2012 USC Trojans Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-2 | Adj. Record: 9-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 11
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Minnesota 19-17 W 26.0 - 28.4 L
10-Sep Utah 23-14 W 31.7 - 26.1 W
17-Sep Syracuse 38-17 W 34.1 - 30.1 W
24-Sep at Arizona State 22-43 L 26.3 - 30.3 L
1-Oct Arizona 48-41 W 33.0 - 31.7 W
13-Oct at California 30-9 W 27.3 - 19.8 W
22-Oct at Notre Dame 31-17 W 33.4 - 26.2 W
29-Oct Stanford 48-56 L 34.5 - 28.8 W
4-Nov at Colorado 42-17 W 30.1 - 30.1 L
12-Nov Washington 40-17 W 25.1 - 21.5 W
19-Nov at Oregon 38-35 W 35.4 - 26.7 W
26-Nov UCLA 50-0 W 40.6 - 26.9 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 35.8 16 23.6 45
Adj. Points Per Game 31.5 15 27.2 51

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Hawaii 93
8-Sep vs. Syracuse 78
15-Sep at Stanford 9
22-Sep California 55
4-Oct at Utah 33
13-Oct at Washington 59
20-Oct Colorado 101
27-Oct at Arizona 67
3-Nov Oregon 5
10-Nov Arizona State 60
17-Nov at UCLA 58
24-Nov Notre Dame 11
Five-Year F/+ Rk 8
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 4
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -1 / +5.8
TO Luck/Game -2.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -3.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 21 13 6 19
RUSHING 52 30 12 51
PASSING 15 14 8 19
Standard Downs 12 7 23
Passing Downs 21 33 19
Redzone 35 17 60
Q1 Rk 8 1st Down Rk 7
Q2 Rk 33 2nd Down Rk 18
Q3 Rk 8 3rd Down Rk 28
Q4 Rk 61
Adj. Line Yards Rk 37
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 2

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Matt Barkley 6'2, 230 Sr. ***** (6.1) 308 446 3,528 69.1% 39 7 8 1.8% 7.7
Max Wittek 6'4, 225 RSFr. **** (5.9)








Cody Kessler 6'1, 210 RSFr. **** (5.9)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Silas Redd RB 5'10, 200 Jr. **** (6.0) 244 1,241 5.1 1.6 7 -0.3
Curtis McNeal RB 5'7, 180 Sr. *** (5.7) 145 1,005 6.9 3.4 6 +15.1
Marc Tyler RB 122 568 4.7 1.3 4 +0.7
D.J. Morgan RB 5'10, 190 So. **** (5.9) 42 163 3.9 1.4 0 -7.4
Matt Barkley QB 6'2, 230 Sr. ***** (6.1) 20 65 3.3 0.5 2 -1.6
Amir Carlisle RB 19 118 6.2 2.8 0 -3.2
Javorious Allen RB 6'0, 215 RSFr. *** (5.7)




^ Redd is a Penn State transfer, eligible immediately.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Robert Woods FL 6'1, 180 Jr. ***** (6.1) 166 111 1,292 66.9% 38.5% 68.7% 6.9
Marqise Lee SE 6'0, 190 So. **** (6.0) 94 73 1,143 77.7% 21.8% 66.0% 14.0
Randall Telfer TE 6'4, 230 So. **** (5.8) 35 26 273 74.3% 8.1% 80.0% 9.3
Rhett Ellison TE 29 22 133 75.9% 6.7% 72.4% 4.6
Brandon Carswell FL 29 18 153 62.1% 6.7% 69.0% 4.4
Xavier Grimble TE 6'5, 245 So. **** (6.0) 21 15 144 71.4% 4.9% 71.4% 6.1
Brice Butler SE 19 12 150 63.2% 4.4% 68.4% 9.2
Silas Redd RB 5'10, 200 Jr. **** (6.0) 15 9 40 60.0% 4.3% 26.7% 1.5
Marc Tyler RB 15 11 108 73.3% 3.5% 40.0% 7.2
Amir Carlisle RB 7 7 41 100.0% 1.6% 42.9% 8.2
George Farmer SE 6'1, 210 So. ***** (6.1) 4 4 42 100.0% 0.9% 100.0% 10.5
De'Von Flournoy FL 6'0, 180 Jr. **** (5.8)



Cody Skene FL 5'9, 165 Jr. NR



Victor Blackwell SE 6'1, 190 RSFr. **** (5.8)



Nelson Agholor WR 6'2, 180 Fr. ***** (6.1)



Darreus Rogers WR 6'2, 194 Fr. **** (5.8)



Jalen Cope-Fitzpatrick TE 6'5, 250 Fr. **** (5.8)



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Matt Kalil LT 26 career starts, 2011 1st All-Pac-12
Khaled Holmes C 6'4, 310 Sr. **** (5.9) 25 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Pac-12
John Martinez RG 6'2, 290 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 career starts
Kevin Graf RT 6'6, 305 Jr. **** (6.0) 12 career starts
Marcus Martin LG 6'3, 340 So. *** (5.6) 10 career starts
Martin Coleman LG 1 career start
Jeremy Galten RG 6'5, 285 Sr. *** (5.5) 1 career start
Nathan Guertler LT 6'5, 275 So. NR
Cyrus Hobbi LG 6'3, 275 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Aundrey Walker LT 6'6, 320 So. **** (5.9)
Abe Markowitz C 6'1, 310 Sr. NR
David Garness RT 6'5, 295 Jr. *** (5.7)
Jordan Simmons OL 6'5, 333 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Zach Banner OL 6'9, 310 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Max Tuerk OL 6'6, 294 Fr. **** (6.0)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 54 27 29 27
RUSHING 18 24 18 35
PASSING 103 23 40 20
Standard Downs 41 56 31
Passing Downs 35 48 28
Redzone 31 66 19
Q1 Rk 16 1st Down Rk 74
Q2 Rk 21 2nd Down Rk 19
Q3 Rk 71 3rd Down Rk 20
Q4 Rk 78
Adj. Line Yards Rk 23
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 37

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nick Perry DE 12 42.5 6.4% 13 9.5 3 3 1
Devon Kennard DE 6'3, 250 Sr. ***** (6.1) 12 21.5 3.3% 4 2
DaJohn Harris DT 11 18.0 2.7% 7 1.5 6 1
Wes Horton DE 6'5, 265 Sr. **** (6.0) 12 17.5 2.7% 4.5 4 2 1
George Uko DT 6'3, 295 So. **** (6.0) 12 14.5 2.2% 1.5 1.5 1 2
Christian Tupou DT 12 12.0 1.8%
J.R. Tavai DT 6'2, 270 So. *** (5.6) 7 4.0 0.6% 1
Kevin Greene DE 6'4, 260 Jr. *** (5.7) 10 0.5 0.1%
Morgan Breslin DE 6'2, 255 Jr. **** (5.8)
Zack Kusnir DT 6'5, 250 So. NR
Greg Townsend, Jr. DE 6'3, 275 RSFr. **** (5.9)
Christian Heyward DT 6'2, 285 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Antwaun Woods DT 6'1, 325 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Cody Temple DT 6'3, 280 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Leonard Williams DE 6'5, 254 Fr. **** (6.0)









Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dion Bailey SLB 6'0, 200 So. **** (5.9) 11 64.5 9.8% 2 2 2 2 1
Hayes Pullard WLB 6'0, 225 So. **** (5.8) 12 64.0 9.7% 6.5 4 2 2
Chris Galippo MLB 12 34.0 5.2% 3.5 1.5 1 5 1
Shane Horton WLB 12 30.5 4.6% 1 0.5 2
Lamar Dawson MLB 6'2, 235 So. **** (5.9) 8 20.0 3.0% 2 1
Tony Burnett SLB 6'1, 195 Sr. NR 12 20.0 3.0% 1
Tre Madden^ SLB 6'0, 220 So. **** (5.9) 12 12.0 1.8% 1
Ross Cumming LB 12 10.5 1.6%
Simione Vehikite LB 12 4.0 0.6%
Will Andrew MLB 6'2, 230 Jr. NR 6 3.5 0.5% 1
Marquis Simmons SLB 6'1, 220 Jr. **** (5.9) 2 0.5 0.1%
Anthony Sarao WLB 6'0, 210 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Scott Starr MLB 6'3, 220 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jabari Ruffin LB 6'4, 230 Fr. **** (6.0)

^ Madden moved to running back this spring, then was lost for the season with a knee injury.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
T.J. McDonald FS 6'3, 205 Sr. ***** (6.1) 12 53.0 8.0% 2.5 3 2 1
Nickell Robey CB 5'8, 165 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 51.0 7.7% 3.5 2 2 9
Jawanza Starling SS 6'1, 195 Sr. **** (5.9) 11 40.5 6.1% 3.5 2 2
Isiah Wiley CB 6'1, 185 Sr. *** (5.7) 10 31.0 4.7% 2 1 4 1
Brian Baucham (2010^) CB 5'11, 170 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 18.5 2.7% 2
Drew McAllister FS 6'1, 205 Sr. *** (5.7) 10 17.0 2.6% 1
Torin Harris CB 6'0, 180 Jr. **** (5.8) 4 15.5 2.4% 1 2 1
Anthony Brown CB 5'9, 185 So. *** (5.7) 4 14.5 2.2% 1
Demetrius Wright SS 6'1, 195 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 9.5 1.4% 0.5 0.5
Cody Romness S 10 5.5 0.8% 1
Marshall Jones SS 12 5.0 0.8%
Gerald Bowman DB 6'1, 210 Jr. **** (6.0)
Kevon Seymour DB 6'0, 180 Fr. **** (6.0)
Devian Shelton DB 6'1, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Baucham missed 2011 because of academic ineligibility.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kyle Negrete 6'0, 210 Sr. 39 40.1 0 13 19 82.1%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Andre Heidari 5'10, 210 So. 76 65 10 13.2%
Craig McMahon 6'1, 180 So. 2 56.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Andre Heidari 5'10, 210 So. 50-50 11-12 91.7% 4-5 80.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Robert Woods KR 6'1, 180 Jr. 17 23.1 0
Marqise Lee KR 6'0, 190 So. 10 28.5 1
Robert Woods PR 6'1, 180 Jr. 13 9.1 0
Nickell Robey PR 5'8, 165 Jr. 12 11.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 23
Net Punting 43
Net Kickoffs 62
Touchback Pct 67
Field Goal Pct 4
Kick Returns Avg 79
Punt Returns Avg 37

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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