2012 Kentucky Wildcats Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom.

2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 89
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Western Kentucky 14-3 W 17.2 - 15.6 W
10-Sep Central Michigan 27-13 W 25.0 - 25.5 L
17-Sep Louisville 17-24 L 24.0 - 31.5 L
24-Sep Florida 10-48 L 23.1 - 33.1 L
1-Oct at LSU 7-35 L 21.5 - 27.3 L
8-Oct at South Carolina 3-54 L 14.7 - 32.1 L
22-Oct Jacksonville State
38-14 W 28.9 - 24.9 W
29-Oct Mississippi State 16-28 L 25.2 - 32.6 L
5-Nov Ole Miss 30-13 W 26.7 - 29.8 L
12-Nov at Vanderbilt 8-38 L 23.4 - 32.2 L
19-Nov at Georgia 10-19 L 18.9 - 21.6 L
26-Nov Tennessee 10-7 W 22.8 - 22.9 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 15.8 117 24.7 53
Adj. Points Per Game 22.6 113 27.4 55

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Louisville 41
8-Sep Kent State 99
15-Sep Western Kentucky 94
22-Sep at Florida 10
29-Sep South Carolina 17
6-Oct Mississippi State 44
13-Oct at Arkansas 15
20-Oct Georgia 8
27-Oct at Missouri 28
3-Nov Vanderbilt 50
17-Nov Samford NR
24-Nov at Tennessee 27
Five-Year F/+ Rk 55
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 50
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +1 / -2.7
TO Luck/Game +1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (6, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 118 109 108 107
RUSHING 90 82 45 94
PASSING 114 115 120 110
Standard Downs 106 97 107
Passing Downs 107 107 106
Redzone 61 35 86
Q1 Rk 114 1st Down Rk 116
Q2 Rk 101 2nd Down Rk 56
Q3 Rk 102 3rd Down Rk 114
Q4 Rk 80
Adj. Line Yards Rk 64
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 107

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Morgan Newton 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.7) 83 174 793 47.7% 8 7 18 9.4% 3.5
Maxwell Smith 6'4, 224 So. *** (5.5) 84 153 819 54.9% 4 4 16 9.5% 4.2
Jacob Russell 6'4, 224 So. NR
Patrick Towles 6'5, 242 Fr. **** (5.8)

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
CoShik Williams RB 5'9, 178 Sr. NR 118 486 4.1 1.2 3 -7.5
Josh Clemons RB 5'10, 204 So. *** (5.6) 65 279 4.3 1.9 2 -1.8
Morgan Newton QB 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.7) 60 384 6.4 3.0 2 +0.5
Jonathan George RB 5'10, 223 Jr. ** (4.9) 51 208 4.1 1.2 2 -2.6
Raymond Sanders III RB 5'8, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 39 163 4.2 1.2 0 -4.0
Matt Roark WR 30 161 5.4 2.2 0 -1.3
Brandon Gainer RB


11 39 3.5 0.8 0 -1.4
Derek Bishop RB 5'7, 192 RSFr. NR
Justin Taylor RB 5'10, 205 Fr. *** (5.7)
Dyshawn Mobley RB 5'11, 223 Fr. *** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
La'Rod King WR 6'4, 222 Sr. *** (5.5) 79 40 598 50.6% 25.2% 51.9% 5.3
Matt Roark WR 62 36 349 58.1% 19.7% 56.5% 4.4
CoShik Williams RB 5'9, 178 Sr. NR 29 19 70 65.5% 9.2% 44.8% 2.2
Nick Melillo TE 27 17 186 63.0% 8.6% 51.9% 6.0
Jordan Aumiller (2010) TE 6'4, 240 Jr. ** (5.4) 26 18 193 69.2% 6.0% 65.4% 7.4
Gene McCaskill WR 6'0, 197 Sr. ** (5.0) 21 9 85 42.9% 6.7% 23.8% 1.1
E.J. Fields WR 6'1, 199 Sr. *** (5.6) 20 10 89 50.0% 6.4% 60.0% 2.2
Brian Adams WR


15 5 46 33.3% 4.8% 33.3% 1.2
Tyler Robinson TE 6'3, 258 Jr. ** (5.4) 14 8 44 57.1% 4.5% 28.6% 2.8
Demarco Robinson WR 5'10, 158 So. *** (5.6) 11 5 17 45.5% 3.5% 63.6% 0.7
Josh Clemons RB 5'10, 204 So. *** (5.6) 5 4 53 80.0% 1.6% 80.0% 10.0
Ronnie Shields TE 6'5, 243 So. ** (5.4) 4 2 10 50.% 1.3% 50.0% 2.5
Aaron Boyd WR 6'4, 214 Sr. **** (5.8) 1 1 5 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 5.0
Bookie Cobbins WR 6'0, 184 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Daryl Collins WR 5'11, 196 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Rashad Cunningham WR 6'4, 216 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Derrick Quarles WR 5'11, 183 RSFr. NR
A.J. Legree WR 6'1, 178 Fr. *** (5.6)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Larry Warford RG 6'3, 343 Sr. *** (5.6) 25 career starts, 2011 2nd All-SEC
Stuart Hines LG 35 career starts
Chandler Burden LT 26 career starts
Matt Smith C 6'4, 296 Sr. ** (5.2) 22 career starts
Billy Joe Murphy RT 19 career starts
Jake Lanefski C 7 career starts
Darrian Miller LT 6'5, 293 So. *** (5.7) 2 career starts
Kevin Mitchell RT 6'6, 287 Jr. ** (5.4) 1 career start
Trevino Woods RT 6'5, 281 Sr. ** (5.2)
Teven Eatmon-Nared LG 6'7, 342 So. ** (5.4)
Zach West LG 6'4, 312 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Max Godby C 6'4, 280 So. NR
Shaquille Love RG 6'4, 310 RSFr. *** (5.5)
John Gruenschlaeger LT 6'11, 339 RSFr. NR
Zach Myers OL 6'3, 285 Fr. *** (5.6)
Jordan Watson OL 6'4, 324 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 58 57 72 45
RUSHING 87 68 96 50
PASSING 21 44 41 47
Standard Downs 65 87 54
Passing Downs 68 69 71
Redzone 77 77 78
Q1 Rk 64 1st Down Rk 88
Q2 Rk 43 2nd Down Rk 67
Q3 Rk 95 3rd Down Rk 59
Q4 Rk 59
Adj. Line Yards Rk 117
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 79

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Collins Ukwu DE 6'5, 258 Sr. ** (5.3) 9 20.5 3.1% 6.5 2.5 1 3
Donte Rumph DT 6'3, 301 Jr. *** (5.6) 11 20.5 3.1% 3 1
Mister Cobble DT 6'0, 328 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 20.5 3.1% 3 1
Mike Douglas DT 6'4, 269 So. *** (5.6) 9 13.5 2.1% 2 1 1
Christian Coleman DT 6'3, 298 So. *** (5.5) 12 13.5 2.1% 0.5 2
Luke McDermott DT 12 12.5 1.9% 1.5 1.5 1
Taylor Wyndham DE 6'4, 252 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 10.5 1.6% 1 1
Antwane Glenn DE 12 8.5 1.3% 1 1
Mark Crawford DT 8 6.5 1.0% 3 1
Alvin Davis DE 6'4, 259 So. *** (5.5) 12 1.0 0.2%
Tristian Johnson DT 6'1, 272 Jr. *** (5.5) 2 1.0 0.2%
Farrington Huguenin DE 6'4, 255 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Thomas Chapman DT 6'4, 297 Fr. *** (5.7)

Langston Newton DE 6'4, 258 Fr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Danny Trevathan WLB 12 105.0 16.1% 11.5 3 4 5 5 1
Ronnie Sneed MLB 12 46.0 7.1% 1.5 2 1
Avery Williamson MLB 6'1, 243 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 37.5 5.8% 1.5 1 1
Ridge Wilson SLB


9 30.0 4.6% 3 2 1
Alvin Dupree SLB 6'4, 249 So. *** (5.6) 12 16.5 2.5% 2.5 2.5 2 1
Malcolm McDuffen MLB 6'3, 216 So. *** (5.5) 12 7.0 1.1%
Tyler Brause MLB 6'4, 241 So. *** (5.5)
TraVaughn Paschal SLB 6'4, 246 So. NR
Demarius Rancifer WLB 6'2, 226 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Jabari Johnson MLB 6'1, 255 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Tre' Dunn WLB 6'2, 218 So. NR
Kadeem Thomas LB 6'0, 225 Fr. *** (5.6)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Winston Guy S 12 88.5 13.6% 14 1.5 2 2 1 1
Martavius Neloms S 6'1, 186 Sr. ** (5.3) 10 50.5 7.7% 2.5 1 1 5 1 1
Randall Burden CB 12 33.5 5.1% 2.5 1 3 2
Anthony Mosley CB 12 24.5 3.8% 1 5
Mikie Benton FS 5'11, 195 Sr. NR 12 23.0 3.5% 0.5 7
Ashely Lowery S 6'1, 212 So. *** (5.6) 12 14.0 2.1% 1
Dakotah Tyler (2010^) S 5'11, 207 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 11.0 1.7% 1
1 1
Cartier Rice CB 5'10, 183 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 8.0 1.2% 3
Taiedo Smith S 6 7.0 1.1% 1 1
Eric Dixon CB 5'11, 184 So. *** (5.6) 12 3.5 0.5% 1 1
Glenn Faulkner S 6'2, 186 So. **** (5.8) 11 0.5 0.1%
Eric Simmons CB 6'0, 200 So. ** (5.4)
Jerry Williams CB 6'0, 166 RSFr. NR
Marcus Caffey CB 5'11, 201 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Zack Blaylock DB 6'0, 188 Fr. *** (5.7)

Fred Tiller DB 6'0, 180 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Tyler did not play, and was not enrolled, in 2011.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ryan Tydlacka 79 43.6 7 13 19 40.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Joe Mansour 6'2, 184 Jr. 44 65.2 14 31.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Craig McIntosh 6'0, 200 Sr. 20-21 9-10 90.0% 3-4 75.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Mychal Bailey KR 29 20.7 0
Winston Guy KR 5 23.6 0
Ashely Lowery KR 6'1, 212 So. 5 21.4 0
Randall Burton PR 15 1.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 59
Net Punting 13
Net Kickoffs 14
Touchback Pct 13
Field Goal Pct 8
Kick Returns Avg 86
Punt Returns Avg 119

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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