2012 Virginia Tech Hokies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 11-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 22
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Appalachian State 66-13 W 27.8 - 22.4 W
10-Sep at East Carolina 17-10 W 25.4 - 6.1 W
17-Sep Arkansas State 26-7 W 35.2 - 17.7 W
24-Sep at Marshall 30-10 W 30.5 - 21.1 W
1-Oct Clemson 3-23 L 20.4 - 25.8 L
8-Oct Miami 38-35 W 37.8 - 32.9 W
15-Oct at Wake Forest 38-17 W 32.2 - 24.4 W
22-Oct Boston College 30-14 W 31.0 - 27.8 W
29-Oct at Duke 14-10 W 25.0 - 21.1 W
10-Nov at Georgia Tech 37-26 W 33.0 - 26.1 W
17-Nov North Carolina 24-21 W 27.6 - 28.2 L
26-Nov at Virginia 38-0 W 31.0 - 16.7 W
3-Dec vs. Clemson 10-38 L 20.3 - 31.2 L
3-Jan vs. Michigan 20-23 L 26.5 - 19.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 27.9 57 17.6 7
Adj. Points Per Game 28.8 40 22.9 10

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
3-Sep Georgia Tech 30
8-Sep Austin Peay NR
15-Sep at Pittsburgh 38
22-Sep Bowling Green 82
29-Sep vs. Cincinnati 43
6-Oct at North Carolina 33
13-Oct Duke 73
20-Oct at Clemson 21
1-Nov at Miami 36
8-Nov Florida State 7
17-Nov at Boston College 45
24-Nov Virginia 52
Five-Year F/+ Rk 10
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 28
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +5 / +0.0
TO Luck/Game +1.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (3, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 35 49 49 48
RUSHING 28 51 65 42
PASSING 66 37 34 43
Standard Downs 53 58 53
Passing Downs 54 67 53
Redzone 87 90 84
Q1 Rk 75 1st Down Rk 76
Q2 Rk 54 2nd Down Rk 47
Q3 Rk 39 3rd Down Rk 36
Q4 Rk 35
Adj. Line Yards Rk 102
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 37

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Logan Thomas 6'6, 262 Jr. **** (6.0) 234 391 3,013 59.8% 19 10 20 4.9% 7.0
Mark Leal 6'0, 212 So. *** (5.6) 9 13 153 69.2% 2 0 0 0.0% 11.8

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
David Wilson TB 292 1,707 5.8 3.0 9 +13.7
Logan Thomas QB 6'6, 262 Jr. **** (6.0) 133 589 4.4 1.3 11 +7.0
Josh Oglesby TB 97 371 3.8 1.3 6 +0.8
Tony Gregory TB 6'0, 179 Jr. *** (5.7) 16 27 1.7 0.2 0 -4.0
Martin Scales TB 5'11, 226 Sr. NR




Michael Holmes TB 5'11, 208 RSFr. *** (5.5)





J.C. Coleman TB 5'7, 176 Fr. **** (5.9)





Trey Edmunds TB 6'2, 205 Fr. **** (5.8)




Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Jarrett Boykin WR 103 61 761 59.2% 26.6% 53.4% 6.2
Danny Coale WR 82 60 904 73.2% 21.2% 61.0% 11.6
Marcus Davis WR 6'4, 228 Sr. *** (5.7) 54 30 510 55.6% 14.0% 59.3% 7.4
D.J. Coles WR 6'3, 216 Sr. **** (5.9) 50 36 480 72.0% 12.9% 58.0% 9.6
Dyrell Roberts (2010^) WR 6'2, 188 Sr. **** (5.8) 35 21 303 60.0% 10.7% 74.3% 7.5
David Wilson TB 34 22 129 64.7% 8.8% 44.1% 4.3
Chris Drager TE 26 15 201 57.7% 6.7% 57.7% 6.3
Josh Oglesby TB 8 6 31 75.0% 2.1% 87.5% 5.7
Corey Fuller WR 6'2, 191 Sr. NR 7 2 19 28.6% 1.8% 42.9% 1.2
Randall Dunn TE 6'2, 244 Sr. *** (5.5) 7 2 10 28.6% 1.8% 71.4% 0.2
Eric Martin TE 6'2, 264 Sr. ** (5.4) 3 3 22 100.0% 0.8% 100.0% 7.3
Ryan Malleck TE 6'4, 250 So. *** (5.5)
Demitri Knowles WR 6'0, 174 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Joel Caleb WR 6'2, 201 Fr. **** (5.9)

^ Roberts barely played in 2011 because of injury.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Blake DeChristopher RT 51 career starts; 2011 1st All-ACC
Jaymes Brooks RG 42 career starts; 2011 2nd All-ACC
Andrew Lanier LT 29 career starts
Greg Nosal LG 29 career starts
Andrew Miller C 6'4, 300 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 career starts
Michael Via RT 6'7, 283 Sr. *** (5.7) 3 career starts
Nick Becton LT 6'6, 328 Sr. *** (5.7)
Courtney Prince LG
Brent Benedict RG 6'5, 311 So. **** (5.9)
Vinston Painter RT 6'6, 304 Sr. **** (5.9)
David Wang LG 6'1, 286 Jr. *** (5.7)
Laurence Gibson RG 6'6, 312 So. **** (6.0)
Mark Shuman LT 6'7, 322 So. **** (5.8)
Matt Arkema LG 6'3, 285 So. *** (5.7)
Caleb Farris C 6'3, 310 So. *** (5.7)
Jake Goins RT 6'5, 291 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 10 13 7 21
RUSHING 14 27 24 33
PASSING 31 9 3 15
Standard Downs 23 10 38
Passing Downs 4 3 6
Redzone 6 8 4
Q1 Rk 14 1st Down Rk 27
Q2 Rk 8 2nd Down Rk 10
Q3 Rk 33 3rd Down Rk 9
Q4 Rk 26
Adj. Line Yards Rk 37
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 4

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
J.R. Collins DE 6'2, 252 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 39.5 5.9% 9.5 6 1
Derrick Hopkins DT 6'0, 305 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 38.5 5.8% 5 3 1 1 1
James Gayle DE 6'4, 250 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 30.0 4.5% 12.5 7
Tyrel Wilson DE 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 21.5 3.2% 3 2.5
Luther Maddy DT 6'1, 288 So. ** (5.4) 13 14.5 2.2% 2 1 1
Zack McCray DE 6'5, 245 So. **** (5.9) 14 10.5 1.6% 1
Corey Marshall DT 6'1, 250 So. **** (5.8) 14 10.0 1.5% 3 3
Antoine Hopkins DT 6'1, 318 Sr. *** (5.7) 6 5.0 0.7% 0.5 2
Isaiah Hamlette DT 13 4.5 0.7% 2 1
Kris Harley DT 6'0, 283 RSFr. **** (5.8) 0.0 0.0%

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tariq Edwards ILB 6'2, 232 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 53.0 7.9% 11.5 3.5 2 2 1
Bruce Taylor ILB 6'2, 253 Sr. **** (5.8) 8 37.0 5.5% 7 5
Jack Tyler ILB 5'11, 230 Jr. NR 14 31.0 4.6% 2.5 1.5 1
Alonzo Tweedy OLB 6'2, 189 Sr. ** (5.3) 11 17.0 2.5% 4 1
Barquell Rivers ILB 12 12.0 1.8% 0.5 1
Wiley Brown OLB 5'10, 207 Sr. NR 14 9.5 1.4%
Chase Williams ILB 6'1, 224 So. *** (5.7) 14 8.0 1.2%
Jeron Gouveia-Winslow OLB 6'2, 212 Sr. *** (5.5) 6 6.5 1.0% 1 0.5 1 1
Nick Dew OLB 14 5.0 0.7%
Ronny Vandyke OLB 6'3, 215 RSFr. **** (5.8) 0.0 0.0%




Ken Edanem LB 6'3, 226 Fr. **** (5.8)
Deon Clarke LB 6'2, 205 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Antone Exum CB 6'0, 219 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 66.0 9.9% 5 1.5 1 10 2 1
Eddie Whitley ROV 14 61.5 9.2% 1 2 4 1
Kyle Fuller CB 6'0, 181 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 55.5 8.3% 14.5 4.5 2 7 1 1
Jayron Hosley CB 13 46.0 6.9% 1 3 12 2 1
Cris Hill CB 14 25.0 3.7% 1 1 7
Detrick Bonner FS 6'0, 186 So. *** (5.5) 13 22.0 3.3% 3.5 1 4 1
Kyshoen Jarrett ROV 5'10, 188 So. **** (5.8) 14 5.5 0.8%
Boye Aromire FS 6'0, 196 So. *** (5.7) 10 3.5 0.5%
James Hopper FS 14 1.5 0.2% 1
Michael Cole ROV 6'1, 200 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Donaldven Manning CB 5'9, 155 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Michael Branthover 5'8, 187 So. 25 36.6 3 3 7 40.0%
Scott Demier 23 33.1 2 5 4 39.1%
Danny Coale 13 43.5 1 1 3 30.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Justin Myer 79 66 31 39.2%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Cody Journell 5'11, 178 Jr. 43-44 11-13 84.6% 3-4 75.0%
Justin Myer 0-0 3-4 75.0% 1-1 100.0%
Tyler Weiss 2-2 0-1 0.0% 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
David Wilson KR 22 18.9 0
Tony Gregory KR 6'0, 179 Jr. 15 19.3 0
Jayron Hosley PR 18 12.7 0
Danny Coale PR 8 6.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 68
Net Punting 108
Net Kickoffs 13
Touchback Pct 5
Field Goal Pct 50
Kick Returns Avg 93
Punt Returns Avg 30

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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