2012 Idaho Vandals Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 110
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Bowling Green 15-32 L 21.7 - 29.4 L
10-Sep North Dakota 44-14 W 23.6 - 25.4 L
17-Sep at Texas A&M 7-37 L 19.4 - 28.8 L
24-Sep Fresno State 24-48 L 23.9 - 30.8 L
1-Oct at Virginia 20-21 L 21.4 - 29.0 L
8-Oct Louisiana Tech 11-24 L 18.4 - 25.3 L
15-Oct at New Mexico State 24-31 L 18.7 - 29.6 L
29-Oct Hawaii 14-16 L 21.3 - 22.9 L
5-Nov at San Jose State 32-29 W 24.2 - 29.0 L
12-Nov at BYU 7-42 L 22.5 - 33.0 L
19-Nov Utah State 42-49 L 28.3 - 30.5 L
3-Dec at Nevada 3-56 L 20.6 - 32.1 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 20.3 107 33.3 98
Adj. Points Per Game 22.0 115 28.8 81

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Eastern Washington NR
8-Sep at Bowling Green 64
15-Sep at LSU 2
22-Sep Wyoming 108
29-Sep at North Carolina 32
6-Oct New Mexico State 121
13-Oct at Texas State 122
20-Oct at Louisiana Tech 52
3-Nov San Jose State 110
10-Nov at BYU 34
17-Nov UT-San Antonio 109
24-Nov at Utah State 79
Five-Year F/+ Rk 113
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 110
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -7 / -3.5
TO Luck/Game -1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (5, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.7

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 111 115 115 116
RUSHING 102 114 114 111
PASSING 88 114 100 116
Standard Downs 117 113 118
Passing Downs 109 102 111
Redzone 81 54 92
Q1 Rk 110 1st Down Rk 120
Q2 Rk 117 2nd Down Rk 107
Q3 Rk 114 3rd Down Rk 110
Q4 Rk 108
Adj. Line Yards Rk 103
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 62

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Brian Reader 192 354 1,974 54.2% 10 12 21 5.6% 4.9
Taylor Davis 6'3, 233 Jr. ** (5.1) 28 62 234 45.2% 1 4 7 10.1% 2.8
Dominique Blackman 6'5, 274 Jr. *** (5.5)






Austin DeCoud 6'3, 220 Fr. ** (5.4)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Princeton McCarty RB 149 705 4.7 1.9 0 -9.2
Kama Bailey RB 99 441 4.5 1.7 0 -5.5
Ryan Bass RB 5'10, 206 Sr. ** (5.2) 44 175 4.0 1.2 0 -3.1
Brian Reader QB 27 106 3.9 1.0 0 -5.8
Troy Vital RB 20 40 2.0 0.3 0 -2.9

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Mike Scott WR-Z 5'11, 178 Sr. NR 94 55 691 58.5% 23.9% 58.5% 6.0
Armauni Johnson WR 59 23 311 39.0% 15.0% 61.0% 0.8
Kama Bailey RB 48 32 234 66.7% 12.2% 60.4% 4.5
Justin Veltung SLOT 5'11, 182 Sr. ** (5.0) 45 20 231 44.4% 11.4% 53.3% 2.0
Michael LaGrone TE 6'2, 246 Jr. ** (5.1) 36 21 262 58.3% 9.1% 44.4% 6.3
Taylor Elmo TE 6'4, 255 Jr. ** (5.2) 30 17 162 56.7% 7.6% 43.3% 4.5
Princeton McCarty RB 25 20 109 80.0% 6.3% 44.0% 4.5
Daniel Micheletti WR 6'3, 206 Jr. NR 16 7 83 43.8% 4.1% 62.5% 2.3
Ken McRoyal^ SLOT


10 6 35 60.0% 2.5% 80.0% 2.6
Landon Weaver WR 8 4 24 50.0% 2.0% 87.5% 1.4

^ McRoyal tragically passed away in May.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Matt Cleveland LT 24 career starts, 2011 2nd All-AC
Tyrone Novikoff RT 25 career starts
Sam Tupua LG 16 career starts
Mike Marboe C 6'2, 303 So. *** (5.5) 11 career starts
A.J. Jones LG 6'1, 282 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 career starts
Jordan Johnson RG 6'6, 302 Jr. *** (5.6) 7 career starts
Tyler Brooks LG 6 career starts
Guy Reynolds, Jr. RG 6'2, 311 Jr. ** (5.1) 1 career start
Bilal Liggins RG 6'2, 288 Sr. ** (5.0) 1 career start
Spencer Beale LT 6'5, 314 So. ** (5.2)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 101 94 90 97
RUSHING 65 69 73 74
PASSING 111 102 99 102
Standard Downs 96 76 100
Passing Downs 54 37 62
Redzone 95 106 88
Q1 Rk 103 1st Down Rk 100
Q2 Rk 99 2nd Down Rk 72
Q3 Rk 48 3rd Down Rk 40
Q4 Rk 13
Adj. Line Yards Rk 66
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 95

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
QuayShawne Buckley DT 6'4, 284 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 25.0 3.5% 5 1
Mike Cosgrove DT 11 19.0 2.7% 1 1 1 1
Benson Mayowa DE 6'3, 250 Sr. NR 10 14.5 2.0% 4.5 3 2 2 1
Charles Smith Jr. DE 12 11.5 1.6% 3 1 1 2
Andre Ferguson DE 11 11.0 1.5% 1.5 1 1 1
Dontae Scott DT 6'4, 295 So. *** (5.5) 9 11.0 1.5% 1.5
Maxx Forde DE 6'5, 260 So. *** (5.5) 12 10.0 1.4% 0.5 1
Karel Kearney NT 6'2, 274 So. ** (5.2) 9 9.0 1.3% 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tre'Shawn Robinson MLB 12 88.0 12.4% 7.5 2 2 4
Robert Siavii (2010) LB 6'1, 201 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 67.0 9.6% 12 3.5
3 4 2
Conrad Scheidt WLB 6'1, 231 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 67.5 9.5% 8 2 1 3
Korey Toomer SLB 12 53.0 7.4% 10.5 4 1 4 1
Homer Mauga SLB 12 36.0 5.1% 6.5 1 4
John McKinley LB 11 16.0 2.2%
Su'a Tuala MLB 6'0, 230 Sr. ** (5.2) 8 7.5 1.1% 2 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Gary Walker FS 6'0, 192 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 88.0 12.4% 4 1 3 1
Quin Ashley SS 12 60.0 8.4% 2 3 1
Aaron Grymes CB 5'11, 176 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 48.5 6.8% 1 7 1 2
Matthew Harvey CB 12 31.5 4.4% 3 1 5 1
Thaad Thompson (2010) S 6'3, 218 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 21.5 3.1%





Trey Williams SS 6'2, 201 Jr. ** (4.9) 10 21.5 3.0% 0.5 1
Tracy Carter CB 5'11, 165 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 19.5 2.7% 1 1 1
Bradley Njoku FS 6'1, 192 So. ** (5.2) 12 16.0 2.2% 1 1
Dion Bass CB 5'9, 171 So. ** (5.3) 10 11.0 1.5% 0.5
Jayshawn Jordan DB 5'10, 170 Fr. *** (5.5) 0.0 0.0%
Ma'ne Manaea DB 5'11, 175 Fr. *** (5.5) 0.0 0.0%

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Bobby Cowan 6'5, 232 Sr. 88 46.4 10 27 17 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Trey Farquhar 6'1, 182 Sr. 47 66.6 2 4.3%
Bobby Cowan 6'5, 232 Sr. 2 55.0 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Trey Farquhar 6'1, 182 Sr. 23-24 5-5 100.0% 5-10 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Justin Veltung KR 5'11, 182 Sr. 23 21.5 0
Princeton McCarty KR 19 22.8 1
Justin Veltung PR 5'11, 182 Sr. 11 16.8 2
Kama Bailey 5 11.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 80
Net Punting 4
Net Kickoffs 102
Touchback Pct 107
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 87
Punt Returns Avg 8

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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