2012 North Texas Mean Green Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 102
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep at Florida International 16-41 L 22.7 - 33.2 L
10-Sep Houston 23-48 L 28.4 - 28.2 W
17-Sep at Alabama 0-41 L 24.3 - 33.0 L
24-Sep Indiana 24-21 W 25.7 - 27.8 L
1-Oct at Tulsa 24-41 L 27.2 - 30.3 L
8-Oct Florida Atlantic 31-17 W 19.6 - 29.6 L
15-Oct at UL-Lafayette 10-30 L 20.8 - 29.7 L
22-Oct UL-Monroe 38-21 W 31.9 - 27.0 W
29-Oct at Arkansas State 14-37 L 27.2 - 31.9 L
12-Nov at Troy 38-33 W 30.6 - 31.4 L
19-Nov Western Kentucky 21-31 L 28.3 - 30.8 L
3-Dec Middle Tennessee 59-7 W 30.9 - 18.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.8 76 30.7 88
Adj. Points Per Game 26.5 83 29.3 86

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at LSU 2
8-Sep Texas Southern NR
15-Sep at Kansas State 35
22-Sep Troy 100
29-Sep at Florida Atlantic 114
6-Oct at Houston 29
16-Oct UL-Lafayette 99
27-Oct at Middle Tennessee 113
3-Nov Arkansas State 87
10-Nov South Alabama 120
17-Nov at UL-Monroe 90
24-Nov at Western Kentucky 88
Five-Year F/+ Rk 111
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 105
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +8 / +6.6
TO Luck/Game 0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 96 75 68 75
RUSHING 66 77 75 76
PASSING 87 67 67 68
Standard Downs 47 48 42
Passing Downs 110 110 110
Redzone 88 75 90
Q1 Rk 93 1st Down Rk 51
Q2 Rk 40 2nd Down Rk 80
Q3 Rk 99 3rd Down Rk 68
Q4 Rk 20
Adj. Line Yards Rk 96
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 48

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Derek Thompson 6'4, 220 Jr. ** (5.3) 157 272 1,759 57.7% 11 6 9 3.2% 6.0
Andrew McNulty 6'1, 197 So. ** (5.3) 28 51 352 54.9% 1 3 6 10.5% 5.4
Brent Osborn 6'4, 215 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 21 127 61.9% 2 0 0 0.0% 6.0

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Lance Dunbar RB 269 1,115 4.1 1.6 10 -6.5
James Hamilton RB 92 406 4.4 1.9 4 +0.5
Derek Thompson QB 6'4, 220 So. ** (5.3) 41 174 4.2 1.2 3 -0.9
Brandin Byrd RB 5'10, 211 Jr. ** (5.3) 20 83 4.2 1.3 1 +1.3
Andrew McNulty QB 6'1, 197 So. ** (5.3) 17 101 5.9 3.0 1 +2.2

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Christopher Bynes WR 6'1, 220 Sr. ** (5.4) 61 37 442 60.7% 18.5% 67.2% 5.9
Brelan Chancellor WR 5'9, 177 Jr. ** (5.2) 62 37 457 59.7% 18.8% 50.0% 6.1
Ivan Delgado WR 6'2, 205 Sr. NR 41 26 305 63.4% 12.4% 58.5% 6.7
Lance Dunbar RB 41 29 350 70.7% 12.4% 39.0% 9.3
Andrew Power TE 6'5, 258 Sr. *** (5.6) 27 16 142 59.3% 8.2% 51.9% 4.1
Michael Outlaw WR 24 17 207 70.8% 7.3% 58.3% 8.5
Breece Johnson WR 18 10 89 55.6% 5.5% 50.0% 3.2
Drew Miller TE 6'1, 253 Jr. NR 10 6 105 60.0% 3.0% 70.0% 8.1
Daniel Prior TE 6'2, 240 Sr. ** (5.3) 7 4 23 57.1% 2.1% 100.0% 1.4
Willie Taylor WR


16 6 38 37.5% 4.8% 37.5% 0.0
Roderick Lancaster WR 6'2, 200 Fr. *** (5.5)






Nick Schrapps WR 6'3, 197 Fr. *** (5.5)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Matt Tomlinson RT 27 career starts
Aaron Fortenberry C 6'4, 300 Sr. NR 21 career starts
Antonio Johnson LT 6'6, 285 So. ** (5.4) 12 career starts
Mason Y'Barbo LG 6'2, 312 So. ** (5.4) 12 career starts
Cyril Lemon RG 6'3, 313 So. ** (5.4) 12 career starts
Coleman Feeley LG 6'5, 305 Sr. ** (5.4)
Nicolas Summerfield C 6'1, 268 Sr. NR
Ayodele Adedipe RG
Boone Feldt OL 6'3, 276 Fr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 97 96 88 103
RUSHING 70 90 93 87
PASSING 104 100 81 105
Standard Downs 95 65 102
Passing Downs 71 105 54
Redzone 102 90 104
Q1 Rk 104 1st Down Rk 105
Q2 Rk 95 2nd Down Rk 69
Q3 Rk 43 3rd Down Rk 73
Q4 Rk 86
Adj. Line Yards Rk 90
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 24

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brandon Akpunku DE 12 42.5 6.5% 10 7.5 3 1
Brandon McCoy DE 6'2, 270 Jr. ** (4.7) 12 35.5 5.4% 7.5 4.5 1
Ryan Boutwell DT 6'3, 261 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 22.0 3.4% 2.5 1.5
K.C. Obi DE 6'2, 249 Sr. NR 10 16.5 2.5% 2.5
Tevinn Cantly DT 6'4, 329 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 12.5 1.9% 4 1
Aaron Bellazin DE 6'2, 255 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 7.0 1.1% 2.5 1 1
Richard Abbe DT 6'4, 319 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 6.0 0.9% 0.5 0.5 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Zachary Orr LB 6'1, 231 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 56.5 8.6% 7 2 1 3 1 2
Michael Stojkovic OLB 6'2, 211 So. ** (5.2) 12 37.5 5.7% 5.5 2 1 1
Forlando Johnson OLB 12 33.5 5.1% 3.5 2.5 1
Julian Herron OLB 12 27.0 4.1% 5 3.5 2 4
Will Wright MLB 6'2, 217 Jr. ** (5.2) 11 26.0 4.0% 2.5 2
Jeremy Phillips OLB 6'3, 215 Sr. ** (5.3) 6 18.0 2.7% 1.5 0.5
Derek Akunne MLB 6'0, 250 So. ** (5.3) 10 15.0 2.3% 2.5
Colton Clay LB 6'1, 215 So. NR 12 9.0 1.4% 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ryan Downing S 12 58.5 8.9% 1 1 3 2 2
Brad Graham S 12 43.0 6.6% 3 2 3 1 1
Steven Ford CB 12 42.5 6.5% 2.5 2 5
Royce Hill CB 12 38.0 5.8% 1 2 13 1
Freddie Warner CB 5'10, 177 So. *** (5.6) 7 16.5 2.5% 0.5 0.5 1
D'Leon McCord S 11 14.5 2.2%
Hilbert Jackson CB 6'1, 183 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 11.0 1.7% 2
John Shorter S 11 10.5 1.6% 4 1
Lairamie Lee DB 5'10, 183 So. ** (5.2) 11 9.5 1.4%
D.Q. Johnson DB 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.5)
Xavier Kelly DB 5'11, 165 Fr. *** (5.6)
Marcus Trice (2010^) DB 5'8, 190 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 7.5 0.9%



1

^ Trice transferred from Oklahoma and will be eligible this fall.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Will Atterberry 5'9, 199 Sr. 74 43.5 7 18 26 59.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Zach Olen 5'9, 221 Jr. 55 62.6 9 16.4%
Trent Deans 4 59.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Zach Olen 5'9, 221 Jr. 32-33 3-4 75.0% 5-12 41.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Brelan Chancellor KR 5'9, 177 Jr. 50 21.9 0
Brandin Byrd KR 5'10, 211 Jr. 9 12.0 0
Brelan Chancellor PR 5'9, 177 Jr. 11 2.8 0
Steven Ford 2 5.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 55
Net Punting 9
Net Kickoffs 95
Touchback Pct 57
Field Goal Pct 112
Kick Returns Avg 112
Punt Returns Avg 105

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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