2012 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 66
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep at Syracuse 29-36 L 24.6 - 30.7 L
10-Sep N.C. State 34-27 W 31.1 - 30.7 W
17-Sep Gardner-Webb 48-5 W 24.7 - 10.6 W
1-Oct at Boston College 27-19 W 27.3 - 26.7 W
8-Oct Florida State 35-30 W 32.7 - 26.9 W
15-Oct Virginia Tech 17-38 L 25.8 - 30.6 L
22-Oct at Duke 24-23 W 25.8 - 27.3 L
29-Oct at North Carolina 24-49 L 27.8 - 31.1 L
5-Nov Notre Dame 17-24 L 28.8 - 28.1 W
12-Nov at Clemson 28-31 L 28.2 - 29.7 L
19-Nov Maryland 31-10 W 28.7 - 27.9 W
26-Nov Vanderbilt 7-41 L 25.2 - 32.9 L
30-Dec vs. Mississippi State 17-23 L 24.2 - 28.3 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.0 68 27.4 65
Adj. Points Per Game 27.3 61 27.8 58

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Liberty NR
8-Sep North Carolina 33
15-Sep at Florida State 7
22-Sep Army 104
29-Sep Duke 73
6-Oct at Maryland 72
20-Oct at Virginia 52
25-Oct Clemson 21
3-Nov Boston College 45
10-Nov at N.C. State 53
17-Nov at Notre Dame 14
24-Nov Vanderbilt 50
Five-Year F/+ Rk 57
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 90
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +9 / +7.7
TO Luck/Game 0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (3, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 78 57 81 44
RUSHING 99 78 91 68
PASSING 39 47 63 35
Standard Downs 69 89 57
Passing Downs 39 57 33
Redzone 79 82 74
Q1 Rk 47 1st Down Rk 55
Q2 Rk 66 2nd Down Rk 58
Q3 Rk 34 3rd Down Rk 95
Q4 Rk 101
Adj. Line Yards Rk 115
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 85

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tanner Price 6'2, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 253 422 3,017 60.0% 20 6 34 7.5% 6.1
Ted Stachitas


18 26 152 69.2% 0 1 1 3.7% 5.4
Brendan Cross 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.5)






Tyler Cameron 6'3, 210 Fr. *** (5.7)






Steve Donatell 6'5, 195 Jr. *** (5.6)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Brandon Pendergrass TB 188 823 4.4 1.7 9 +0.1
Josh Harris TB 5'11, 210 Jr. ** (5.2) 101 432 4.3 1.6 3 -3.1
Tanner Price QB 6'2, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 44 190 4.3 1.8 1 -2.8
Orville Reynolds TB 5'8, 175 So. *** (5.6) 28 109 3.9 1.6 0 -3.5
Tommy Bohanon FB 6'2, 245 Sr. *** (5.5) 15 31 2.1 0.2 2 +0.8
Chris Givens WR 14 77 5.5 2.0 0 -0.2

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Chris Givens WR 135 83 1,330 61.5% 31.2% 57.0% 8.8
Michael Campanaro FL 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 106 73 833 68.9% 24.5% 54.7% 7.8
Danny Dembry FL 54 36 423 66.7% 12.5% 63.0% 7.3
Terence Davis WR 6'1, 195 Sr. ** (5.3) 43 20 269 46.5% 9.9% 48.8% 3.2
Brandon Pendergrass RB 25 19 116 76.0% 5.8% 40.0% 4.8
Cameron Ford TE 20 12 99 60.0% 4.6% 80.0% 3.3
Tommy Bohanon FB 6'2, 245 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 9 56 81.8% 2.5% 45.5% 5.1
Andrew Parker TE 11 6 46 54.5% 2.5% 54.5% 3.1
Josh Harris RB 5'11, 210 Jr. ** (5.2) 8 5 22 62.5% 1.8% 62.5% 1.5
Lovell Jackson FL 5'10, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 7 4 41 57.1% 1.6% 42.9% 3.1
Quan Rucker WR 6'0, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 1 1 9 100.0% 0.2% 100.0% 9.0
Spencer Bishop TE 6'2, 240 Jr. NR
Neil Basford TE 6'5, 250 So. *** (5.5)
Sherman Ragland III WR 6'2, 195 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Jared Crump WR 6'3, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)
Zach Gordon TE 6'5, 245 Fr. *** (5.6)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Joe Looney LG 39 career starts, 2011 2nd All-ACC
Doug Weaver RT 25 career starts
Michael Hoag RG 21 career starts
Dennis Godfrey LT 20 career starts
Garrick Williams C 6'4, 310 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 career starts
Steven Chase LT 6'7, 305 Jr. ** (4.9) 3 career starts
Chance Raines C 2 career starts
Antonio Ford LG 6'3, 315 So. *** (5.6)
Colin Summers RT 6'5, 320 So. *** (5.5)
Daniel Blitch RG 6'6, 310 So. ** (5.4)
Gabe Irby LG 6'4, 315 Sr. ** (5.3)
Whit Barnes C 6'4, 290 Jr. *** (5.5)
Devin Bolling RT 6'5, 300 Jr. ** (5.4)
Dylan Heartsill LT 6'5, 290 So. ** (5.2)
Hunter Goodwin LT 6'6, 310 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Dylan Intermann RG 6'5, 300 RSFr. NR

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 74 79 69 84
RUSHING 79 77 69 83
PASSING 69 77 60 82
Standard Downs 89 69 96
Passing Downs 51 46 56
Redzone 38 47 34
Q1 Rk 42 1st Down Rk 64
Q2 Rk 82 2nd Down Rk 81
Q3 Rk 50 3rd Down Rk 72
Q4 Rk 98
Adj. Line Yards Rk 65
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 118

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nikita Whitlock NG 5'11, 260 Jr. ** 13 45.0 6.0% 14 3.5 1 1 1
Zach Thompson DE 6'5, 255 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 28.5 3.8% 4 0.5 1 2
Tristan Dorty DE 12 25.0 3.4% 1.5 1
Gelo Orange DE 12 17.5 2.4% 2 0.5
Frank Souza NG 6'4, 280 Jr. *** (5.6) 9 4.0 0.5% 0.5
Kris Redding DE 6'4, 265 Jr. ** (5.2) 10 2.5 0.3% 0.5
Johnny Garcia DE 6'4, 250 So. ** (5.4)

Daniel Vogelsang NG 6'3, 255 So. ** (5.3)

Desmond Floyd DE 6'5, 255 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Shelldon Lewinson NG 6'2, 240 Fr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kyle Wilber ROB 13 59.0 7.9% 11.5 3.5 1 3 1
Justin Jackson OLB 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 48.0 6.5% 6.5 1 2 3
Mike Olson MLB 6'3, 230 Jr. ** (4.9) 12 44.5 6.0% 6 1 2
Scott Betros MLB 6'1, 240 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 42.5 5.7% 3.5 2 1
Joey Ehrmann OLB 6'4, 220 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 41.5 5.6% 3 0.5 1 1 1 1
Riley Haynes WLB 6'1, 220 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 40.0 5.4% 6 1 2
Zachary Allen ROB 6'2, 240 So. *** (5.7) 13 19.5 2.6% 1 0.5 1 1
Derricus Ellis OLB 6'2, 240 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 8.0 1.1% 3
Brandon Chubb MLB 6'1, 235 RSFr. ** (5.3) 0.0 0.0%
Dominique Gibson LB 5'10, 190 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Cyhl Quarles SS 13 76.5 10.3% 1 3 2
Merrill Noel CB 5'10, 180 So. *** (5.6) 13 60.0 8.1% 1 2 19 1
Josh Bush FS 13 50.0 6.7% 2 6 5
Kenny Okoro CB 6'0, 190 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 35.0 4.7% 1 9 1
A.J. Marshall FS 5'11, 180 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 27.5 3.7% 1 4
Duran Lowe SS 5'11, 210 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 25.0 3.4% 1 2
Daniel Mack FS 6'0, 200 Jr. *** (5.7) 11 10.0 1.3% 1
Joe LaBarbera SS 6'0, 205 So. NR 13 6.0 0.8% 1
Jason Green CB 5'11, 200 Jr. NR 13 5.5 0.7%
Desmond Cooper SS 6'2, 195 So. *** (5.6) 13 3.5 0.5% 1
Kevin Johnson CB 6'1, 175 So. ** (5.3)
Allen Ramsey CB 6'0, 190 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Alex Wulfeck 5'9, 175 Jr. 70 39.7 5 22 13 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jimmy Newman 6'2, 195 Sr. 71 63.9 13 18.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jimmy Newman 6'2, 195 Sr. 39-41 14-15 93.3% 3-5 60.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Lovell Jackson KR 5'10, 185 Sr. 33 21.2 0
Merrill Noel KR 5'10, 180 So. 13 17.9 0
Michael Campanaro PR 5'10, 190 Jr. 9 9.0 1
Lovell Jackson KR 5'10, 185 Sr. 9 3.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 79
Net Punting 71
Net Kickoffs 47
Touchback Pct 38
Field Goal Pct 34
Kick Returns Avg 103
Punt Returns Avg 81

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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