2012 Tennessee Volunteers Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom.

2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 57
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Montana 42-16 W 26.9 - 31.0 L
10-Sep Cincinnati 45-23 W 43.0 - 29.2 W
17-Sep at Florida 23-33 L 26.2 - 29.7 L
1-Oct Buffalo 41-10 W 32.5 - 25.2 W
8-Oct Georgia 12-20 L 30.6 - 27.4 W
15-Oct LSU 7-38 L 28.6 - 30.2 L
22-Oct at Alabama 6-37 L 18.8 - 28.9 L
29-Oct South Carolina 3-14 L 17.5 - 24.9 L
5-Nov Middle Tennessee 24-0 W 27.8 - 21.1 W
12-Nov at Arkansas 7-49 L 21.3 - 32.6 L
19-Nov Vanderbilt 27-21 W 31.2 - 24.9 W
26-Nov at Kentucky 7-10 L 20.8 - 29.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 20.3 106 22.6 36
Adj. Points Per Game 27.1 66 27.8 59

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
31-Aug vs N.C. State 53
8-Sep Georgia State NR
15-Sep Florida 10
22-Sep Akron 119
29-Sep at Georgia 8
13-Oct at Mississippi State 44
20-Oct Alabama 1
27-Oct at South Carolina 17
3-Nov Troy 93
10-Nov Missouri 28
17-Nov at Vanderbilt 50
24-Nov Kentucky 64
Five-Year F/+ Rk 40
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 13
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 0 / -7.7
TO Luck/Game +3.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 17 (10, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 104 18 24 18
RUSHING 116 59 47 72
PASSING 50 10 14 9
Standard Downs 46 40 46
Passing Downs 13 15 11
Redzone 34 26 37
Q1 Rk 27 1st Down Rk 34
Q2 Rk 12 2nd Down Rk 60
Q3 Rk 63 3rd Down Rk 6
Q4 Rk 71
Adj. Line Yards Rk 111
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 23

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tyler Bray 6'6, 215 Jr. **** (5.9) 147 247 1,983 59.5% 17 6 11 4.3% 7.3
Justin Worley 6'4, 213 So. *** (5.6) 48 87 604 55.2% 1 3 3 3.3% 6.5
Matt Simms 27 62 319 43.5% 0 3 3 4.6% 4.5
Nathan Peterman 6'2, 226 Fr. **** (5.8)

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Tauren Poole RB 187 693 3.7 1.0 5 -2.8
Marlin Lane, Jr. RB 5'11, 205 So. **** (5.8) 75 280 3.7 1.4 2 -9.2
Jaron Toney RB 5'10, 188 So. NR 31 74 2.4 0.2 0 -7.4
Rajion Neal RB 5'11, 211 Jr. **** (5.8) 27 134 5.0 1.7 2 +3.2
Tyler Bray QB 6'6, 215 Jr. **** (5.9) 15 30 2.0 0.5 1 -2.3
Tom Smith RB 5'11, 213 So. *** (5.7) 13 34 2.6 0.3 0 -2.5
Devrin Young RB 5'8, 172 So. *** (5.5) 6 9 1.5 0.6 0 -0.9
Davante Bourque RB 6'1, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Da'Rick Rogers WR


115 67 1,040 58.3% 31.4% 48.7% 7.4
Mychal Rivera TE 6'3, 244 Sr. *** (5.5) 53 29 344 54.7% 14.5% 49.1% 4.7
Zach Rogers WR 6'0, 172 Sr. *** (5.7) 40 14 189 35.0% 10.9% 62.5% 0.0
DeAnthony Arnett WR


36 24 242 66.7% 9.8% 66.7% 6.5
Rajion Neal RB 5'11, 211 Jr. **** (5.8) 24 13 269 54.2% 6.6% 75.0% 7.8
Justin Hunter WR 6'4, 200 Jr. **** (5.9) 20 17 314 85.0% 5.5% 70.0% 21.6
Marlin Lane, Jr. RB 5'11, 205 So. **** (5.8) 23 17 161 73.9% 6.3% 30.4% 6.8
Ben Bartholomew FB 6'2, 252 Sr. *** (5.5) 7 6 54 85.7% 1.9% 71.4% 9.5
Vincent Dallas WR 5'11, 187 So. *** (5.7) 7 3 37 42.9% 1.9% 57.1% 5.7
Devrin Young RB 5'8, 172 So. *** (5.5) 4 3 25 75.0% 1.1% 75.0% 6.3
Cordarelle Patterson WR 6'3, 205 Jr. **** (6.0)
Jason Croom WR 6'5, 232 Fr. **** (5.8)
Alton Howard WR 5'8, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Dallas Thomas LG 6'5, 310 Sr. *** (5.6) 25 career starts
Ja'Wuan James RT 6'6, 323 Jr. **** (5.9) 25 career starts
Zach Fulton RG 6'5, 324 Jr. *** (5.7) 17 career starts
Alex Bullard C 6'2, 300 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 career starts
James Stone RG 6'3, 300 Jr. **** (5.8) 7 career starts
Marcus Jackson LG 6'2, 310 So. **** (5.8) 5 career starts
Antonio Richardson LT 6'6, 332 So. **** (5.9)
Mack Crowder C 6'2, 283 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Kyler Kerbyson LT 6'4, 320 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Alan Posey RT 6'5, 321 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 27 41 48 36
RUSHING 69 38 27 47
PASSING 12 49 75 36
Standard Downs 45 51 41
Passing Downs 47 53 49
Redzone 27 21 32
Q1 Rk 54 1st Down Rk 40
Q2 Rk 25 2nd Down Rk 62
Q3 Rk 90 3rd Down Rk 45
Q4 Rk 36
Adj. Line Yards Rk 40
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 103

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Malik Jackson DT 12 39.5 6.4% 11 2.5 2 1
Maurice Couch DE 6'2, 299 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 23.5 3.8% 6 1.5
Marlon Walls DE 6'2, 285 Jr. **** (6.0) 12 17.0 2.8% 3 1
Ben Martin DE 12 13.5 2.2% 1
Corey Miller DE 6'3, 257 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 13.0 2.1% 2 1 1 1
Daniel Hood DT 6'4, 292 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 5.5 0.9% 1 1
Steven Fowlkes DE 6'5, 255 Sr. *** (5.6)
Darrington Sentimore DE 6'2, 288 Jr. **** (5.9)
Gregory Clark DT 6'2, 323 So. ** (5.4)
Trevarris Saulsberry DE 6'4, 285 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Daniel McCullers DT 6'6, 377 Jr. **** (5.9)
Omari Phillips DT 6'6, 325 Fr. **** (5.8)
Danny O'Brien DT 6'2, 304 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Austin Johnson ILB 12 61.0 9.9% 5 1 4 1
A.J. Johnson OLB 6'2, 240 So. **** (5.8) 12 58.5 9.5% 4.5 2 1
Herman Lathers^ ILB 6'0, 230 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 59.5 8.1% 4.5 2.5 1
Curt Maggitt ILB 6'3, 240 So. **** (5.8) 11 42.5 6.9% 5.5 0.5 1
Jacques Smith OLB 6'2, 244 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 28.5 4.6% 7.5 0.5 1 1
Willie Bohannon ILB 6'2, 253 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 17.5 2.9% 2.5 1.5
Dontavis Sapp OLB


12 15.5 2.5% 1 1 1 1
Daryl Vereen ILB 12 14.5 2.4% 1 1 2
Jordan Williams OLB 6'5, 256 So. *** (5.7) 9 3.5 0.6% 1 1
John Propst ILB 6'0, 225 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 2.5 0.4% 0.5 1
Channing Fugate OLB 6'1, 239 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 1.0 0.2%
Christian Harris ILB 6'1, 226 RSFr. *** (5.5)

^ Lathers missed 2011 with injury.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brian Randolph FS 6'0, 195 So. *** (5.7) 12 46.0 7.5% 1 2 1
Prentiss Waggner CB 6'2, 182 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 44.0 7.2% 3 2 2 7 1
Izauea Lanier^ CB 6'1, 190 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 41.0 6.7% 4
Marsalis Teague CB 5'10, 182 Sr. **** (5.8) 11 20.0 3.3% 0.5 2 1
Brent Brewer FS 6'1, 214 Jr. *** (5.7) 8 20.0 3.3% 3 0.5
Rod Wilks FS 6'0, 221 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 20.0 3.3% 2 1 1
Eric Gordon CB 5'9, 190 Sr. **** (5.9) 10 15.5 2.5% 5 2 1
Art Evans CB 12 10.0 1.6% 1 1
Justin Coleman CB 5'10, 182 So. **** (5.8) 12 10.0 1.6% 2
Byron Moore FS 6'0, 193 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 5.0 0.8% 1 1
LaDarrell McNeil DB 6'1, 195 Fr. **** (5.9)
Deion Bonner DB 5'11, 178 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Lanier is academically ineligible this year.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Matt Darr 6'1, 221 So. 40 38.1 2 16 10 65.0%
Michael Palardy 5'11, 176 Jr. 14 36.8 0 6 1 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Michael Palardy 5'11, 176 Jr. 43 63.1 6 14.0%
Derrick Brodus 5'11, 171 So. 4 59.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Michael Palardy 5'11, 176 Jr. 25-26 6-7 85.7% 3-7 42.9%
Derrick Brodus 5'11, 171 So. 3-3 1-1 100.0% 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Devrin Young KR 5'8, 165 So. 27 23.3 0
Marlin Lane KR 6'0, 205 So. 7 20.4 0
Devrin Young PR 5'8, 165 So. 8 11.8 0
Marlin Lane PR 6'0, 205 So. 7 5.1 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 96
Net Punting 104
Net Kickoffs 21
Touchback Pct 69
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 41
Punt Returns Avg 61

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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