2012 Wisconsin Badgers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 6
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep UNLV 51-17 W 37.9 - 31.8 W
10-Sep Oregon State 35-0 W 27.1 - 21.4 W
17-Sep vs. Northern Illinois 49-7 W 38.0 - 21.1 W
24-Sep South Dakota 59-10 W 35.0 - 24.2 W
1-Oct Nebraska 48-17 W 39.0 - 27.8 W
15-Oct Indiana 59-7 W 32.2 - 23.5 W
22-Oct at Michigan State 31-37 L 42.3 - 30.2 W
29-Oct at Ohio State 29-33 L 30.4 - 27.7 W
5-Nov Purdue 62-17 W 39.2 - 23.7 W
12-Nov at Minnesota 42-13 W 37.0 - 22.3 W
19-Nov at Illinois 28-17 W 34.4 - 29.0 W
26-Nov Penn State 45-7 W 40.7 - 23.3 W
3-Dec vs. Michigan State 42-39 W 40.6 - 32.8 W
2-Jan vs. Oregon 38-45 L 34.8 - 31.3 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 44.1 6 19.0 13
Adj. Points Per Game 36.3 1 26.4 43

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Northern Iowa NR
8-Sep at Oregon State 74
15-Sep Utah State 79
22-Sep UTEP 104
29-Sep at Nebraska 24
6-Oct Illinois 51
13-Oct at Purdue 70
20-Oct Minnesota 96
27-Oct Michigan State 19
10-Nov at Indiana 98
17-Nov Ohio State 20
24-Nov at Penn State 37
Five-Year F/+ Rk 14
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 41
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +16 / +17.7
TO Luck/Game -0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (4, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** -6.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 14 1 1 1
RUSHING 11 2 7 2
PASSING 61 1 1 2
Standard Downs 2 2 2
Passing Downs 1 1 3
Redzone 1 1 1
Q1 Rk 1 1st Down Rk 2
Q2 Rk 1 2nd Down Rk 1
Q3 Rk 6 3rd Down Rk 3
Q4 Rk 7
Adj. Line Yards Rk 4
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 63

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Russell Wilson 225 309 3,175 72.8% 33 4 23 6.9% 9.1
Danny O'Brien^ 6'3, 215 Jr. *** (5.5) 150 266 1,648 56.4% 7 10 7 2.6% 5.8
Joe Brennan 6'3, 213 So. *** (5.5) 6 15 48 40.0% 0 1 3 16.7% 1.0
Joel Stave 6'5, 223 So. ** (5.4)








Bart Houston 6'4, 201 Fr. *** (5.7)








^ O'Brien is a Maryland transfer and eligible to play this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Montee Ball RB 5'11, 212 Sr. **** (5.8) 307 1,923 6.3 2.5 33 +57.2
James White RB 5'10, 197 Jr. *** (5.7) 141 713 5.1 1.8 6 -0.9
Russell Wilson QB 56 483 8.6 4.1 6 +16.7
Jeffrey Lewis RB 6'2, 212 So. *** (5.6) 33 187 5.7 2.1 1 -0.8
Melvin Gordon RB 6'1, 205 RSFr. **** (5.8) 20 98 4.9 1.1 1 -0.3
Jared Abbrederis WR 6'2, 180 Jr. NR 11 62 5.6 2.4 0 +0.3
Vonte Jackson RB 6'0, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Nick Toon WR 89 64 926 71.9% 28.5% 68.5% 10.2
Jared Abbrederis WR 6'2, 180 Jr. NR 74 55 933 74.3% 23.7% 70.3% 13.9
Jacob Pedersen TE 6'4, 242 Jr. ** (5.2) 41 30 356 73.2% 13.1% 65.9% 8.6
Montee Ball RB 5'11, 212 Sr. **** (5.8) 34 24 306 70.6% 10.9% 41.2% 7.9
Jeff Duckworth WR 6'0, 212 Jr. *** (5.5) 24 15 230 62.5% 7.7% 29.2% 6.9
Bradie Ewing FB 20 20 246 100.0% 6.4% 70.0% 15.4
James White RB 5'10, 197 Jr. *** (5.7) 17 15 150 88.2% 5.4% 58.8% 10.3
Jake Byrne TE 4 1 14 25.0% 1.3% 75.0% 3.5
Manasseh Garner WR 6'2, 213 Jr. *** (5.5) 2 2 45 100.0% 0.6% 0.0% 22.5
Isaiah Williams WR 6'1, 194 Jr. *** (5.5)



Chase Hammond WR 6'5, 212 Jr. *** (5.5)



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kevin Zeitler G 36 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten
Josh Oglesby T 28 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten
Travis Frederick C 6'4, 328 Jr. *** (5.5 17 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten
Peter Konz G 30 career starts
Ricky Wagner T 6'6, 322 Sr. NR 24 career starts
Ryan Groy G 6'5, 322 Jr. *** (5.6) 7 career starts
Rob Havenstein T 6'8, 343 So. *** (5.6) 2 career starts
Casey Dehn G 6'6, 334 Jr. ** (5.4) 1 career start
Robert Burge G 6'7, 320 Sr. NR
Jake Current C
Kyle Costigan G 6'4, 305 Jr. ** (5.3)
Ray Ball G 6'7, 326 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Dan Voltz C 6'4, 288 Fr. **** (5.8)
Walker Williams OL 6'7, 320 Fr. *** (5.7)
Jake Meador OL 6'7, 305 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 15 66 74 68
RUSHING 60 70 56 82
PASSING 4 67 90 55
Standard Downs 78 70 83
Passing Downs 19 29 20
Redzone 48 69 37
Q1 Rk 75 1st Down Rk 79
Q2 Rk 97 2nd Down Rk 30
Q3 Rk 13 3rd Down Rk 56
Q4 Rk 43
Adj. Line Yards Rk 64
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 65

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Louis Nzegwu DE 14 27.0 3.7% 7 4.5 2 1 1
Brendan Kelly DE 6'6, 255 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 24.5 3.3% 5 3 1 2
Ethan Hemer DT 6'6, 305 Jr. NR 14 23.0 3.1% 1 1 1
Tyler Dippel DE 6'4, 255 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 19.0 2.6% 3 1
Beau Allen DT 6'3, 323 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 16.5 2.2% 5.5 4 1
Jordan Kohout DT 6'3, 292 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 15.0 2.0% 2.5 1
Patrick Butrym DT 14 14.0 1.9% 3.5 1 2 1
Pat Muldoon DE 6'3, 258 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 10.5 1.4% 0.5 3
David Gilbert DE 6'4, 250 Jr. **** (5.8) 4 7.0 0.9% 3.5 3 1
Warren Herring DE 6'3, 273 So. *** (5.5) 8 6.0 0.8% 1
Bryce Gilbert DT 6'1, 304 Jr. *** (5.6) 4 2.0 0.3%
Konrad Zagzebski DE 6'3, 258 So. *** (5.6) 5 1.5 0.2%

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mike Taylor WLB 6'2, 222 Sr. ** (5.4) 14 105.0 14.2% 9 2 2 3 3 2
Chris Borland MLB 5'11, 250 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 103.5 14.0% 19 2.5 2 5 5
Kevin Claxton SLB 13 32.5 4.4% 6.5 1
Conor O'Neill SLB 6'0, 225 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 22.0 3.0% 1.5 2 1
Ethan Armstrong SLB 6'2, 225 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 21.5 2.9% 2 1 1
Derek Landisch WLB 5'11, 226 So. *** (5.5) 14 13.5 1.8% 1 1
Marcus Trotter MLB 6'0, 222 So. *** (5.7) 5 3.0 0.4%
A.J. Fenton SLB 6'1, 219 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 0.5 0.1%
Derek Watt LB 6'2, 225 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Vince Biegel LB 6'3, 210 Fr. **** (5.9)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Aaron Henry FS 14 55.5 7.5% 3 1 4 4
Antonio Fenelus CB 14 42.0 5.7% 3 4 5
Shelton Johnson FS 6'0, 200 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 38.5 5.2% 6 4 4 1
Marcus Cromartie CB 6'1, 188 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 36.5 4.9% 0.5 3 1
Dezmen Southward SS 6'2, 210 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 25.5 3.5% 2 2
Peniel Jean CB 5'11, 190 So. *** (5.7) 14 20.5 2.8% 1 2
Devin Smith DB 5'11, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 2 6.5 0.9% 1
Devin Gaulden CB 5'10, 190 So. *** (5.5) 6 3.0 0.4%
Michael Trotter FS 6'0, 210 So. *** (5.7) 12 1.0 0.1%
Michael Caputo SS 6'1, 205 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Darius Hillary CB 5'11, 185 RSFr. *** (5.5)
D.J. Singleton DB 6'3, 200 Fr. *** (5.7)
Hugs Etienne DB 5'11, 175 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brad Norman 46 42.2 3 17 19 78.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Alec Lerner 61 62.4 7 11.5%
Philip Welch 41 61.9 10 24.4%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Philip Welch 54-55 3-4 75.0% 2-2 100.0%
Kyle French 6'1, 193 So. 26-27 3-3 100.0% 0-2 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jared Abbrederis KR 6'2, 180 Jr. 28 24.6 0
James White KR 5'10, 197 Jr. 15 21.0 0
Kenzel Doe KR 5'8, 170 So. 3 13.7 0
Jared Abbrederis PR 6'2, 180 Jr. 20 15.8 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 40
Net Punting 64
Net Kickoffs 79
Touchback Pct 52
Field Goal Pct 45
Kick Returns Avg 57
Punt Returns Avg 6

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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