2012 San Jose State Spartans Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 85
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Stanford 3-57 L 15.6 - 29.0 L
10-Sep at UCLA 17-27 L 20.4 - 29.4 L
17-Sep Nevada 14-17 L 24.3 - 24.5 L
24-Sep New Mexico State 34-24 W 24.6 - 31.2 L
1-Oct at Colorado State 38-31 W 26.3 - 30.0 L
8-Oct at BYU 16-29 L 29.5 - 32.1 L
14-Oct Hawaii 28-27 W 24.5 - 29.1 L
29-Oct at Louisiana Tech 28-38 L 27.6 - 29.5 L
5-Nov Idaho 29-32 L 24.4 - 31.5 L
12-Nov at Utah State 33-34 L 24.7 - 29.8 L
19-Nov Navy 27-24 W 26.6 - 27.0 L
26-Nov at Fresno State 27-24 W 27.8 - 29.8 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.5 80 30.3 86
Adj. Points Per Game 24.7 102 29.4 89

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Stanford 9
8-Sep UC Davis NR
15-Sep Colorado State 102
22-Sep at San Diego State 86
29-Sep at Navy 76
13-Oct Utah State 79
20-Oct at UT-San Antonio 109
27-Oct Texas State 122
3-Nov at Idaho 118
10-Nov at New Mexico State 121
17-Nov BYU 34
24-Nov Louisiana Tech 52
Five-Year F/+ Rk 109
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 109
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +1 / -6.9
TO Luck/Game +3.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (6, 4)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 69 104 100 105
RUSHING 111 116 119 103
PASSING 23 85 58 102
Standard Downs 110 114 106
Passing Downs 80 41 96
Redzone 112 118 110
Q1 Rk 84 1st Down Rk 103
Q2 Rk 116 2nd Down Rk 105
Q3 Rk 92 3rd Down Rk 70
Q4 Rk 95
Adj. Line Yards Rk 117
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 29

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Matt Faulkner 274 422 3,149 64.9% 13 13 14 3.2% 7.0
Dasmen Stewart 6'4, 213 Jr. ** (4.9) 21 52 158 40.4% 0 1 2 3.7% 2.8
David Fales 6'3, 220 Jr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Brandon Rutley RB 215 908 4.2 1.6 12 -11.5
DeLeon Eskridge (2010^) RB 5'11, 215 Sr. *** (5.5) 193 698 3.6 0.9 7 -13.1
Tyler Ervin RB 5'10, 170 So. *** (5.6) 29 107 3.7 1.1 1 -0.8
David Freeman RB 5'8, 189 Sr. ** (5.4) 20 71 3.6 1.2 1 -3.4
Jason Simpson RB 6'0, 211 Jr. ** (4.9) 20 64 3.2 0.7 1 -4.3
Dasmen Stewart QB 6'4, 213 Jr. ** (4.9) 18 118 6.6 2.7 1 -1.3
Matt Faulkner QB 18 40 2.2 0.2 0 -4.0
Alvin Jelks RB 6'1, 190 Jr. *** (5.5)




^ Eskridge transferred from Minnesota following the 2010 season.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Noel Grigsby WR 5'11, 170 Jr. *** (5.5) 124 89 886 71.8% 27.4% 61.3% 7.1
Chandler Jones WR 5'11, 174 Jr. NR 91 61 566 67.0% 20.1% 54.9% 5.9
Ryan Otten TE 6'6, 235 Sr. ** (5.2) 80 52 739 65.0% 17.7% 58.8% 8.6
Jabari Carr WR 6'0, 180 So. ** (5.2) 59 33 476 55.9% 13.1% 54.2% 6.2
Brandon Rutley RB 42 27 336 64.3% 9.3% 61.9% 8.1
Kyle Nunn WR 6'2, 202 Jr. *** (5.5) 22 14 139 63.6% 4.9% 45.5% 5.1
Ina Liaina RB 6'1, 243 Sr. *** (5.5) 6 4 24 66.7% 1.3% 100.0% 2.1
Michael Avila WR 6 4 52 66.7% 1.3% 83.3% 6.8
David Freeman RB 5'8, 189 Sr. ** (5.4) 5 2 13 40.0% 1.1% 80.0% 1.0
Peter Tuitupou TE 6'4, 255 Sr. ** (5.3) 6 3 18 50.0% 1.3% 33.3% 2.0

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
David Quessenberry LT 6'6, 291 Sr. NR 25 career starts, 2011 2nd All-WAC
Fred Koloto LG 32 career starts
Andres Vargas RT 30 career starts
Robbie Reed C 23 career starts
Nicholas Kaspar RG 6'4, 284 Jr. ** (5.2) 21 career starts
Moa Ngatuvai LG 6'3, 305 Jr. ** (5.0) 3 career starts
Amar Pal LT 6'4, 277 Jr. ** (4.9)
Reuben Hasani C 6'3, 284 Jr. ** (4.9)
Ryan Jones RG 6'4 ,292 Jr. ** (4.9)
Jacob Orth RG

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 93 72 82 70
RUSHING 106 75 71 81
PASSING 54 78 104 63
Standard Downs 57 57 64
Passing Downs 85 98 78
Redzone 94 100 91
Q1 Rk 51 1st Down Rk 63
Q2 Rk 71 2nd Down Rk 83
Q3 Rk 49 3rd Down Rk 64
Q4 Rk 100
Adj. Line Yards Rk 59
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 100

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Travis Johnson DE 6'3, 240 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 54.5 6.1% 15.5 9.5 1
Andrew Moeaki DT 12 25.5 2.9%
Anthony Larceval DT 6'2, 275 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 24.5 2.8% 4.5 1
Travis Raciti DT 6'5, 293 So. ** (5.2) 12 19.5 2.2% 3.5 1 2
Mohamed Marah DE 12 17.5 2.0% 1.5 1 1 2 1
Cedric Lousi DE


12 13.0 1.5% 0.5 1
Joe Nigos DT 4 5.5 0.6% 0.5

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Keith Smith LB 6'1, 229 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 77.0 8.6% 3.5 2 1 3
Tiuke Tuipulotu LB 12 50.0 5.6% 3.5 1 4 1 2
Pompey Festejo LB 12 50.0 5.6% 3 1 2 1 2
Vince Buhagiar LB 6'4, 240 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 36.0 4.0% 2.5 0.5 1 2
Derek Muaava LB 6'0, 230 So. ** (5.3) 12 10.0 1.1% 1 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
James Orth S 6'2, 203 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 61.0 6.9% 2 4 2 1
Duke Ihenacho S 11 56.5 6.3% 4 1 6 2 2
Peyton Thompson CB 11 42.5 4.8% 4.5 1 3 3 1
Ronnie Yell CB 5'10, 181 Sr. ** (4.9) 10 32.5 3.6% 1.5 1 4 1
Cullen Newsome S 5'10, 203 Sr. NR 12 22.0 2.5% 1.5 1 1 1
Brandon Driver CB 5 15.0 1.7% 1 2
Bene Benwikere CB 6'0, 192 Jr. *** (5.6) 10 13.5 1.5% 0.5 1 3
Damon Ogburn Jr. CB 5'11, 180 Jr. ** (5.2) 11 11.0 1.2% 1
Alex Germany S 9 9.0 1.0% 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Harrison Waid 6'1, 180 Jr. 52 42.8 5 9 16 48.1%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Harrison Waid 6'1, 180 Jr. 65 63.8 8 12.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jens Alvernik 26-26 14-16 87.5% 4-9 44.4%
Harrison Waid 6'1, 180 Jr. 4-4 2-4 50.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tyler Ervin KR 5'10, 170 So. 28 24.0 1
Brandon Rutley KR 15 21.5 0
Michael Avila KR 10 21.6 0
Brandon Rutley PR 5 4.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 16
Net Punting 39
Net Kickoffs 48
Touchback Pct 69
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 61
Punt Returns Avg 66

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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