2012 Virginia Cavaliers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 65
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep William & Mary 40-3 W 25.4 - 5.8 W
10-Sep at Indiana 34-31 W 22.7 - 30.6 L
17-Sep at North Carolina 17-28 L 27.8 - 28.8 L
24-Sep Southern Miss 24-30 L 28.3 - 24.9 W
1-Oct Idaho 21-20 W 25.8 - 25.4 W
15-Oct Georgia Tech 24-21 W 32.8 - 22.9 W
22-Oct N.C. State 14-28 L 19.5 - 24.9 L
27-Oct at Miami 28-21 W 30.1 - 30.9 L
5-Nov at Maryland 31-13 W 27.3 - 21.9 W
12-Nov Duke 31-21 W 24.7 - 27.8 L
19-Nov at Florida State 14-13 W 32.1 - 26.1 W
26-Nov Virginia Tech 0-38 L 20.5 - 28.2 L
31-Dec vs. Auburn 24-43 L 28.2 - 32.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 23.2 86 23.8 46
Adj. Points Per Game 26.6 79 25.4 27

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Richmond NR
8-Sep Penn State 32
15-Sep at Georgia Tech 30
22-Sep at TCU 12
29-Sep Louisiana Tech 61
6-Oct at Duke 73
13-Oct Maryland 72
20-Oct Wake Forest 81
3-Nov at N.C. State 53
10-Nov Miami 36
15-Nov North Carolina 33
24-Nov at Virginia Tech 18
Five-Year F/+ Rk 62
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 24
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -7 / -4.3
TO Luck/Game -1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +2.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 46 76 77 72
RUSHING 53 81 92 71
PASSING 56 70 62 76
Standard Downs 86 92 81
Passing Downs 76 47 87
Redzone 90 94 83
Q1 Rk 59 1st Down Rk 80
Q2 Rk 100 2nd Down Rk 73
Q3 Rk 46 3rd Down Rk 86
Q4 Rk 107
Adj. Line Yards Rk 41
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 20

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Michael Rocco 6'3, 225 Jr. ** (5.3) 222 366 2,671 60.7% 13 12 14 3.7% 6.7
David Watford 6'1, 190 So. *** (5.5) 30 74 346 40.5% 3 4 2 2.6% 4.5
Phillip Sims^ 6'2, 211 So. **** (5.9) 18 28 163 64.3% 0 2 4 12.5% 4.1
Greyson Lambert 6'5, 215 Fr. *** (5.7)






^ Sims is an Alabama transfer and is eligible to play immediately.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Perry Jones RB 5'8, 185 Sr. ** (5.1) 184 915 5.0 1.7 5 -8.4
Kevin Parks RB 5'8, 195 So. *** (5.7) 152 709 4.7 1.6 9 +5.1
Clifton Richardson RB 6'0, 215 So. **** (5.8) 72 366 5.1 1.6 2 -0.2
Michael Rocco QB 6'3, 225 Jr. ** (5.3) 26 133 5.1 1.5 2 +1.8
David Watford QB 6'1, 190 So. *** (5.5) 19 49 2.6 1.1 0 -4.6
Khalek Shepherd RB 5'8, 185 So. *** (5.5) 5 16 3.2 0.5 0 -1.2

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Kris Burd WR 98 66 913 67.3% 23.4% 58.2% 9.0
Perry Jones RB 5'8, 185 Sr. ** (5.1) 67 48 506 71.6% 16.0% 52.2% 7.9
Tim Smith WR 6'0, 185 Jr. **** (5.8) 62 33 565 53.2% 14.8% 58.1% 6.8
Darius Jennings WR 5'11, 165 So. **** (5.8) 46 20 238 43.5% 11.0% 50.0% 0.9
Matt Snyder WR 37 20 225 54.1% 8.9% 59.5% 4.6
Max Milien FB 33 22 264 66.7% 7.9% 66.7% 7.3
Paul Freedman TE 6'6, 260 Sr. *** (5.6) 17 11 112 64.7% 4.1% 58.8% 6.1
Kevin Parks RB 5'8, 195 So. *** (5.7) 15 11 82 73.3% 3.6% 60.0% 5.3
Dominique Terrell WR 5'11, 170 So. **** (5.8) 15 8 59 53.3% 3.6% 73.3% 3.9
Ray Keys WR 10 5 70 50.0% 2.4% 40.0% 7.4
Jeremiah Mathis TE 6'3, 245 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 6 25 85.7% 1.7% 71.4% 3.7
Colter Phillips TE 6'6, 245 Sr. ** (5.3) 7 3 15 42.9% 1.7% 85.7% 0.8
Miles Gooch WR 6'3, 220 So. *** (5.5)
Canaan Severin WR 6'3, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Anthony Cooper WR 6'0, 187 Fr. *** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Austin Pasztor LG 45 career starts, 2011 1st All-ACC
Oday Aboushi LT 6'6, 310 Sr. **** (5.8) 25 career starts, 2011 2nd All-ACC
Anthony Mihota C 25 career starts
Morgan Moses RT 6'6, 335 Jr. **** (6.0) 20 career starts
Landon Bradley LT 18 career starts
Luke Bowanko RG 6'6, 295 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 career starts
Matt Mihalik LG 6'7, 310 Sr. *** (5.6)
Sean Cascarano RT 6'6, 280 Jr. *** (5.7)
Kelby Johnson LT 6'7, 300 So. *** (5.5)
Cody Wallace C 6'4, 285 So. *** (5.5)
Conner Davis RG 6'5, 305 So. *** (5.5)
Sean Karl OL 6'6, 284 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 38 40 27 58
RUSHING 48 40 28 48
PASSING 45 52 28 65
Standard Downs 21 8 36
Passing Downs 65 61 69
Redzone 19 11 26
Q1 Rk 19 1st Down Rk 36
Q2 Rk 106 2nd Down Rk 35
Q3 Rk 40 3rd Down Rk 32
Q4 Rk 5
Adj. Line Yards Rk 25
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 89

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Matt Conrath DT 13 48.0 7.1% 12 3 3 2
Jake Snyder DE 6'4, 275 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 25.5 3.8% 2 1 2 1 1
Nick Jenkins DT 13 23.5 3.5% 5 1.5 1
Will Hill DT 6'4, 280 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 23.5 3.5% 7 1 2 1
Cam Johnson DE 12 22.5 3.3% 11 4 1 2 1
Bill Schautz DE 6'4, 250 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 20.5 3.0% 6.5 2 2 2 2
Brent Urban DE 6'7, 280 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 10.5 1.6% 2.5
Justin Renfrow DT 6'6, 300 Jr. *** (5.5) 5 2.5 0.4% 1.5 1
Thompson Brown DE 11 2.0 0.3% 0.5
Chris Brathwaite DT 6'1, 270 So. *** (5.5) 5 1.0 0.1%
David Dean DT 6'1, 285 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Rob Burns DE 6'7, 230 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Eli Harold DE 6'4, 215 Fr. **** (6.0)
Michael Moore DE 6'4, 255 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Steve Greer MLB 6'2, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 73.0 10.8% 6 2 4 1
LaRoy Reynolds WLB 6'2, 230 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 69.0 10.2% 8 1 1
Aaron Taliaferro SLB 13 40.0 5.9% 6 1 2
Ausar Walcott SLB 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 22.0 3.2% 2.5 1 1
Henry Coley MLB 6'2, 235 So. *** (5.5) 5 11.5 1.7% 2.5 1
Daquan Romero SLB 6'1, 230 So. *** (5.6) 10 8.5 1.3% 1 1
Tucker Windle SLB 6'3, 225 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 2.5 0.4%
D.J. Hill WLB 6'0, 210 So. *** (5.6) 11 1.0 0.1%
Caleb Taylor MLB 6'0, 245 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Darius Lee WLB 6'1, 200 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Kwontie Moore LB 6'2, 243 Fr. **** (5.9)
Demeitre Brim LB 6'3, 215 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Demetrious Nicholson CB 5'11, 165 So. **** (5.8) 13 51.5 7.6% 2 2 8 1
Rodney McLeod SS 13 45.5 6.7% 2.5 4 7
Chase Minnifield CB 12 41.5 6.1% 7 1.5 3 8
Corey Mosley FS 12 39.0 5.8% 0.5 1 4
Dom Joseph CB 12 22.0 3.2% 2 1 3 1 1
Anthony Harris SS 6'1, 180 So. *** (5.7) 13 10.0 1.5%
Rijo Walker FS 5'10, 185 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 7.5 1.1% 1
Drequan Hoskey CB 6'0, 175 So. ** (5.4) 12 4.0 0.6% 1
Brandon Phelps CB 6'0, 175 So. **** (5.8) 13 3.0 0.4%
Pablo Alvarez FS 6'3, 205 So. *** (5.5)
Brendan Morgan CB 6'0, 180 So. NR
Kyrrel Latimer SS 5'10, 205 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Mason Thomas SS 6'0, 190 RSFr. ** (5.3)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jimmy Howell 62 39.4 5 14 20 54.8%
Robert Randolph 1 27.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chris Hinkebein 60 65.2 7 11.7%
Jimmy Howell 1 57 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Robert Randolph 32-32 12-16 75.0% 4-7 57.1%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Darius Jennings KR 5'11, 165 So. 30 20.0 0
Khalek Shepherd KR 5'8, 185 So. 17 26.0 0
Dominique Terrell PR 5'11, 170 So. 14 4.4 0
Perry Jones PR 5'8, 185 Sr. 8 5.9 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 104
Net Punting 92
Net Kickoffs 26
Touchback Pct 76
Field Goal Pct 59
Kick Returns Avg 57
Punt Returns Avg 94

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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