2012 Florida Atlantic Owls Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 118
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Florida 3-41 L 15.8 - 32.6 L
10-Sep at Michigan State 0-44 L 14.8 - 29.5 L
24-Sep at Auburn 14-30 L 21.7 - 27.7 L
1-Oct at UL-Lafayette 34-37 L 26.2 - 30.1 L
8-Oct at North Texas 17-31 L 20.5 - 22.9 L
15-Oct Western Kentucky 0-20 L 15.0 - 28.1 L
22-Oct Middle Tennessee 14-38 L 17.1 - 31.4 L
5-Nov Arkansas State 21-39 L 28.7 - 28.6 W
12-Nov at Florida International 7-41 L 22.7 - 31.9 L
19-Nov at Troy 7-34 L 20.9 - 29.8 L
26-Nov UAB 38-35 W 26.0 - 33.1 L
3-Dec UL-Monroe 0-26 L 15.5 - 30.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 12.9 119 34.7 103
Adj. Points Per Game 20.4 120 29.7 93

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
31-Aug Wagner NR
8-Sep at Middle Tennessee 113
15-Sep at Georgia 7
22-Sep at Alabama 1
29-Sep North Texas 106
13-Oct at UL-Monroe 90
20-Oct at South Alabama 120
27-Oct Troy 100
3-Nov at Navy 76
10-Nov at Western Kentucky 88
16-Nov Florida International 56
1-Dec UL-Lafayette 99
Five-Year F/+ Rk 108
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 97
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -14.7
TO Luck/Game 2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +8.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 120 120 119 120
RUSHING 108 117 115 116
PASSING 111 120 116 120
Standard Downs 120 119 120
Passing Downs 116 115 116
Redzone 117 120 114
Q1 Rk 120 1st Down Rk 119
Q2 Rk 91 2nd Down Rk 118
Q3 Rk 120 3rd Down Rk 118
Q4 Rk 105
Adj. Line Yards Rk 105
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 109

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Graham Wilbert 6'6, 225 Sr. ** (5.2) 154 294 1,459 52.4% 7 15 18 5.8% 4.2
David Kool 6'7, 210 Sr. ** (5.3) 19 35 168 54.3% 1 0 10 22.2% 2.4
Stephen Curtis 6'2, 225 So. *** (5.5) 10 21 90 47.6% 0 0 5 19.2% 1.4

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Alfred Morris RB 234 1,187 5.1 2.0 9 -5.3
Xavier Stinson RB 5'9, 229 Sr. ** (4.9) 35 88 2.5 0.7 0 -9.7
Willie Floyd RB 17 40 2.4 1.2 0 -4.0
Stephen Curtis QB 6'2, 225 So. *** (5.5) 13 46 3.5 1.5 1 -2.6
Graham Wilbert QB 6'6, 225 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 20 1.5 0.7 0 -4.3
Damian Fortner RB 5'10, 195 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 25 2.1 0.6 0 -2.8

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
DeAndre Richardson WR 6'2, 180 Jr. ** (5.2) 71 32 269 45.1% 21.7% 66.2% 1.6
Darian Williams TE 48 26 291 54.2% 14.7% 50.0% 4.6
Nexon Dorvilus TE 6'4, 225 So. ** (5.4) 38 21 238 55.3% 11.6% 52.6% 4.6
Xavier Stinson RB 5'9, 229 Sr. ** (4.9) 31 21 135 67.7% 9.5% 48.4% 3.8
Marcus Cunningham WR 6'0, 175 So. ** (5.3) 30 18 257 60.0% 9.2% 70.0% 7.3
Willie Floyd RB 28 14 66 50.0% 8.6% 46.4% 1.2
William Dukes WR 6'4, 190 So. ** (5.4) 20 12 75 60.0% 6.1% 40.0% 2.6
Derek Moise WR 6'3, 180 So. ** (5.3) 19 10 119 52.6% 5.8% 57.9% 4.6
Alfred Morris RB 19 15 139 78.9% 5.8% 52.6% 8.5
Paul Moore WR 5'9, 161 Sr. NR 7 4 45 57.1% 2.1% 42.9% 6.2
Terrell Mitchell TE 6'6, 260 Jr. *** (5.6)






Anthony Russell TE 6'5, 255 Fr. *** (5.5)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Andy Czuprynski LG 6'5, 270 Jr. NR 24 career starts
Sam McRoy LT 23 career starts
Chris Newbold RG 23 career starts
Jimmie Colley C 6'3, 295 Jr. ** (5.1) 19 career starts
Max Karrick RT 16 career starts
Joe Bailey RT 6'5, 290 Sr. NR 10 career starts
Jordan Sessa C 6'5, 280 Sr. ** (4.9) 3 career starts
Erik Hansen RG 6'5, 280 Sr. ** (4.9) 1 career start
Troy Niblack LT 6'6, 280 Sr. ** (5.4)
DeAndre Williams LG 6'5, 290 Jr. ** (5.0)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 69 104 101 102
RUSHING 77 106 95 107
PASSING 59 94 103 84
Standard Downs 50 42 66
Passing Downs 120 120 119
Redzone 96 92 97
Q1 Rk 93 1st Down Rk 38
Q2 Rk 100 2nd Down Rk 112
Q3 Rk 58 3rd Down Rk 103
Q4 Rk 97
Adj. Line Yards Rk 92
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 66

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Cory Henry DE 6'3, 238 Jr. *** (5.6) 10 33.0 4.5% 6.5 1.5 1
Kevin Cyrille DE 12 28.0 3.8% 8.5 4.5 1 2
Jarvis Givens NT 12 23.5 3.2% 6 2
Jimmy Jean DT 6'2, 290 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 20.5 2.8% 2.5
David Baptiste NT 5'11, 250 Jr. NR 12 16.0 2.2% 2 1 1
Jamere Johnson DE 10 15.0 2.1% 1.5 1 1
Brandin Bryant DE 6'2, 260 Jr. *** (5.5)
Trevon Coley DE 6'2, 225 Fr. *** (5.5)

Shalom Ogbonda DE 6'4, 245 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
David Hinds MLB 6'2, 235 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 83.5 11.5% 8.5 2 1
Randell Johnson OLB 6'4, 230 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 76.0 10.4% 14.5 5 3 4
Andrae Kirk ILB 6'2, 225 So. ** (5.2) 12 64.5 8.9% 2 2
Martin Wright OLB 6'4, 250 Sr. NR 11 27.5 3.8% 3 1 1
Toney Moore LB 6'2, 210 Jr. *** (5.5) 4 12.0 1.6% 1.5 1
Blake Nehls ILB


6 6.5 0.9% 1
Adarius Glanton LB 6'1, 215 Jr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Marcus Bartels FS


12 62.5 8.6% 4 2 2 1 2
Keith Reaser CB 6'0, 185 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 50.5 6.9% 2.5 2 7
Demetrius Williamson FS 6'0, 195 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 48.0 6.6% 3.5 1 5
Treon Howard CB 5'11, 175 Jr. ** (5.3) 11 39.0 5.4% 1.5 2 1 1 1
Curtis Cross CB 11 36.5 5.0% 3 2
Brentley Harstad SS 6'1, 189 Sr. ** (5.0) 6 14.5 2.0% 1 1 1
D.J. Frye-Smith CB 5'11, 175 So. ** (5.4) 12 8.5 1.2%
Christian Milstead DB 5'10, 170 So. NR 11 7.5 1.0% 1
Brian Sirmans FS


3 5.0 0.7% 1
Tony Grimes DB 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.6)
Adrian Burton DB 5'10, 175 Fr. *** (5.6)









Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Mickey Groody

75 42.0 5 23 14 49.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Marcelo Bonani 5'11, 160 So. 28 56.9 2 7.1%
Vinny Zaccario 5'11, 180 Sr. 7 43.9 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Vinny Zaccario 5'11, 180 Sr. 18-18 6-9 66.7% 1-2 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Willie Floyd KR 32 21.4 0
D.J. Frye-Smith KR 5'11, 175 So. 23 20.9 0
Travis Jones PR 5'11, 190 Jr. 8 7.1 0
Blake Bierman PR 5'10, 180 So. 8 0.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 116
Net Punting 111
Net Kickoffs 117
Touchback Pct 92
Field Goal Pct 86
Kick Returns Avg 89
Punt Returns Avg 109

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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