2012 LSU Tigers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 13-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 2
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep vs Oregon 40-27 W 25.7 - 21.2 W
10-Sep Northwestern State
49-3 W 30.7 - 5.8 W
15-Sep at Mississippi State 19-6 W 30.0 - 14.7 W
24-Sep at West Virginia 47-21 W 34.3 - 24.0 W
1-Oct Kentucky 35-7 W 29.9 - 20.0 W
8-Oct Florida 41-11 W 39.1 - 21.4 W
15-Oct at Tennessee 38-7 W 34.1 - 24.2 W
22-Oct Auburn 45-10 W 33.9 - 22.4 W
5-Nov at Alabama 9-6 W 28.4 - 22.2 W
12-Nov Western Kentucky 42-9 W 41.1 - 18.9 W
19-Nov at Ole Miss 52-3 W 36.1 - 20.6 W
25-Nov Arkansas 41-17 W 35.4 - 19.1 W
3-Dec vs Georgia 42-10 W 36.5 - 18.2 W
9-Jan vs Alabama 0-21 L 18.7 - 25.9 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 35.7 17 11.3 2
Adj. Points Per Game 32.4 8 19.9 2

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep North Texas 109
8-Sep Washington 55
15-Sep Idaho 116
22-Sep at Auburn 22
29-Sep Towson NR
6-Oct at Florida 10
13-Oct South Carolina 17
20-Oct at Texas A&M 25
3-Nov Alabama 1
10-Nov Mississippi State 44
17-Nov Ole Miss 59
23-Nov at Arkansas 15
Five-Year F/+ Rk 5
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 8
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +20 / +16.7
TO Luck/Game +1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (7, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -13.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 86 3 4 3
RUSHING 22 6 4 7
PASSING 106 2 11 1
Standard Downs 5 5 4
Passing Downs 3 7 2
Redzone 2 2 4
Q1 Rk 34 1st Down Rk 8
Q2 Rk 3 2nd Down Rk 2
Q3 Rk 2 3rd Down Rk 1
Q4 Rk 2
Adj. Line Yards Rk 3
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 70

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Jarrett Lee 104 167 1,306 62.3% 14 3 4 2.3% 7.5
Rob Bolden 6'4, 208 Jr. **** (5.9) 53 135 685 39.3% 2 7 8 5.6% 4.4
Jordan Jefferson 61 100 737 61.0% 6 2 4 3.8% 6.2
Zach Mettenberger 6'5, 230 Jr. **** (5.8) 8 11 92 72.7% 1 0 0 0.0% 8.4
Jerrard Randall 6'1, 186 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Stephen Rivers 6'8, 225 RSFr. *** (5.7)

^ Bolden is a Penn State transfer, eligible immediately.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Spencer Ware RB 5'11, 225 Jr. ***** (6.1) 180 714 4.0 1.0 8 +1.4
Michael Ford RB 5'10, 216 Jr. **** (6.0) 131 757 5.8 2.0 7 +12.5
Alfred Blue RB 6'2, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 78 539 6.9 3.0 7 +15.6
Jordan Jefferson QB
71 387 5.5 2.2 3 +5.6
Kenny Hilliard RB 6'0, 231 So. **** (5.9) 67 352 5.3 1.6 8 +9.7
Terrence Magee RB 5'9, 212 Jr. *** (5.7) 27 133 4.9 1.6 1 +0.3
Rob Bolden QB 6'4, 208 Jr. **** (5.9) 21 99 4.7 1.7 0 -1.3

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Rueben Randle WR 87 56 930 64.4% 31.3% 57.5% 10.2
Odell Beckham Jr. WR 6'0, 187 So. **** (5.9) 61 44 504 72.1% 21.9% 72.1% 9.3
Deangelo Peterson TE 28 19 186 67.9% 10.1% 46.4% 6.1
Russell Shepard WR 6'1, 195 Sr. ***** (6.1) 25 13 176 52.0% 9.0% 60.0% 4.7
Spencer Ware RB 5'11, 225 Jr. ***** (6.1) 16 12 71 75.0% 5.8% 37.5% 4.5
Chase Clement TE 6'5, 265 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 7 96 58.3% 4.3% 58.3% 6.5
Kadron Boone WR 6'0, 207 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 7 82 58.3% 4.3% 41.7% 7.9
James Wright WR 6'2, 203 Jr. **** (5.8) 10 5 41 50.0% 3.6% 90.0% 1.9
Jarvis Landry WR 6'1, 195 So. ***** (6.1) 8 4 43 50.0% 2.9% 37.5% 4.4
Michael Ford RB 5'10, 216 Jr. **** (6.0) 7 4 10 57.1% 2.5% 42.9% 3.5
Travis Dickson TE 6'3, 230 So. **** (5.8) 1 1 10 100.0% 0.4% 0.0% 10.0
Armand Williams WR 6'3, 200 So. *** (5.6)
Nic Jacobs TE 6'5, 265 So. *** (5.6)
Paul Turner WR 5'11, 192 RSFr. *** (5.7)




Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Alex Hurst RT 6'6, 331 Sr. *** (5.6) 24 career starts, 2011 1st All-SEC
Will Blackwell LG 16 career starts, 2011 1st All-SEC
T-Bob Hebert RG 27 career starts
P.J. Lonergan C 6'4, 305 Sr. *** (5.5) 26 career starts
Josh Dworaczyk LG 6'6, 300 Sr. **** (5.8) 26 career starts
Chris Faulk LT 6'6, 323 Jr. **** (6.0) 15 career starts
Josh Williford RG 6'7, 332 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 career starts
Greg Shaw LT 2 career starts
Chris Davenport LT 6'4, 330 Jr. ***** (6.1)
Ben Dominique C 6'3, 270 Jr. NR
La'el Collins LG 6'5, 321 So. ***** (6.1)
Trai Turner RG 6'3, 306 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Vadal Alexander RT 6'6, 350 Fr. **** (5.8)
Derek Edinburgh, Jr. OL 6'8, 316 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 2 2 3 2
RUSHING 5 2 2 2
PASSING 8 2 7 2
Standard Downs 1 2 1
Passing Downs 5 24 3
Redzone 2 1 2
Q1 Rk 1 1st Down Rk 1
Q2 Rk 5 2nd Down Rk 2
Q3 Rk 2 3rd Down Rk 5
Q4 Rk 6
Adj. Line Yards Rk 6
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 9

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Micahel Brockers DT 14 40.0 5.4% 10 2 1 2 1
Bennie Logan DT 6'3, 295 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 39.5 5.4% 6.5 3 1 1
Sam Montgomery DE 6'5, 260 Jr. **** (5.9) 14 36.0 4.9% 13.5 9 1
Barkevious Mingo DE 6'5, 240 Jr. **** (5.9) 14 33.5 4.6% 15 8 2 1
Lavar Edwards DE 6'5, 258 Sr. *** (5.5) 14 17.5 2.4% 4.5 1 2 1
Kendrick Adams DE 13 16.0 2.2% 6.5 2.5 1
Jermauria Rasco DE 6'3, 255 So. **** (5.8) 9 13.5 1.8% 3.5 2
Anthony Johnson DT 6'3, 304 So. ***** (6.1) 14 9.0 1.2% 3 1
Ego Ferguson DT 6'3, 308 So. **** (6.0) 13 8.0 1.1% 0.5 1
Chancey Aghayere DE 6'4, 265 Sr. **** (5.9) 8 1.5 0.2%
Jordan Allen DE 6'6, 253 So. **** (5.9) 3 1.0 0.1%
Justin Maclin DE 6'4, 237 So. **** (5.8)
Quentin Thomas DT 6'3, 294 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Danielle Hunter DE 6'5, 235 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ryan Baker WLB 13 43.5 5.9% 3.5 1.5
Kevin Minter MLB 6'2, 245 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 41.0 5.6% 3.5 1 1 1 1
Tahj Jones SLB 6'2, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 18.0 2.4% 3.5 1 1 1 1
Karnell Hatcher MLB 12 17.0 2.3% 2
Lamin Barrow WLB 6'2, 232 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 10.5 1.4% 1
Luke Muncie WLB 6'3, 210 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 9.5 1.3% 0.5 1
Stefoin Francois SLB 13 7.0 1.0% 1
D.J. Welter MLB 6'0, 226 So. *** (5.6) 7 3.0 0.4%
Lamar Louis SLB 6'0, 220 Fr. **** (5.8)
Kwon Alexander SLB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Lorenzo Phillips LB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Trey Granier MLB 6'1, 227 Fr. *** (5.7)
Ronnie Feist WLB 6'2, 230 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tyrann Mathieu CB


13 67.5 9.2% 7.5 1.5 2 9 6 5
Eric Reid FS 6'2, 212 Jr. **** (5.9) 13 64.5 8.8% 2 2 3 2 1
Brandon Taylor SS 14 55.0 7.5% 7.5 1 2 5
Morris Claiborne CB 14 41.5 5.6% 1 6 6
Tharold Simon CB 6'3, 193 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 36.0 4.9% 2.5 2 10 1
Ron Brooks CB 14 25.0 3.4% 6.5 3.5 2 6 2 3
Derrick Bryant FS 12 21.0 2.9% 2 1 2
Craig Loston SS 6'2, 205 Jr. ***** (6.1) 11 11.0 1.5% 1 1
Ronald Martin FS 6'1, 202 So. *** (5.6) 3 2.5 0.3% 2
Jalen Collins CB 6'2, 195 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Micah Eugene SS 5'11, 190 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Dwayne Thomas CB 6'0, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jalen Mills CB 6'0, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brad Wing 6'3, 197 So. 59 44.4 5 15 27 71.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
James Hairston 6'1, 220 So. 70 65.7 16 22.9%
Drew Alleman 5'11, 183 Sr. 13 55.8 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Drew Alleman 5'11, 183 Sr. 62-63 13-14 92.9% 3-4 75.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tyrann Mathieu PR

27 15.6 2
Odell Beckham, Jr. PR 6'0, 187 So. 9 8.6 0
Morris Claiborne KR 22 25.1 1
Odell Beckham, Jr. KR 6'0, 187 So. 5 24.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 6
Net Punting 3
Net Kickoffs 36
Touchback Pct 45
Field Goal Pct 3
Kick Returns Avg 64
Punt Returns Avg 12

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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