2012 UNLV Rebels Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 116
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep at Wisconsin 17-51 L 29.5 - 32.4 L
10-Sep at Washington State 7-59 L 16.7 - 34.0 L
17-Sep Hawaii 40-20 W 28.2 - 26.9 W
24-Sep Southern Utah 16-41 L 18.7 - 26.0 L
8-Oct at Nevada 0-37 L 14.7 - 28.6 L
15-Oct at Wyoming 14-41 L 18.7 - 30.1 L
29-Oct Colorado State 38-35 W 27.3 - 30.1 L
5-Nov Boise State 21-48 L 29.9 - 28.4 W
12-Nov at New Mexico 14-21 L 21.4 - 32.7 L
19-Nov at Air Force 17-45 L 23.7 - 32.9 L
26-Nov San Diego State 14-31 L 24.8 - 29.0 L
3-Dec at TCU 9-56 L 15.9 - 30.1 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 17.3 113 40.4 118
Adj. Points Per Game 22.5 114 30.1 102

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Minnesota 96
8-Sep Northern Arizona NR
15-Sep Washington State 97
22-Sep Air Force 103
29-Sep at Utah State 79
6-Oct at Louisiana Tech 52
13-Oct Nevada 63
20-Oct at Boise State 39
27-Oct at San Diego State 86
3-Nov New Mexico 124
10-Nov at Colorado State 102
17-Nov Wyoming 108
24-Nov at Hawaii 93
Five-Year F/+ Rk 112
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 99
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +3 / -0.8
TO Luck/Game 1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +4.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 117 116 117 112
RUSHING 48 99 108 84
PASSING 118 119 119 119
Standard Downs 113 112 111
Passing Downs 120 120 120
Redzone 106 112 102
Q1 Rk 104 1st Down Rk 99
Q2 Rk 118 2nd Down Rk 115
Q3 Rk 113 3rd Down Rk 120
Q4 Rk 116
Adj. Line Yards Rk 89
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 105

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Caleb Herring 6'3, 200 Jr. *** (5.6) 113 206 1,004 54.9% 8 6 25 10.8% 3.7
Sean Reilly 6'4, 210 Sr. ** (5.4) 19 39 186 48.7% 1 3 5 11.4% 3.4
Taylor Barnhill^


11 22 102 50.0% 1 0 3 12.0% 3.7
Nick Sherry 6'5, 240 RSFr. *** (5.5)








^ Barnhill moved to linebacker this spring.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Dionza Bradford RB 133 615 4.6 1.5 3 -11.5
Tim Cornett RB 6'0, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 119 671 5.6 2.4 7 +5.3
Bradley Randle RB 5'7, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 112 489 4.4 1.4 2 -4.5
Caleb Herring QB 6'3, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 61 260 4.3 1.9 2 -3.6
Taylor Barnhill QB 6'4, 220 So. *** (5.5) 28 95 3.4 1.0 0 -7.4
David Greene RB 5'11, 185 Fr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Phillip Payne WR 76 44 509 57.9% 30.9% 64.5% 5.1
Michael Johnson WR 64 31 285 48.4% 26.0% 48.4% 3.0
Austin Harrington TE 22 15 164 68.2% 8.9% 50.0% 7.7
Anthony Vidal TE 20 10 55 50.0% 8.1% 60.0% 1.5
Tim Cornett RB 6'0, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 10 54 76.9% 5.3% 30.8% 5.2
Devante Davis WR 6'3, 195 So. *** (5.5) 13 4 42 30.8% 5.3% 53.8% -1.1
Dionza Bradford RB 9 8 45 88.9% 3.7% 77.8% 6.5
Bradley Randle RB 5'7, 195 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 5 60 71.4% 2.8% 28.6% 6.0
Mark Barefield WR 7 4 36 57.1% 2.8% 0.0% 1.7
William Vea FB 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.2) 6 6 30 100.0% 2.4% 66.7% 6.4
Taylor Spencer WR 6'1, 210 So. ** (5.4)
Marcus Sullivan WR 5'9, 195 So. NR
Marquis Thompson WR 5'10, 175 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Jake Phillips TE 6'6, 245 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Nick Gstrein TE 6'4, 275 Fr. ** (5.2)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Doug Zismann RG 6'2, 200 Sr. *** (5.5) 20 career starts
Yusef Rodgers RT 6'2, 260 Sr. ** (5.0) 18 career starts
Brett Boyko LT 6'7, 310 So. NR 12 career starts
Robert Waterman C 6'2, 290 So. ** (5.1) 12 career starts
Jason Heath C 12 career starts
Sean Tesoro LG 8 career starts
Cameron Jefferson LG 6'6, 300 So. ** (5.3) 7 career starts
Shane Watterson LT
Brian Roth RG 6'5, 300 So. ** (5.2)
Brad Overand RT 6'6, 280 Jr. NR
Allen Carroll LG 6'4, 320 Sr. **** (5.8)
Nick White RG 6'5, 305 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Andrew Oberg RT 6'7, 280 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 105 98 98 96
RUSHING 99 105 110 97
PASSING 90 89 58 94
Standard Downs 75 68 76
Passing Downs 111 103 115
Redzone 80 78 84
Q1 Rk 78 1st Down Rk 48
Q2 Rk 96 2nd Down Rk 107
Q3 Rk 99 3rd Down Rk 106
Q4 Rk 71
Adj. Line Yards Rk 96
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 102

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
James Dunlap DE 12 37.0 5.7% 14.5 6.5 3
Tyler Gaston DT 6'3, 280 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 17.0 2.6% 3.5 2 1 1
Matt Kravetz DE 12 16.0 2.5% 2.5 0.5
Alex Klorman DT 6'2, 275 Jr. NR 12 14.0 2.2% 2 1 1 1
Trent Allmang-Wilder DT 6'6, 280 Sr ** (5.2) 12 13.0 2.0% 1.5 0.5
Nate Holloway DT 6'3, 350 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 11.0 1.7% 3.5 1
B.J. Bell DE 12 10.5 1.6% 1 1
Ian Bobak DE 12 9.5 1.5% 2
Desmond Tautofi DE 6'3, 300 So. ** (5.4) 11 8.0 1.2% 2
Jordan Sparkman DE 6'6, 250 So. ** (5.1) 12 3.5 0.5%
Sonny Sanitoa DE 6'3, 235 RSFr. ** (5.2)

James Boyd DE 6'5, 245 Jr. *** (5.5)

Parker Holloway DE 6'4, 250 Jr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nate Carter MLB 12 62.5 9.6% 3.5 0.5 5 1
John Lotulelei WLB 6'0, 230 Sr. NR 12 42.0 6.5% 3 1
Tani Maka WLB 6'1, 240 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 39.5 6.1% 3 2
Tim Hasson SLB 6'2, 210 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 32.0 4.9% 1 1
Princeton Jackson SLB 6'0, 205 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 27.0 4.2% 3 2 1
C.J. Cox LB 6 10.0 1.5% 0.5 1
Eric Tuiloma-Va'a WLB 5'11, 200 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 8.0 1.2% 1
Taylor Barnhill MLB 6'4, 240 So. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Quinton Pointer SS 12 49.0 7.5% 3 2 3 3
Daniel Harper FS 12 48.0 7.4% 1 1 3 1
Sidney Hodge CB 5'8, 175 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 43.0 6.6% 8 1 4
Mike Clausen FS 12 32.0 4.9% 1 1 2
Will Chandler CB 12 26.0 4.0% 3.5 1 1 6 1
Tajh Hasson SS 6'1, 190 So. ** (5.4) 12 14.0 2.2% 1
Mike Horsey DB 5'11, 180 So. NR 12 11.0 1.7%
Ken Spigner CB 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 10.5 1.6% 1 1
Kenny Brown SS 5'10, 175 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 9.0 1.4% 1
Deante' Purvis CB 10 7.5 1.2% 1 1
Kenneth Penny CB 5'11, 160 So. ** (5.2) 5 7.5 1.2% 1
Peni Vea FS 6'1, 195 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Fred Wilson CB 6'0, 175 RSFr. ** (5.3)

Marc Philippi DB 5'11, 205 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Chase Lansford 6'2, 195 Sr. 75 41.2 2 8 16 32.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chase Lansford 6'2, 195 Sr. 33 60.7 7 21.2%
Nolan Kohorst 6'1, 175 Jr. 12 56.1 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Nolan Kohorst 6'1, 175 Jr. 24-24 4-7 57.1% 5-7 71.4%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Deante' Purvis KR 41 24.4 1
Bradley Randle KR 5'7, 190 Jr. 20 20.3 0
Tim Cornett KR 6'0, 205 Jr. 6 33.7 1
Michael Johnson PR 11 4.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 75
Net Punting 65
Net Kickoffs 103
Touchback Pct 55
Field Goal Pct 81
Kick Returns Avg 24
Punt Returns Avg 103

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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