2012 Ole Miss Rebels Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 95
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep BYU 13-14 L 20.8 - 24.6 L
10-Sep Southern Illinois
42-24 W 25.2 - 30.2 L
17-Sep at Vanderbilt 7-30 L 22.1 - 28.5 L
24-Sep Georgia 13-27 L 22.3 - 28.3 L
1-Oct at Fresno State 38-28 W 28.6 - 30.9 L
15-Oct Alabama 7-52 L 28.4 - 33.2 L
22-Oct Arkansas 24-29 L 29.3 - 29.9 L
29-Oct at Auburn 23-41 L 27.6 - 32.5 L
5-Nov at Kentucky 13-30 L 24.7 - 33.7 L
12-Nov Louisiana Tech 7-27 L 23.0 - 24.4 L
19-Nov LSU 3-52 L 22.4 - 33.0 L
26-Nov at Mississippi State 3-31 L 19.3 - 30.1 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 16.1 116 32.1 96
Adj. Points Per Game 24.5 107 29.9 98

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Central Arkansas NR
8-Sep UTEP 103
15-Sep Texas 9
22-Sep at Tulane 111
29-Sep at Alabama 1
6-Oct Texas A&M 25
13-Oct Auburn 22
27-Oct at Arkansas 15
3-Nov at Georgia 8
10-Nov Vanderbilt 50
17-Nov at LSU 2
24-Nov Mississippi State 44
Five-Year F/+ Rk 53
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 27
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -4.8
TO Luck/Game -1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +4.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 114 66 71 63
RUSHING 84 45 48 49
PASSING 107 86 96 78
Standard Downs 77 74 75
Passing Downs 49 60 42
Redzone 66 67 64
Q1 Rk 37 1st Down Rk 83
Q2 Rk 81 2nd Down Rk 40
Q3 Rk 88 3rd Down Rk 69
Q4 Rk 73
Adj. Line Yards Rk 109
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 110

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Randall Mackey^


77 155 1,112 49.7% 7 5 21 11.9% 5.4
Zack Stoudt


58 120 559 48.3% 2 8 7 5.5% 4.0
Barry Brunetti 6'0, 215 Jr. NR 19 35 144 54.3% 0 0 29 7.9% 3.0
Bo Wallace 6'5, 210 So. *** (5.6)








^ Mackey has moved to WR-H.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jeff Scott RB 5'7, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 116 529 4.6 2.0 6 -2.5
Brandon Bolden RB 96 462 4.8 2.2 4 +0.3
Randall Mackey WR-H 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 62 335 5.4 1.9 1 -1.1
Enrique Davis RB 58 173 3.0 0.7 0 -5.7
Barry Brunetti QB 6'0, 215 Jr. NR 30 139 4.6 2.4 0 -1.2
Nickolas Brassell WR


21 133 6.3 4.0 0 +0.2
Devin Thomas RB 5'9, 209 Sr. *** (5.7) 20 73 3.7 0.8 1 -0.3
I'Tavius Mathers RB 6'0, 195 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jaylen Walton RB 5'8, 164 Fr. *** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Donte Moncrief WR-X 6'2, 214 So. **** (5.8) 63 31 454 49.2% 22.7% 46.0% 4.4
Nickolas Brassell FL


42 24 336 57.1% 15.2% 57.1% 6.3
Ja-Mes Logan WR-Z 6'2, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 41 20 274 48.8% 14.8% 41.5% 4.2
Brandon Bolden RB 22 14 147 63.6% 7.9% 31.8% 11.3
Jamal Mosley TE 6'4, 260 Sr. *** (5.7) 18 12 166 66.7% 6.5% 55.6% 9.3
Jeff Scott RB 5'7, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 17 15 99 88.2% 6.1% 58.8% 6.8
Collins Moore WR-H 6'1, 187 So. *** (5.7) 15 4 69 26.7% 5.4% 46.7% -2.3
Vince Sanders WR-Z 6'1, 190 So. **** (5.9) 13 10 110 76.9% 4.7% 53.8% 9.1
Derrick Herman HB 10 4 30 40.0% 3.6% 40.0% 2.0
Ferbia Allen TE 6'4, 250 Sr. ** (5.3) 8 6 69 75.0% 29% 50.0% 9.1
Philander Moore WR-H 5'11, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 4 13 50.0% 2.9% 87.5% 0.8
Randall Mackey WR-H 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 1 1 5 100.0% 0.4% 100.0% 5.0
Terrell Grant WR-X 6'2, 210 Jr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Bradley Sowell LT 36 career starts
Bobby Massie RT


29 career starts
A.J. Hawkins RG 6'3, 315 Sr. ** (5.3) 15 career starts
Matt Hall RG


12 career starts
Alex Washington LT 10 career starts
Patrick Junen RT 6'6, 320 Jr. NR 10 career starts
Evan Swindall C 6'2, 300 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 career starts
Jared Duke RG 6'7, 335 Jr. *** (5.6) 6 career starts
Aaron Morris LG 6'5, 325 So. **** (5.8) 5 career starts
Emmanuel McCray LT 6'5, 319 Jr. *** (5.5)
Derrick Wilson LT 6'3, 305 Jr. NR
Chase Hughes C 6'2, 305 So. *** (5.6)
Justin Bell LG 6'2, 337 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Pierce Burton RT 6'7, 290 Jr. *** (5.6)
Darone Bailey OL 6'6, 315 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 90 85 102 72
RUSHING 112 96 101 96
PASSING 22 68 97 56
Standard Downs 83 95 73
Passing Downs 89 94 80
Redzone 54 64 47
Q1 Rk 82 1st Down Rk 73
Q2 Rk 85 2nd Down Rk 93
Q3 Rk 111 3rd Down Rk 89
Q4 Rk 17
Adj. Line Yards Rk 85
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 106

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Justin Smith DT 12 35.0 5.4% 3.5 0.5 1
C.J. Johnson DE 6'1, 231 So. ***** (6.1) 11 25.0 3.8% 4 1 1
Kentrell Lockett DE 12 24.0 3.7% 2.5 2
Wayne Dorsey DE 6 18.0 2.8% 5 3 1 2 1
Uriah Grant DT 6'0, 287 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 16.5 2.5% 2 1 1 1
Byron Bennett DT 6'2, 294 So. *** (5.7) 12 12.5 1.9% 2.5
Gerald Rivers DE 6'5, 250 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 10.5 1.6% 4.5 2
Gilbert Pena NT 6'2, 326 Sr. *** (5.7) 10 8.0 1.2% 1
Carlton Martin NT 6'1, 295 So. **** (5.8) 11 4.0 0.6%
Jason Jones DE 6'2, 255 Sr. ** (5.2) 9 3.5 0.5% 1
Cameron Whigham DE 6'2, 255 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 3.0 0.5% 1
Woodrow Hamilton DT 6'3, 295 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Channing Ward DE 6'4, 250 Fr. **** (6.0)
Isaac Gross DT 6'3, 270 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mike Marry MIKE 6'2, 248 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 63.5 9.7% 5 2 1 1
Damien Jackson SLB 12 51.0 7.8% 3 1 1 1
Serderius Bryant STINGER 5'10, 223 So. *** (5.7) 12 44.5 6.8% 2 1 1
Joel Kight MIKE 5'9, 226 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 44.0 6.7% 4.5 1
Aaron Garbutt STINGER 6'2, 200 Sr. *** (5.6) 10 38.0 5.8% 3 1
Ralph Williams MIKE 6'0, 238 So. *** (5.6) 12 35.0 5.4% 4 1
Keith Lewis STINGER 6'2, 233 So. *** (5.6) 12 9.0 1.4% 1
Denzel Nkemdiche STINGER 5'10, 197 RSFr. NR

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Charles Sawyer ROV 5'11, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 57.5 8.8% 3 4 9 1
Marcus Temple DB 6 26.0 4.0% 1 1 2 2
Cody Prewitt ROV 6'3, 210 So. **** (5.8) 12 25.0 3.8% 0.5 1 1
Frank Crawford SS 6'0, 180 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 19.5 3.0% 0.5 1
Vincent Moss CB 12 14.5 2.2% 0.5 1
Wesley Pendleton CB 5'11, 180 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 14.5 2.2% 4
Senquez Golson CB 5'8, 182 So. *** (5.7) 12 13.0 2.0% 1 1
Nickolas Brassell CB


12 12.5 1.9% 0.5 0.5 5 1 1
Cliff Coleman CB 5'10, 188 So. *** (5.6) 10 3.5 0.5% 1
Brishen Mathews HUSKIE 5'11, 202 Jr. *** (5.7) 2 2.0 0.3%
Ivan Nicholas HUSKIE 5'11, 201 Sr. *** (5.6)
Tanner Burns FS 6'1, 186 Sr. ** (4.9)
Chief Brown FS 6'0, 193 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Abdul Bangura CB 5'8, 177 RSFr. ** (5.2)
Dehendret Collins CB 5'11, 175 Jr. *** (5.6)
Trae Elston DB 6'0, 183 Fr. *** (5.7)
Anthony Standifer DB 6'1, 180 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tyler Campbell 6'2, 220 Sr. 72 43.6 7 17 28 62.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Andrew Ritter 6'3, 223 Sr. 43 67.7 12 27.9%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Bryson Rose 5'11, 202 Sr. 20-21 8-9 88.9% 1-2 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tobias Singleton KR 6'0, 190 So. 21 24.6 0
Jeff Scott KR 5'7, 175 Jr. 14 17.7 0
Philander Moore KR 5'11, 190 Jr. 10 21.7 0
Jeff Scott PR 5'7, 175 Jr. 8 17.2 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 13
Net Punting 24
Net Kickoffs 3
Touchback Pct 16
Field Goal Pct 19
Kick Returns Avg 84
Punt Returns Avg 3

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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