2012 UCF Knights Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 9-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 53
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Charleston S'ern 62-0 W 31.9 - 16.5 W
10-Sep Boston College 30-3 W 31.3 - 18.1 W
17-Sep at Florida International 10-17 L 28.0 - 23.0 W
23-Sep at BYU 17-24 L 30.4 - 22.9 W
8-Oct Marshall 16-6 W 25.4 - 5.6 W
15-Oct at SMU 17-38 L 30.4 - 33.4 L
20-Oct at UAB 24-26 L 25.1 - 32.4 L
29-Oct Memphis 41-0 W 28.4 - 17.7 W
3-Nov Tulsa 17-24 L 31.1 - 29.0 W
12-Nov at Southern Miss 29-30 L 32.6 - 28.0 W
19-Nov at East Carolina 31-38 L 24.7 - 29.7 L
25-Nov UTEP 31-14 W 35.4 - 25.7 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 27.1 59 18.3 9
Adj. Points Per Game 29.6 33 23.5 12

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug at Akron 123
8-Sep at Ohio State 20
15-Sep Florida International 56
29-Sep Missouri 30
6-Oct East Carolina 82
13-Oct Southern Miss 46
20-Oct at Memphis 117
27-Oct at Marshall 94
3-Nov SMU 65
10-Nov at UTEP 104
17-Nov at Tulsa 47
24-Nov UAB 115
Five-Year F/+ Rk 52
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 59
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -3 / +3.9
TO Luck/Game -2.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (7, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.6

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 40 54 52 54
RUSHING 43 58 74 52
PASSING 55 41 30 51
Standard Downs 32 43 31
Passing Downs 86 69 85
Redzone 44 56 42
Q1 Rk 38 1st Down Rk 19
Q2 Rk 75 2nd Down Rk 84
Q3 Rk 69 3rd Down Rk 59
Q4 Rk 24
Adj. Line Yards Rk 56
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 95

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Jeff Godfrey^ 5'11, 182 Jr. *** (5.7) 160 232 1,898 69.0% 5 5 17 6.8% 7.2
Blake Bortles 6'4, 223 So. *** (5.6) 75 110 958 68.2% 6 3 8 6.8% 7.7
Rob Calabrese 6'2, 216 Sr. *** (5.5)








Tyler Gabbert^^ 6'0, 190 So. **** (5.8)








^ Godfrey initially announced his transfer from UCF following the season, but he returned in May and will compete at wide receiver this fall.
^^ Gabbert originally signed with Missouri but transferred after redshirting.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Brynn Harvey TB 6'1, 207 Sr. *** (5.7) 126 574 4.6 1.5 3 -5.4
Latavius Murray TB 6'3, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 98 549 5.6 2.3 8 +11.7
Jeff Godfrey QB 5'11, 182 Jr. *** (5.7) 94 510 5.4 1.8 9 +10.0
Ronnie Weaver TB 77 299 3.9 1.3 3 -3.5
Blake Bortles QB 6'4, 223 So. *** (5.6) 13 51 3.9 0.7 1 -0.3
Quincy McDuffie WR 5'10, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 132 11.0 6.5 1 +4.5
Storm Johnson (2010^) RB 6'1, 216 So. **** (5.9) 9 119 13.2 9.4 1 +4.1

^ Johnson is a Miami transfer who will be eligible this fall.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Quincy McDuffie WR 5'10, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 62 43 482 69.4% 18.8% 67.7% 7.4
J.J. Worton WR 6'2, 193 So. NR 51 41 531 80.4% 15.5% 62.7% 11.7
Josh Reese WR 6'1, 178 So. **** (5.8) 43 30 461 69.8% 13.1% 58.1% 10.9
A.J. Guyton WR 40 27 404 67.5% 12.2% 57.5% 10.0
Adam Nissley TE 30 21 235 70.0% 9.1% 73.3% 8.8
Dontravius Floyd HB 6'2, 232 Jr. *** (5.5) 17 11 92 64.7% 5.2% 47.1% 6.0
Brynn Harvey TB 6'1, 207 Sr. *** (5.7) 16 13 103 81.3% 4.9% 50.0% 7.1
Rannell Hall WR 6'2, 175 So. ** (5.4) 14 4 34 28.6% 4.3% 57.1% -1.2
Latavius Murray TB 6'3, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 18 17 242 94.4% 5.5% 38.9% 17.0
Khymest Williams WR 14 8 113 57.1% 4.3% 50.0% 7.0
Drico Johnson WR 6'2, 200 Fr. *** (5.6)





Taylor Oldham WR 6'1, 195 Fr. *** (5.6)






Dareen Owl WR 6'3, 200 Fr. *** (5.5)






Breshad Perriman WR 6'2, 203 Fr. ** (5.4)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Nick Pieschel RT 43 career starts, 2011 2nd All-CUSA
Cliff McCray RG 33 career starts
Jordan Rae C 6'2, 272 Sr. NR 25 career starts
Theo Goins LG 6'4, 316 Sr. ** (5.2) 22 career starts
Chris Martin LT


13 career starts
Justin McCray RG 6'4, 307 Jr. *** (5.5) 6 career starts
Torrian Wilson LT 6'4, 309 So. **** (5.8) 3 career starts
Jordan McCray LG 6'4, 309 Jr. *** (5.5) 1 career start
Rey Cunha C 6'3, 278 Jr. ** (5.3)
Tony Jacob RT 6'8, 343 So. ** (5.4)
Chester Brown OL 6'5, 340 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 9 44 35 54
RUSHING 16 52 46 63
PASSING 23 36 26 50
Standard Downs 79 54 89
Passing Downs 24 12 31
Redzone 35 22 51
Q1 Rk 33 1st Down Rk 98
Q2 Rk 31 2nd Down Rk 27
Q3 Rk 57 3rd Down Rk 19
Q4 Rk 103
Adj. Line Yards Rk 75
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 60

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Victor Gray DT 6'4, 267 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 23.5 4.1% 5 1.5 7 1
Troy Davis DE 6'2, 256 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 22.5 3.9% 8.5 5 2 1
Darius Nall DE 10 18.5 3.2% 5 2.5 3
Toby Jackson DE


9 12.5 2.2% 3
Cam Henderson DE 6'5, 250 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 11.5 2.0% 1
E.J. Dunston DT 6'2, 302 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 8.5 1.5% 1.5
LeBranden Richardson DE


9 6.5 1.1% 1 1
Josh Wofford DT 6'1, 311 Jr. NR 8 5.5 1.0%
Barry Snider DT 10 4.5 0.8% 0.5 1
Luke Adams DE 6'4, 250 Fr. *** (5.5)




Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Josh Linam MLB 12 53.0 9.3% 10 2 2 2 2 1
Jonathan Davis OLB 5'9, 199 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 36.0 6.3% 10.5 3 2
Ray Shipman OLB 6'5, 237 Sr. NR 9 26.5 4.6% 4.5 1 3
Troy Gray OLB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.6) 12 23.5 4.1% 3.5 1 2
Leilon Willingham OLB


10 16.0 2.8% 0.5 1
Terrance Plummer MLB 6'1, 221 So. *** (5.6) 11 14.5 2.5% 2
Willie Mitchell LB 6'1, 233 So. *** (5.6) 3 2.0 0.3%
Stanley Sylverain LB 6'3, 215 Fr. *** (5.5)


Domenic Spencer LB 5'11, 215 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kemal Ishmael FS 5'11, 211 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 60.0 10.5% 2.5 3 1 1
Clayton Geathers SS 6'3, 200 So. ** (5.4) 12 53.5 9.4% 3 6
Josh Robinson CB


12 41.0 7.2% 2 15 1
Brandon Alexander CB 6'1, 180 So. NR 10 35.0 6.1% 0.5 5 1
Lyle Dankenbring FS 5'10, 199 Sr. NR 12 24.0 4.2% 1 1
A.J. Bouye DB 6'0, 179 Sr. ** (5.3) 7 20.0 3.5% 1.5 2 3
Jarrett Swaby CB


11 8.5 1.5%
Jacoby Glenn DB 6'1, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)


Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
David Bohner 42 41.2 7 8 16 57.1%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Nick Cattoi 53 62.8 7 13.2%
Sean Galvin 6'2, 210 So. 10 62.4 1 10.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Nick Cattoi 21-21 8-12 66.7% 2-3 66.7%
Shawn Moffitt 6'0, 160 So. 17-17 5-6 83.3% 0-3 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Rannell Hall KR 6'2, 175 So. 23 31.0 0
Khymest Williams KR 7 21.1 0
J.J. Worton PR 6'2, 193 So. 17 8.8 0
Josh Robinson PR 5'10, 192 Sr. 7 7.3 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 62
Net Punting 114
Net Kickoffs 68
Touchback Pct 69
Field Goal Pct 91
Kick Returns Avg 3
Punt Returns Avg 60

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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