2012 Utah Utes Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 54
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Montana State 27-10 W 22.9 - 25.1 L
10-Sep at USC 14-23 L 22.7 - 25.2 L
17-Sep at BYU 54-10 W 34.8 - 22.7 W
1-Oct Washington 14-31 L 22.3 - 26.8 L
8-Oct Arizona State 14-35 L 22.6 - 26.6 L
15-Oct at Pittsburgh 26-14 W 21.5 - 8.1 W
22-Oct at California 10-34 L 18.8 - 29.2 L
29-Oct Oregon State 27-8 W 24.4 - 22.1 W
5-Nov at Arizona 34-21 W 25.9 - 28.1 L
12-Nov UCLA 31-6 W 28.7 - 19.1 W
19-Nov at Washington State 30-27 W 22.6 - 26.8 L
25-Nov Colorado 14-17 L 23.7 - 29.1 L
31-Dec Georgia Tech 30-27 W 26.9 - 23.6 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 25.0 74 20.2 19
Adj. Points Per Game 24.5 108 24.0 17

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Northern Colorado NR
7-Sep at Utah State 79
15-Sep BYU 34
22-Sep at Arizona State 60
4-Oct USC 6
13-Oct at UCLA 58
20-Oct at Oregon State 74
27-Oct California 55
3-Nov Washington State 97
10-Nov at Washington 59
17-Nov Arizona 67
23-Nov at Colorado 101
Five-Year F/+ Rk 26
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 35
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +10 / +5.3
TO Luck/Game +1.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (9, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -5.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 109 111 112 108
RUSHING 79 108 104 107
PASSING 99 102 103 93
Standard Downs 102 102 98
Passing Downs 113 118 109
Redzone 120 116 118
Q1 Rk 115 1st Down Rk 93
Q2 Rk 79 2nd Down Rk 112
Q3 Rk 104 3rd Down Rk 109
Q4 Rk 109
Adj. Line Yards Rk 107
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 101

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Jon Hays 6'0, 212 Sr. NR 120 214 1,459 56.1% 12 8 27 11.2% 5.4
Jordan Wynn 6'2, 207 Jr. *** (5.6) 66 116 727 56.9% 6 2 5 4.1% 5.5
Chase Hansen 6'3, 212 Fr. **** (5.8)






Travis Wilson 6'6, 204 Fr. *** (5.7)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
John White IV RB 5'8, 186 Sr. *** (5.7) 316 1,520 4.8 1.9 15 -5.6
Jon Hays QB 6'0, 212 Sr. NR 34 85 2.5 0.9 0 -11.8
Tauni Vakapuna RB 31 104 3.4 0.9 1 -5.3
Reggie Dunn WR-X 5'10, 170 Sr. **** (5.8) 15 173 11.5 7.5 0 +5.9
Harvey Langi RB 6'1, 225 So. **** (5.8) 13 70 5.4 2.4 0 -0.7
Kelvin York RB 5'11, 225 Jr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
DeVonte Christopher WR-X 6'1, 200 Sr. *** (5.7) 75 42 663 56.0% 25.0% 46.7% 6.8
Dres Anderson WR-X 6'1, 171 So. *** (5.6) 38 23 355 60.5% 12.7% 50.0% 7.5
Luke Matthews WR-F 6'2, 206 Sr. *** (5.5) 37 17 263 45.9% 12.3% 35.1% 4.4
Reggie Dunn WR-Z 5'10, 170 Sr. **** (5.8) 31 15 211 48.4% 10.3% 54.8% 3.9
Dallin Rogers TE 6'3, 245 Sr. ** (5.3) 25 22 160 88.0% 8.3% 72.0% 7.4
Kendrick Moeai TE 6'5, 260 Sr. ** (5.2) 23 15 84 65.2% 7.7% 56.5% 3.2
Shawn Asiata FB 17 12 97 70.6% 5.7% 76.5% 5.1
John White IV RB 5'8, 186 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 13 44 100.0% 4.3% 38.5% 3.8
Kenneth Scott WR-Z 6'3, 205 So. **** (5.8) 11 8 141 72.7% 3.7% 63.6% 13.2
Jake Murphy TE 6'4, 255 So. **** (5.8) 8 5 64 62.5% 2.7% 75.0% 6.1
David Rolf TE 6'4, 250 Sr. *** (5.5) 3 3 48 100.0% 1.0% 100.0% 16.0
Sean Fitzgerald WR-F 6'3, 200 Jr. ** (5.2)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Tony Bergstrom RT 38 career starts, 2011 1st All-Pac-12
John Cullen LT 24 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Pac-12
Tevita Stevens C 6'3, 300 Sr. ** (5.4) 23 career starts
Sam Brenner RG 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 career starts
Miles Mason LG 6'3, 316 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 career starts
Latu Heimuli LG 6'2, 315 Jr. **** (5.8) 2 career starts
Vyncent Jones C 6'3, 300 Jr. *** (5.5) 1 career start
Kapua Sai LT


Jeremiah Tofaeono RG 6'2, 317 Jr. *** (5.5)
Percy Taumoelau RT 6'4, 314 Jr. *** (5.5)
Daniel Nielson RT 6'6, 317 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Kala Friel LT 6'4, 305 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Marc Pouvave OL 6'4, 336 Jr. *** (5.5)
Cedrick Poutasi OL 6'5, 322 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 40 14 19 13
RUSHING 20 16 15 13
PASSING 75 19 24 17
Standard Downs 14 23 11
Passing Downs 22 32 18
Redzone 7 7 6
Q1 Rk 15 1st Down Rk 28
Q2 Rk 15 2nd Down Rk 7
Q3 Rk 69 3rd Down Rk 29
Q4 Rk 14
Adj. Line Yards Rk 39
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 51

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Derrick Shelby DE 13 40.5 5.8% 10 5 1 7 1
Star Lotulelei NT 6'3, 325 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 30.0 4.3% 9 1.5 1 1 1
Joe Kruger DE 6'7, 275 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 26.0 3.7% 5 3 1 1
Tevita Finau DE 13 24.0 3.4% 5 3 2
Dave Kruger DT 6'5, 285 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 14.5 2.1% 1.5 1
Nai Fotu DE 11 4.5 0.6% 2 2 1
Thretton Palamo DE 6'2, 250 Jr. NR 12 4.5 0.6% 1
Nate Fakahafua DE 6'3, 240 So. *** (5.7) 13 3.5 0.5% 2
James Aiono NT 13 1.5 0.2% 2
Joape Pela DT 6'1, 308 Sr. NR
Niasi Leota DE 6'4, 245 Jr. *** (5.6)
Seni Fauonuku DT 5'11, 295 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Junior Salt DT 6'2, 330 Jr. **** (5.8)
Niasi Leota DE 6'5, 275 Jr. *** (5.6)
Tenny Palepoi DT 6'2, 305 Jr. *** (5.5)
Hunter Dimick DE 6'3, 261 Fr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Chaz Walker MLB 13 84.0 12.0% 3.5 1 2
Matt Martinez ROV 13 62.0 8.8% 8 2.5 2 1 1
Trevor Reilly STUD 6'5, 238 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 38.5 5.5% 9 5 2 4 2
Boo Andersen LB 6'1, 240 Sr. NR 7 15.5 2.2% 2 1
J.J. Williams LB 8 14.5 2.1% 1 1
Jacoby Hale ROV 6'0, 225 So. *** (5.6) 7 7.0 1.0% 1
Dave Fagergren ROV 6'0, 222 Sr. NR 13 3.0 0.4% 1 1 2 1
V.J. Fehoko MLB 5'11, 235 So. **** (5.8) 8 2.5 0.4% 1
Victor Spikes ROV 6'0, 219 Jr. ** (5.4) 0.0 0.0%
Jared Norris MLB 6'1, 230 RSFr. *** (5.7)
L.T. Filiaga MLB 6'0, 240 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Jason Whittingham STUD 6'2, 235 RSFr. ** (5.2)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brian Blechen SS 6'2, 230 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 61.0 8.7% 8 2 3 2 3
Eric Rowe FS 6'1, 185 So. *** (5.7) 13 52.0 7.4% 2.5 1 1 9 1
Ryan Lacy CB 5'9, 187 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 45.0 6.4% 1 1 2 10
Conroy Black CB 13 29.5 4.2% 4 4 1
Reggie Topps CB 5'11, 190 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 24.5 3.5% 3.5 2 1 3 1
Mo Lee CB 6'0, 190 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 23.0 3.3% 3 6 1
Greg Bird DB 13 19.0 2.7%
Quade Chappuis FS 5'11, 196 Jr. NR 13 14.0 2.0% 1
Keith McGill DB 6'3, 202 Sr. **** (5.8) 5 9.0 1.3% 1
Chandler Johnson CB 6'0, 180 So. NR 13 8.5 1.2%
Michael Walker SS 5'9, 185 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 7.5 1.1% 1 1
Wykie Freeman CB 5'11, 175 Jr. *** (5.5)
Justin Thomas DB 5'9, 170 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Sean Sellwood 6'3, 200 Sr. 50 45.0 8 19 16 70.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Nick Marsh 5'11, 183 Jr. 67 65.7 11 16.4%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Coleman Petersen 6'2, 192 Sr. 37-38 14-16 87.5% 4-9 44.4%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Reggie Dunn KR 5'10, 170 Sr. 26 23.6 0
Ryan Lacy KR 5'9, 187 Sr. 3 23.0 0
Griff McNabb PR

22 7.5 0
Charles Henderson PR 5'9, 182 So. 9 12.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 25
Net Punting 12
Net Kickoffs 4
Touchback Pct 48
Field Goal Pct 50
Kick Returns Avg 35
Punt Returns Avg 52

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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