2012 Tulsa Golden Hurricane Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 35
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Oklahoma 14-47 L 27.4 - 29.8 L
10-Sep at Tulane 31-3 W 26.8 - 20.1 W
17-Sep Oklahoma State 33-59 L 28.6 - 27.9 W
24-Sep at Boise State 21-41 L 28.7 - 26.8 W
1-Oct North Texas 41-24 W 30.3 - 29.2 W
15-Oct UAB 37-20 W 25.8 - 25.7 W
22-Oct at Rice 38-20 W 27.1 - 25.8 W
29-Oct SMU 38-7 W 32.2 - 16.4 W
3-Nov at Central Florida 24-17 W 35.2 - 28.0 W
12-Nov Marshall 59-17 W 37.2 - 26.5 W
19-Nov at UTEP 57-28 W 35.9 - 29.5 W
25-Nov Houston 16-48 L 22.7 - 27.6 L
30-Dec vs BYU 21-24 L 27.9 - 25.6 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 33.1 29 27.3 64
Adj. Points Per Game 29.7 29 26.1 35

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Iowa State 85
8-Sep Tulane 111
15-Sep Nicholls State NR
22-Sep Fresno State 81
29-Sep at UAB 115
6-Oct at Marshall 94
13-Oct UTEP 104
20-Oct Rice 112
3-Nov at Arkansas 14
10-Nov at Houston 29
17-Nov Central Florida 49
24-Nov at SMU 65
Five-Year F/+ Rk 50
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 77
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -1.7
TO Luck/Game -1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 27 27 21 37
RUSHING 25 37 24 55
PASSING 44 23 23 27
Standard Downs 28 15 45
Passing Downs 31 52 27
Redzone 25 23 26
Q1 Rk 43 1st Down Rk 39
Q2 Rk 22 2nd Down Rk 27
Q3 Rk 21 3rd Down Rk 21
Q4 Rk 67
Adj. Line Yards Rk 48
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 22

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
G.J. Kinne 247 390 3,090 63.3% 28 12 13 3.2% 7.4
Kalen Henderson 6'0, 202 So. ** (5.4) 8 29 122 27.6% 3 4 4 12.1% 2.8
Cody Green (2010^) 6'4, 247 Jr. **** (5.8) 33 60 340 55.0% 3 1 19 4.8% 5.1

^ Green transferred from Nebraska and will be eligible this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Trey Watts TB 5'11, 203 Jr. NR 157 881 5.6 2.1 3 -4.5
Ja'Terian Douglas TB 5'11, 180 Jr. *** (5.7) 114 900 7.9 4.3 4 +18.5
G.J. Kinne QB 112 494 4.4 1.5 3 -6.0
Alex Singleton TB 6'1, 260 Sr. *** (5.5) 82 279 3.4 0.9 8 +2.7
Kalen Henderson QB 6'0, 202 So. ** (5.4) 19 47 2.5 0.8 0 -3.7
Willie Carter HB 6'2, 221 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 62 4.8 2.1 2 +0.9
Zack Langer TB 5'11, 204 RSFr. ** (5.4)





James Flanders TB 5'10, 181 Fr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Willie Carter HB 6'2, 221 Sr. ** (5.2) 93 61 868 65.6% 24.0% 57.0% 8.9
Bryan Burnham WR 6'2, 205 Sr. ** (5.3) 83 54 844 65.1% 21.4% 57.8% 9.8
Jordan James FL 6'2, 205 Jr. ** (5.4) 45 31 404 68.9% 11.6% 73.3% 7.4
Clay Sears TE 55 37 465 67.3% 14.2% 58.2% 8.3
Trey Watts TB 5'11, 203 Jr. NR 39 31 239 79.5% 10.1% 41.0% 6.0
Ricky Johnson FL 6'2, 217 Sr. *** (5.6) 22 14 197 63.6% 5.7% 63.6% 8.4
Nathan Largen TE 9 6 76 66.7% 2.3% 100.0% 4.6
Ja'Terian Douglas TB 5'11, 180 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 9 42 64.3% 3.6% 57.1% 2.5
Keyarris Garrett WR 6'4, 185 So. *** (5.6) 5 2 10 40.0% 1.3% 100.0% 0.2
Genesis Cole WR 4 1 4 25.0% 1.0% 75.0% 4.0
Greg Brown TE 6'3, 252 So. ** (5.4)






Zach Epps FL 6'5, 200 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Colt Clontz TE 6'8, 234 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Derek Patterson FL 6'0, 184 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Khiry Cooper^ WR 6'2, 195 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 4 60 50.0% 2.9% 50.0% 3.1

^ Cooper is a fifth-year Nebraska transfer who will be eligible immediately this fall.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Clint Anderson LG 37 career starts, 2011 1st All-CUSA
Tyler Holmes LT 46 career starts
Trent Dupy C 6'2, 285 Sr. *** (5.5) 36 career starts
Stetson Burnett RG 6'4, 305 Jr. *** (5.5) 20 career starts
Matt Romine RT 16 career starts
Brian DeShane RT 6'3, 313 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 career starts
David Lazenby RT 7 career starts
Eric Sproal LG 6 career starts
Jake Alexander LG 6'2, 290 So. *** (5.7)
Gabe Moyer RG 6'2, 291 Jr. ** (5.3)
Jared Grigg LT 6'4, 290 Sr. ** (4.9)
Garrett Gladd LT 6'4, 302 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Garrett Stafford RT 6'5, 301 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Josh Bencke LG 6'0, 280 RSFr. NR

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 87 18 18 24
RUSHING 34 12 25 6
PASSING 117 30 18 49
Standard Downs 29 27 32
Passing Downs 21 26 23
Redzone 62 81 49
Q1 Rk 22 1st Down Rk 19
Q2 Rk 27 2nd Down Rk 29
Q3 Rk 55 3rd Down Rk 33
Q4 Rk 29
Adj. Line Yards Rk 24
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 36

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Cory Dorris DE 6'4, 275 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 39.0 4.8% 6.5 1.5 1 1
Tyrunn Walker DE 13 32.5 4.0% 13.5 8 8 3
Daeshon Bufford DT 6'3, 272 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 25.0 3.1% 2.5 1.5
Derrick Jackson DT 6'2, 293 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 19.0 2.3% 5.5 1
Rashad Robinson DT 12 15.5 1.9% 1 1 1
Brentom Todd DE 6'3, 222 So. *** (5.5) 13 13.5 1.7% 4.5 2 1
Jared St. John DE 6'2, 248 Sr. NR 13 10.0 1.2% 2 1.5 1 1
Jack Jewell DT 6'5, 287 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 9.0 1.1% 1
Joe King DT 6'6, 309 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 8.0 1.0% 1 1 1
Durrell Finch DE 7 4.5 0.6% 2 2 1
Derrick Alexander DE 6'2, 270 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Derrick Luetjen DT 6'3, 279 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Cory Rahmings DE 6'3, 255 Fr. *** (5.5)






Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Curnelius Arnick MIKE 13 129.0 15.8% 6.5 2.5 1 4 1
Shawn Jackson WILL 6'0, 238 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 84.0 10.3% 11 4.5 2 5 1 1
Alan Dock CANE 13 55.0 6.7% 2.5 0.5 2 3 1
DeWitt Jennings CANE 5'10, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 19.5 2.4% 1
DeAundre Brown CANE 5'11, 211 Sr. *** (5.6) 9 19.0 2.3% 1 1
Donnell Hawkins MIKE 6'1, 217 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 7.5 0.9% 1
Zik Asiegbu WILL 6'0, 195 So. ** (5.2) 12 7.0 0.9% 1
Trent Martin MIKE 6'2, 242 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Craig Suits LB 6'0, 215 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dexter McCoil BAN 6'4, 222 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 66.0 8.1% 3 6 7
Marco Nelson FS 6'0, 192 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 59.5 7.3% 0.5 5 2
Milton Howell CB 13 45.5 5.6% 1 4 7 2
John Flanders (2010^) CB 5'10, 170 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 41.5 5.5% 1.5 1 2 5
Lowell Rose CB 6'1, 197 Sr. ** (5.0) 10 29.5 3.6% 2.5 1 1 9
Trent Wilkins BAN 5'11, 200 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 22.5 2.8%
Justin Skillens CB 5'9, 180 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 17.5 2.1% 1
Kwame Sexton FS 5'11, 170 So. *** (5.5) 11 15.0 1.8% 1.5 1
J.D. Ratliff CB 5'9, 174 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 12.0 1.5% 4
Dwight Dobbins CB 5'9, 173 So. ** (5.4) 13 10.0 1.2% 1 1 3 1 1
Darnell Walker DB 5'10, 160 Fr. *** (5.6)

Michael Mudoh FS 5'10, 198 RSFr. *** (5.5)






^ Flanders was academically ineligible in 2011 but is expected back this fall.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Cole Way 6'8, 205 So. 34 38.0 1 16 7 67.6%
Kevin Fitzpatrick 24 42.9 2 2 3 20.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Kevin Fitzpatrick 83 65.1 22 26.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Kevin Fitzpatrick 51-53 11-13 84.6% 4-5 80.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Freeman Kelley KR 5'11, 187 Jr. 22 20.9 0
Trey Watts KR 5'11, 203 Jr. 20 24.1 1
J.D. Ratliff PR 5'9, 174 Sr. 9 4.0 0
Marco Nelson PR 6'0, 192 Jr. 3 7.3 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 49
Net Punting 66
Net Kickoffs 20
Touchback Pct 20
Field Goal Pct 12
Kick Returns Avg 59
Punt Returns Avg 91

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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