2012 New Mexico State Aggies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-9 | Adj. Record: 0-13 | Final F/+ Rk: 109
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Ohio 24-44 L 25.9 - 29.5 L
10-Sep at Minnesota 28-21 W 25.4 - 30.5 L
17-Sep UTEP 10-16 L 19.8 - 24.6 L
24-Sep at San Jose State 24-34 L 28.2 - 30.6 L
1-Oct at New Mexico 42-28 W 26.9 - 34.0 L
15-Oct Idaho 31-24 W 26.6 - 26.9 L
22-Oct at Hawaii 34-45 L 29.1 - 31.8 L
29-Oct Nevada 34-48 L 28.5 - 31.7 L
5-Nov at Georgia 16-63 L 30.1 - 35.1 L
12-Nov Fresno State 48-45 W 29.7 - 33.5 L
19-Nov at BYU 7-42 L 24.7 - 31.2 L
26-Nov at Louisiana Tech 0-44 L 21.8 - 30.0 L
3-Dec Utah State 21-24 L 27.3 - 28.3 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.5 79 36.8 112
Adj. Points Per Game 26.5 84 30.6 111

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Sacramento State NR
8-Sep at Ohio 61
15-Sep at UTEP 104
22-Sep New Mexico 124
29-Sep UT-San Antonio 109
6-Oct at Idaho 118
20-Oct at Utah State 79
27-Oct Louisiana Tech 52
3-Nov at Auburn 27
10-Nov San Jose State 110
24-Nov BYU 34
1-Dec at Texas State 122
Five-Year F/+ Rk 120
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 116
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -3 / -5.7
TO Luck/Game 1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 8 (5, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.7

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 47 90 103 70
RUSHING 89 105 111 90
PASSING 26 64 75 60
Standard Downs 80 88 66
Passing Downs 81 85 74
Redzone 97 114 68
Q1 Rk 80 1st Down Rk 68
Q2 Rk 76 2nd Down Rk 97
Q3 Rk 53 3rd Down Rk 71
Q4 Rk 84
Adj. Line Yards Rk 91
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 92

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Matt Christian 145 277 2,158 52.3% 15 8 13 4.5% 7.1
Andrew Manley 6'3, 225 So. *** (5.6) 62 109 892 56.9% 6 3 9 7.6% 7.0
Travaughn Colwell 6'3, 185 So. ** (5.4) 39 60 419 65.0% 2 3 12 16.7% 4.9

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Kenny Turner RB


219 1,074 4.9 2.0 10 -2.9
Matt Christian QB 68 398 5.9 2.0 5 +2.2
Robert Clay RB 5'10, 192 Sr. ** (5.4) 42 133 3.2 0.8 1 -7.0
Victor Johnson RB 24 85 3.5 1.2 0 -4.4
Travaughn Colwell QB 6'3, 185 So. ** (5.4) 23 78 3.4 1.1 0 -3.2
Andrew Manley QB 6'3, 225 So. *** (5.6) 12 21 1.8 0.9 0 -1.6

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Taveon Rogers WR-X 104 59 1,049 56.7% 24.5% 62.5% 8.2
Kenny Turner RB


74 46 514 62.2% 17.5% 54.1% 6.2
Todd Lee WR-Z 64 38 578 59.4% 15.1% 62.5% 7.8
Austin Franklin WR-Z 6'2, 175 So. *** (5.5) 49 34 524 69.4% 11.6% 49.0% 10.7
Kemonte' Bateman WR-X 6'1, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 61 28 414 45.9% 14.4% 37.7% 4.3
Jackson KaKa TE 6'4, 210 So. ** (5.2) 22 15 122 68.2% 5.2% 68.2% 4.9
Trevor Walls TE 6'5, 232 Sr. ** (5.0) 14 11 144 78.6% 3.3% 92.9% 11.0
David Quiroga TE 6'1, 220 Sr. ** (5.2) 7 3 29 42.9% 1.7% 71.4% 1.5
Darrius Preston WR 6'1, 170 Sr. NR 8 1 6 12.5% 1.9% 50.0% -0.8
Jerrel Brown WR 6'0, 180 Jr. NR 8 6 79 75.0% 1.9% 50.0% 10.3

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Sioeli Fakalata RG 27 career starts
Aundre McGaskey RT 25 career starts
Davonte Wallace LT 6'4, 272 Jr. ** (5.3) 24 career starts
Mike Grady C 21 career starts
Maveu Heimuli LG 6'4, 338 Sr. ** (4.9) 19 career starts
Andrew Kersten RG 6'6, 305 Sr. *** (5.5) 9 career starts
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke LG 6'2, 267 So. ** (5.3) 7 career starts
Faison McKinnis LT 6'7, 300 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Houston Clemente C 6'2, 285 RSFr. ** (5.2)
Alfred Sharp RT 6'5, 285 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 112 110 104 108
RUSHING 107 113 115 111
PASSING 82 82 62 90
Standard Downs 111 107 111
Passing Downs 97 95 99
Redzone 106 96 108
Q1 Rk 89 1st Down Rk 113
Q2 Rk 103 2nd Down Rk 109
Q3 Rk 115 3rd Down Rk 90
Q4 Rk 105
Adj. Line Yards Rk 102
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 116

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
David Niumatalolo DE 13 57.5 7.6% 12.5 7 2 1 2
Pierre Fils RUSH 13 39.0 5.1% 7.5 3 2 1 2
David Mahoney NT 13 21.5 2.8% 4.5 2 1
Walton Taumoepeau DT 6'3, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 17.0 2.2% 4.5 3 2 2
Stephen Meredith DE 6'4, 240 So. ** (5.4) 12 14.5 1.9% 2
Dejuan Yates DT 13 13.0 1.7% 1 1
Kalvin Cruz DE 6'4, 275 Jr. *** (5.6)



Kevin Laudermill DT 6'3, 300 Jr. *** (5.5)


Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Boyblue Aoelua MIKE 13 55.5 7.3% 4 1 1 1 2
Bryan Bonilla WILL 6'1, 217 Jr. NR 13 47.0 6.2% 1.5 1 1
B.J. Adolpho SAM 5'11, 224 Sr. ** (4.9) 11 29.0 3.8% 3
Alexander LaVoy SAM 6'2, 230 Sr. *** (5.5) 9 27.5 3.6% 1.5 1
Trashaun Nixon LB 6'2, 220 Jr. *** (5.6)


Robert Wagner LB 6'2, 225 Fr. *** (5.6)


Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Donyae Coleman SS 12 101.5 13.4% 0.5 6 7 3 3
Ben Bradley FS 13 72.0 9.5% 4.5 1 3 1
Courtney Viney CB 13 64.5 8.5% 2.5 4
Jonte Green CB 13 60.0 7.9% 2.5 2 14 1
Darien Johnson CB 5'9, 177 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 33.0 4.4% 3 1 2
Jeremy Harris CB 6'2, 180 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 24.5 3.2% 2
Justin Smith SS 6'2, 197 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 21.0 2.8%
Davis Cazares SS 5'11, 190 Sr. NR 13 8.5 1.1%

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jake Capraro 6'1, 214 Jr. 74 39.3 2 20 18 51.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jordan Davenport 60 60.1 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Tyler Stampler 5'10, 173 Sr. 34-38 7-11 63.6% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Taveon Rogers KR 51 25.8 3
Robert Clay KR 5'10, 192 Sr. 5 10.6 0
Todd Lee PR 4 18.0 0
Kemonte' Bateman PR 6'1, 185 Sr. 4 -2.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 114
Net Punting 116
Net Kickoffs 111
Touchback Pct 118
Field Goal Pct 104
Kick Returns Avg 27
Punt Returns Avg 98

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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