2012 UCLA Bruins Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-8 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 83
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Houston 34-38 L 37.7 - 29.1 W
10-Sep San Jose State 27-17 W 26.5 - 25.5 W
17-Sep Texas 20-49 L 24.9 - 33.2 L
24-Sep at Oregon State 27-19 W 29.5 - 26.9 W
1-Oct at Stanford 19-45 L 30.6 - 31.0 L
8-Oct Washington State 28-25 W 29.1 - 27.3 W
20-Oct at Arizona 12-48 L 21.4 - 30.9 L
29-Oct California 31-14 W 31.5 - 24.3 W
5-Nov Arizona State 29-28 W 30.7 - 30.1 W
12-Nov at Utah 6-31 L 22.2 - 32.3 L
19-Nov Colorado 45-6 W 32.9 - 23.0 W
26-Nov at USC 0-50 L 25.5 - 33.8 L
2-Dec at Oregon 31-49 L 26.6 - 26.9 L
31-Dec vs. Illinois 14-20 L 24.1 - 24.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 23.1 88 31.4 92
Adj. Points Per Game 28.1 53 28.5 76

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug at Rice 112
8-Sep Nebraska 24
15-Sep Houston 29
22-Sep Oregon State 74
29-Sep at Colorado 101
6-Oct at California 55
13-Oct Utah 33
27-Oct at Arizona State 60
3-Nov Arizona 67
10-Nov at Washington State 97
17-Nov USC 6
24-Nov Stanford 9
Five-Year F/+ Rk 65
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 32
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -4.4
TO Luck/Game -0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (7, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 72 32 35 30
RUSHING 37 40 36 43
PASSING 81 19 35 18
Standard Downs 26 33 25
Passing Downs 63 84 54
Redzone 50 36 66
Q1 Rk 39 1st Down Rk 23
Q2 Rk 44 2nd Down Rk 42
Q3 Rk 57 3rd Down Rk 78
Q4 Rk 23
Adj. Line Yards Rk 24
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 87

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kevin Prince 6'2, 223 Sr. *** (5.6) 126 224 1,828 56.3% 12 8 25 10.0% 6.8
Richard Brehaut 6'2, 226 Sr. **** (5.9) 67 121 948 55.4% 6 1 4 3.2% 7.5
Brett Hundley 6'3, 210 RSFr. **** (5.9)






Devin Fuller 6'0, 185 Fr. **** (6.0)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10, 193 Sr. **** (5.8) 166 976 5.9 2.4 5 +0.5
Derrick Coleman RB 152 765 5.0 1.9 11 +11.8
Kevin Prince QB 6'2, 223 Sr. *** (5.6) 95 567 6.0 2.9 1 -4.3
Richard Brehaut QB 6'2, 226 Sr. **** (5.9) 40 183 4.6 1.6 2 +1.0
Malcolm Jones RB 6'0, 227 Jr. **** (5.9) 25 103 4.1 0.6 1 -1.0
Jordon James RB 5'9, 192 So. **** (5.9) 19 51 2.7 0.9 1 -2.0
Steven Manfro RB 5'11, 195 RSFr. ** (5.4)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Nelson Rosario WR 99 64 1,161 64.6% 31.0% 50.5% 11.4
Joseph Fauria TE 6'8, 252 Sr. **** (5.8) 58 39 481 67.2% 18.2% 41.4% 8.1
Shaquelle Evans WR 6'1, 196 Jr. **** (5.9) 34 19 309 55.9% 10.7% 58.8% 7.2
Taylor Embree WR 32 20 228 62.5% 10.0% 62.5% 6.3
Josh Smith WR 24 11 243 45.8% 7.5% 62.5% 6.3
Ricky Marvray WR 5'11, 187 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 10 57 76.9% 4.1% 84.6% 5.8
Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10, 193 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 9 74 75.0% 3.8% 41.7% 6.9
Randall Carroll WR 11 3 34 27.3% 3.4% 63.6% 0.0
Anthony Barr^ WR


11 3 16 27.3% 3.4% 63.6% 0.4
Jordon James RB 5'9, 192 So. **** (5.9) 10 7 122 70.0% 3.1% 90.0% 11.1
Jerry Rice, Jr. WR 6'0, 182 Jr. *** (5.5) 3 2 17 66.7% 0.9% 33.3% 5.7
Jerry Johnson WR 6'4, 218 Sr. **** (5.8)
Darius Bell TE 6'0, 230 Jr. *** (5.5)
Devin Lucien WR 6'1, 192 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Roosevelt Davis WR 5'7, 162 RSFr. NR
Jordan Payton WR 6'2, 199 Fr. **** (5.9)
Javon Williams WR 6'5, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Barr moved to linebacker.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mike Harris RT 42 career starts
Jeff Baca RG 6'4, 305 Sr. *** (5.7) 33 career starts
Kai Maiava C 25 career starts
Greg Capella LG 6'3, 292 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 career starts
Sean Sheller LT 13 career starts
Alberto Cid RG 6'2, 323 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 career starts
Chris Ward RG 6'4, 330 Jr. **** (5.8) 4 career starts
Wade Yandall LG 6'4, 328 So. *** (5.6) 3 career starts
Casey Griffiths RG 6'4, 284 Jr. NR
Brett Downey RT 6'7, 290 Sr. NR
Xavier Su'a-Filo LT 6'4, 310 So. **** (6.0)
Alexandru Ceachir LG 6'5, 305 So. *** (5.6)
Jake Brendel C 6'5, 295 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Torian White RT 6'6, 295 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Will Oliver RT 6'7, 305 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Michael Padovese LT 6'5, 322 RSFr. NR
Lacy Westbrook OL 6'5, 300 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 89 67 77 69
RUSHING 95 102 97 103
PASSING 64 48 51 45
Standard Downs 68 86 63
Passing Downs 60 43 68
Redzone 92 101 87
Q1 Rk 96 1st Down Rk 62
Q2 Rk 48 2nd Down Rk 40
Q3 Rk 72 3rd Down Rk 88
Q4 Rk 44
Adj. Line Yards Rk 113
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 112

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Datone Jones DE 6'5, 280 Sr. **** (5.9) 14 32.0 4.1% 6.5 3 2
Donovan Carter DT 6'2, 313 Sr. *** (5.7) 14 26.0 3.3% 3.5 1
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE 6'5, 278 Jr. ***** (6.1) 14 17.5 2.2% 3
Cassius Marsh DE 6'4, 295 Jr. **** (6.0) 12 17.5 2.2% 4 2
Iuta Tepa DE 6'2, 268 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 15.5 2.0% 4.5 1 1
Nate Chandler DT 14 13.5 1.7% 2.5 1 1
Justin Edison DT 12 6.5 0.8% 0.5
Seali'i Epenesa DT 6'2, 323 Jr. *** (5.6) 8 6.5 0.8% 1
Brandon Willis DT 6'3, 275 So. **** (5.9)

Ellis McCarthy DT 6'5, 311 Fr. ***** (6.1)

Jeremy Castro DE 6'1, 240 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Pat Larimore ILB


13 65.5 8.4% 2 1 1 4 1 1
Eric Kendricks ILB 6'2, 220 So. *** (5.6) 14 64.5 8.3% 4.5 2 3
Jordan Zumwalt OLB 6'4, 236 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 49.0 6.3% 6 1 1
Sean Westgate OLB 11 33.5 4.3% 1.5 3
Glenn Love OLB 11 31.0 4.0% 4.5 1 1
Damien Holmes OLB 6'4, 260 Sr. **** (5.8) 14 26.0 3.3% 6 1 2
Keenan Graham OLB 6'3, 252 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 16.0 2.1% 2.5 1 1
Isaiah Bowens ILB 6'1, 233 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 7.5 1.0% 2
Jared Koster ILB 6'1, 208 So. ** (5.1) 3 0.5 0.1%
Ryan Hofmeister ILB 6'2, 220 So. *** (5.6)

Aaron Wallace OLB 6'4, 235 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Aaron Porter LB 6'2, 230 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tevin McDonald FS 6'0, 195 So. *** (5.6) 14 49.5 6.4% 4.5 3 9 1
Aaron Hester CB 6'1, 206 Sr. **** (6.0) 14 49.0 6.3% 2 1 7
Sheldon Price CB 6'2, 185 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 43.5 5.6% 1 1 7 2
Dalton Hilliard SS 6'0, 205 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 41.0 5.3% 1 1
Andrew Abbott SS 5'11, 200 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 40.5 5.2% 2 4 3
Dietrich Riley SS 6'1, 205 Jr. **** (5.9) 8 29.5 3.8% 2 3 1 1
Stan McKay FS 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 26.0 3.3% 0.5 2
Alex Mascarenas FS 5'10, 191 Jr. *** (5.6) 4 16.5 2.1% 2
Tony Dye SS 5 16.5 2.1% 0.5
Anthony Jefferson CB 6'1, 190 So. **** (5.8)

Brandon Sermons CB 5'11, 185 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 1.5 0.2%
Erick Zumwalt CB 5'10, 170 RSFr. NR

Anthony Thompson FS 6'1, 208 RSFr. NR

Ishmael Adams DB 5'10, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)

Marcus Rios DB 6'0, 170 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jeff Locke 6'1, 214 Sr. 64 44.3 4 11 26 57.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jeff Locke 6'1, 214 Sr. 61 66.3 21 34.4%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Tyler Gonzalez 21-22 4-7 57.1% 3-4 75.0%
Kip Smith 7-8 2-3 66.7% 0-0 N/A
Jeff Locke 6'1, 214 Sr. 6-9 0-1 0.0% 2-2 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Josh Smith KR 49 23.1 0
Derrick Coleman KR 5 14.6 0
Taylor Embree PR 12 4.8 0
Jordon James PR 2 2.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 87
Net Punting 22
Net Kickoffs 27
Touchback Pct 7
Field Goal Pct 79
Kick Returns Avg 75
Punt Returns Avg 117

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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