 43.5 5.4% 2.5 1 8 2
Dustin Harris CB 6'0, 175 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 29.5 3.7% 2 2 1 8
Howard Matthews SS 6'2, 206 So. **** (5.8) 13 23.5 2.9% 3 2 1 1
Coryell Judie CB 7 20.5 2.5% 1 1 5 1
Steven Terrell FS 5'10, 193 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 18.5 2.3% 2.5 2
Toney Hurd, Jr. FS 5'9, 180 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 17.0 2.1% 1
Steven Campbell DB 6'0, 201 Sr. *** (5.5) 6 12.5 1.5% 1
Deshazor Everett CB 6'0, 181 So. *** (5.6) 12 7.5 0.9%
Floyd Raven, Sr. CB 6'2, 190 So. **** (5.8) 12 4.0 0.5%
Johntel Franklin SS 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.5)
Tremaine Jacobs CB 6'1, 190 Jr. *** (5.7)
DeVante Harris DB 5'10, 175 Fr. **** (5.9)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ryan Epperson 6'2, 195 Sr. 52 41.2 6 20 19 75.0%
Drew Kaser 6'3, 220 So. 2 45.5 1 0 0 0.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Randy Bullock 96 65.8 32 33.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Randy Bullock 55-57 16-17 94.1% 13-16 81.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Dustin Harris KR 6'0, 175 Sr. 16 23.4 0
Coryell Judie KR 8 25.1 0
Dustin Harris PR 6'0, 175 Sr. 18 18.6 1
Kenric McNeal PR 6'1, 184 Sr. 13 7.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 48
Net Punting 94
Net Kickoffs 11
Touchback Pct 10
Field Goal Pct 6
Kick Returns Avg 62
Punt Returns Avg 10

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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