2012 Massachusetts Minutemen Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom. (However, most terms at the bottom will not apply to teams that spent 2011 in FCS and, therefore, have no advanced data of which to speak.)

2011 Schedule & Results

All team rankings below are from last year's FCS data.

Record: 5-6
Date Opponent Score W-L
1-Sep at Holy Cross 24-16 W
17-Sep Rhode Island 36-27 W
24-Sep at Boston College 17-45 L
1-Oct at Old Dominion 33-48 L
8-Oct Central Connecticut 42-26 W
15-Oct at Delaware 21-10 W
22-Oct New Hampshire 21-27 L
29-Oct at Richmond 28-7 W
5-Nov Villanova 17-35 L
12-Nov at Maine 21-32 L
19-Nov James Madison 17-34 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 25.2 62 27.9 64

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug at Connecticut 53
8-Sep Indiana 98
15-Sep at Michigan 12
9/22 at Miami-OH 77
9/29 Ohio 61
10/6 at Western Michigan 69
10/20 Bowling Green 64
10/27 at Vanderbilt 36
11/3 at Northern Illinois 57
11/10 at Akron 123
11/17 Buffalo 107
11/23 Central Michigan 84
TO Margin -5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 4 / 10
Yds/Pt Margin +1.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
OVERALL 58
RUSHING 81
PASSING 40

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Yards/
Pass
Kellen Pagel 6'3, 212 Jr. NR 153 267 1,725 57.3% 9 9 6.5
Brandon Hill 6'5, 218 So. NR 49 84 598 58.3% 3 3 7.1
Ray Pendagast 6'5, 200 So. NR 19 31 237 61.3% 1 1 7.6

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
TD
Jonathan Hernandez RB 261 1,092 4.2 12
Alan Williams RB 5'8, 191 Sr. NR 35 140 4.0 1
Jordan Broadnax RB 5'9, 175 So. NR 35 117 3.3 0
Kellen Pagel QB 6'3, 212 Jr. NR 17 28 1.6 2
Brandon Hill QB 6'5, 218 So. NR 16 -104 -6.5 0
Jamar Smith RB 5'11, 202 Jr. NR 10 14 1.4 0
Stacey Bedell RB 5'10, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Catches Yards Yards/
Catch
Julian Talley WR 60 759 12.6
Jesse Julmiste WR 43 522 12.1
Tom Gilson WR 39 446 11.4
Emil Igwenagu TE 38 375 9.9
Jonathan Hernandez RB 18 209 11.6
Rob Blanchflower TE 6'4, 250 Jr. NR 18 208 11.6
Marken Michel WR 5'10, 185 So. *** (5.5) 3 31 10.3
Bernard Davis WR 6'1, 175 Fr. ** (5.4)
Rodney Mills WR 6'1, 205 Fr. ** (5.4)
Tajae Sharpe WR 6'3, 175 Fr. ** (5.4)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Stephane Milhim RG 6'5, 310 Sr. NR 28 career games, 2011 3rd All-CAA
Nick Speller LT 6'5, 334 Sr. NR 22 career games, 2011 3rd All-CAA
Josh Samuda LG 45 career games
Quinton Sales C 6'2, 290 Sr. *** (5.6) 22 career games
Brian Ostaszewski RG 21 career games
Anthony Dima RT 6'7, 310 Jr. NR 14 career games
Vincent Westcarr LT 6'4, 308 Jr. NR 4 career games
Malcolm Speller LG 6'4, 300 Sr. NR 2 career games
Anddy Moas C 6'4, 295 So. NR 2 career games
Ryan Young RT 6'5, 293 So. NR 0 career games

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
OVERALL 64
RUSHING 66
PASSING 63

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Theo Agnew DT 6'4, 262 Jr. NR 11 27.5 4.0% 3 1 1
Brandon Potvin DE 6'1, 262 Jr. NR 11 27.0 3.9% 4.5 1 1
Charles Thompson NT 6'2, 282 Sr. NR 11 25.5 3.7% 4 3 2
Kevin Byrne DT 6'3, 290 Jr. NR 8 19.5 2.8% 1 1
Galen Clemons NT 6'2, 275 Jr. NR 11 16.5 2.4% 2 1.5
James Gilchrist DT 9 10.0 1.5% 4.5 2 1
Courtney Jackson DE 5'11, 212 Sr. NR 8 9.5 1.4% 1 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tyler Holmes ILB 11 93.5 13.6% 6 2 1 7 1 1
Perry McIntyre ILB 6'1, 230 Sr. NR 11 84.5 12.3% 11.5 6.5 2
Chad Hunte OLB 5'11, 212 Sr. NR 11 47.5 6.9% 2
Tim Brandt ILB 6'0, 212 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 28.5 4.2% 3.5 3 1 1
D.J. Adeoba OLB 5'11, 217 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 22.5 3.3% 2 1 3 1
Shane Viveiros OLB 6 20.5 3.0% 3 1 1 2 1
Tom Brandt ILB 6'0, 215 Jr. NR 9 8.0 1.2% 1 1
Greg Hilliard OLB 6'3, 205 So. NR 10 6.5 0.9% 0.5 0.5
Ryan Delaire LB 6'4, 245 So. NR 10 6.0 0.9% 1 0.5

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Darren Thellen S 6'2, 207 Sr. NR 11 55.0 8.0% 5 3
Kirk Nelms CB 5'10, 165 So. NR 11 34.5 5.0% 2 3 5 1 1
Ed Saint-Vil S 5'11, 190 So. NR 9 31.5 4.6% 1.5 2 1 1
Antoine Tharpe CB 5'10, 190 Jr. NR 9 28.0 4.1% 2 7
Christian Birt CB 6'2, 197 Jr. ** (4.9) 10 27.5 4.0% 1 1 4
Ryan Carter S 5'11, 188 Jr. NR 11 16.5 2.4% 2 1 1 1 1
Mike Lee DB 5'10, 185 Jr. NR 3 8.5 1.2% 2 1
Quayshun Smith CB 5'9, 160 So. ** (5.2) 7 6.0 0.9% 2

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jeff Strait 6'0, 197 Jr. 34 37.3 4 6 10 47.1%
Ray Pendagast 6'5, 200 So. 16 35.8 1 0 6 43.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Brandon Yelovich

47 57.6 1 2.1%
Brandon Levengood 6'1, 197 Jr. 8 62.8 3 37.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Brandon Levengood 6'1, 197 Jr. 18-23 5-6 83.3% 0-1 0.0%
Brandon Yelovich

11-11 3-6 50.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jesse Julmiste KR

32 24.7 2
Chase Danska KR 5'9, 173 Sr. 11 10.7 0
Brian Dowling KR 5'9, 190 So. 8 15.8 0
Julian Talley PR

15 8.1 0

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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