2012 Mississippi State Bulldogs Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 43
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep at Memphis 59-14 W 35.6 - 26.6 W
10-Sep at Auburn 34-41 L 27.4 - 31.8 L
15-Sep LSU 6-19 L 22.4 - 26.1 L
24-Sep Louisiana Tech 26-20 W 27.7 - 26.8 W
1-Oct at Georgia 10-24 L 22.4 - 24.3 L
8-Oct at UAB 21-3 W 25.7 - 22.1 W
15-Oct South Carolina 12-14 L 24.2 - 24.1 W
29-Oct at Kentucky 28-16 W 34.7 - 29.7 W
5-Nov UT-Martin 55-17 W 32.0 - 34.0 L
12-Nov Alabama 7-24 L 24.1 - 28.0 L
19-Nov Arkansas 17-44 L 24.1 - 30.3 L
26-Nov Ole Miss 31-3 W 26.0 - 22.5 W
30-Dec vs Wake Forest 23-17 W 26.0 - 24.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 25.3 73 19.7 16
Adj. Points Per Game 27.1 67 27.0 49

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Jackson State NR
8-Sep Auburn 22
15-Sep at Troy 93
22-Sep South Alabama 123
6-Oct at Kentucky 64
13-Oct Tennessee 27
20-Oct Middle Tennessee 112
27-Oct at Alabama 1
3-Nov Texas A&M 25
10-Nov at LSU 2
17-Nov Arkansas 15
24-Nov at Ole Miss 59
Five-Year F/+ Rk 47
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 37
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 0 / -0.3
TO Luck/Game +0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -3.7

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 84 40 48 32
RUSHING 38 46 52 47
PASSING 94 30 48 22
Standard Downs 27 55 15
Passing Downs 75 78 63
Redzone 27 52 15
Q1 Rk 44 1st Down Rk 32
Q2 Rk 47 2nd Down Rk 55
Q3 Rk 70 3rd Down Rk 53
Q4 Rk 22
Adj. Line Yards Rk 55
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 66

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chris Relf 114 190 1,212 60.0% 10 9 11 5.5% 5.7
Tyler Russell 6'4, 220 Jr. **** (5.8) 69 129 1,034 53.5% 8 4 8 5.8% 7.1
Dylan Favre

13 26 119 50.0% 1 0 5 10.3% 3.9
Dak Prescott 6'2, 230 RSFr. *** (5.6)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Vick Ballard RB 193 1,189 6.2 2.7 10 +15.8
Chris Relf QB 112 450 4.0 1.3 2 -7.3
LaDarius Perkins RB 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 87 422 4.9 1.7 2 -3.4
Tyler Russell QB 6'4, 220 Jr. **** (5.8) 25 105 4.2 1.5 1 +0.9
Nick Griffin RB 6'0, 225 So. *** (5.7) 16 108 6.8 3.0 1 +1.7
Robert Elliott RB 12 37 3.1 0.7 0 -2.2
Jameon Lewis WR 5'9, 185 So. *** (5.5) 11 86 7.8 3.5 1 +2.9
Josh Robinson RB 5'9, 215 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Derrick Milton RB 6'0, 205 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Arceto Clark WR 5'10, 180 Sr. ** (5.4) 53 30 442 56.6% 16.0% 67.9% 6.0
Chris Smith WR 6'2, 210 Sr. **** (5.8) 59 35 330 59.3% 17.8% 55.9% 4.5
Chad Bumphis WR 5'10, 200 Sr. **** (5.9) 48 25 339 52.1% 14.5% 68.8% 4.2
Ricco Sanders WR 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.7) 29 15 163 51.7% 8.8% 48.3% 3.5
Vick Ballard RB 30 20 187 66.7% 9.1% 43.3% 5.9
Marcus Green TE 22 11 188 50.0% 6.6% 54.5% 5.7
Michael Carr WR


14 7 90 50.0% 4.2% 78.6% 3.8
LaDarius Perkins RB 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 13 59 100.0% 3.9% 61.5% 5.8
Malcolm Johnson TE 6'2, 230 So. *** (5.6) 19 11 206 57.9% 5.7% 36.8% 8.0
Brandon Heavens WR 5'10, 175 Sr. *** (5.7) 15 10 114 66.7% 4.5% 40.0% 8.5
Jameon Lewis WR 5'9, 185 So. *** (5.5) 9 7 143 77.8% 2.7% 44.4% 16.1
Robert Johnson WR 6'1, 220 So. **** (5.8) 7 4 42 57.1% 2.1% 71.4% 8.6
Brandon Hill TE 6'2, 235 So. ** (5.4) 3 1 3 33.3% 0.9% 66.7% 1.0
Joe Morrow WR 6'4, 205 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Addion Lawrence RT 38 career starts
Gabe Jackson LG 6'4, 320 Jr. *** (5.5) 26 career starts
Quentin Saulserry RG 26 career starts
James Carmon LT 9 career starts
Dillon Day C 6'4, 300 So. ** (5.4) 9 career starts
Blaine Clausell LT 6'7, 305 So. ** (5.4) 4 career starts
Tobias Smith RG 6'3, 305 Sr. *** (5.7) 4 career starts
Joey Trapp LG 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.5)
Damien Robinson RG 6'7, 315 So. **** (5.8)
Templeton Hardy RT 6'4, 300 Sr. **** (5.9)
Archie Muniz RT 6'5, 290 So. *** (5.6)
Eric Lawson RT 6'7, 305 So. *** (5.5)
Ben Beckwith RG 6'3, 300 So. NR
Charles Siddoway LT 6'7, 300 Jr. *** (5.6)
Dylan Holley C 6'3, 295 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 35 32 56 22
RUSHING 61 36 42 32
PASSING 27 32 89 16
Standard Downs 46 61 40
Passing Downs 28 67 9
Redzone 11 29 10
Q1 Rk 59 1st Down Rk 65
Q2 Rk 46 2nd Down Rk 26
Q3 Rk 27 3rd Down Rk 50
Q4 Rk 49
Adj. Line Yards Rk 68
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 73

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Fletcher Cox DT 12 41.0 5.0% 14.5 5 1 1
Josh Boyd DT 6'3, 300 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 32.5 4.0% 8 4.5
Sean Ferguson DE 12 29.5 3.6% 5.5 3
Kaleb Eulls DT 6'4, 280 So. **** (5.8) 13 19.0 2.3% 3 1
Dewayne Cherrington DT 6'3, 335 Sr. NR 8 8.5 1.0% 2.5
Trevor Stigers DE 9 8.0 1.0% 1 1 2
Shane McCardell DE 6'5, 260 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 7.5 0.9% 1 1 1 1 1
Curtis Virges DT 6'3, 305 So. *** (5.7) 9 7.5 0.9% 2.5 2
Devin Jones DT 6'1, 260 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 6.5 0.8% 1.5 1
P.J. Jones DT 6'3, 280 So. **** (5.8) 12 5.5 0.7% 1
Preston Smith DE 6'6, 245 So. *** (5.5) 9 5.5 0.7% 1 1
John Harris DE 6'5, 235 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Denico Autry DE 6'5, 255 Jr. **** (6.0)
Quay Evans DT 6'3, 300 Fr. **** (5.8)
A.J. Jefferson DE 6'2, 245 Fr. *** (5.7)
Nick James DT 6'4, 330 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Cameron Lawrence LB 6'2, 230 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 86.5 10.6% 6 2 2 5 2 1
Brandon Wilson LB 13 68.5 8.4% 2.5 0.5 1 1
Deontae Skinner LB 6'2, 245 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 48.5 5.9% 9 2
Brandon Maye LB 11 26.0 3.2% 3
Matthew Wells LB 6'2, 215 So. *** (5.7) 13 26.0 3.2% 5 1
Christian Holmes LB 6'1, 225 So. ** (5.4) 13 13.0 1.6%
Ferlando Bohanna LB 6'0, 225 So. *** (5.7) 10 7.0 0.9% 1
Chris Hughes LB 6'1, 225 Jr. *** (5.6) 5 1.0 0.1% 1
Benardrick McKinney LB 6'5, 235 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Richie Brown LB 6'2, 225 Fr. **** (5.8)
Beniquez Brown LB 6'1, 209 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Charles Mitchell SS 13 72.5 8.9% 3 1 3 1
Johnthan Banks CB 6'2, 185 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 58.5 7.2% 8 3 5 9 3
Wade Bonner FS 13 52.0 6.4% 1 1 4 1
Corey Broomfield CB 5'10, 180 Sr. ** (4.9) 13 49.0 6.0% 5 1 5
Nickoe Whitley FS 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 9 31.0 3.8% 2 4 1 1
Darius Slay CB 6'1, 190 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 19.5 2.4% 1 1 4 1
Jamerson Love CB 5'10, 175 So. *** (5.6) 13 15.0 1.8% 2 1
Marvin Bure DB 11 14.5 1.8%
Jay Hughes SS 5'11, 190 So. *** (5.6) 13 10.0 1.2% 1
Damein Anderson DB 13 9.5 1.2% 2 1
Dee Arrington SS 6'1, 215 So. *** (5.7) 9 7.0 0.9%
Louis Watson SS 5'11, 185 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 5.0 0.6%
Taveze Calhoun SS 6'1, 180 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Kendrick Market FS 5'10, 190 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Will Redmond DB 5'11, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)
Cedric Jiles DB 5'10, 170 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Baker Swedenburg 6'0, 185 Jr. 71 41.8 8 21 19 56.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Brian Egan
60 64 6 10.0%
Derek DePasquale

6 49.8 1 16.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Derek DePasquale

36-37 10-12 83.3% 2-6 33.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jameon Lewis KR 5'9, 185 So. 21 18.4 0
LaDarius Perkins KR 5'10, 190 Jr. 16 22.7 0
Johnthan Banks PR 6'2, 185 Sr. 16 10.4 1
Chad Bumphis PR 5'11, 200 Sr. 8 16.6 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 42
Net Punting 34
Net Kickoffs 42
Touchback Pct 78
Field Goal Pct 90
Kick Returns Avg 116
Punt Returns Avg 24

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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