2012 Tulane Green Wave Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-11 | Adj. Record: 2-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 114
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep SE Louisiana 47-33 W 26.4 - 33.9 L
10-Sep Tulsa 3-31 L 19.0 - 28.4 L
17-Sep at UAB 49-10 W 29.7 - 23.0 W
24-Sep at Duke 27-48 L 21.3 - 32.8 L
1-Oct at Army 6-45 L 17.4 - 32.3 L
8-Oct Syracuse 34-37 L 33.5 - 29.2 W
15-Oct UTEP 7-44 L 19.8 - 29.6 L
22-Oct Memphis 17-33 L 23.7 - 32.2 L
29-Oct at East Carolina 13-34 L 22.2 - 30.7 L
5-Nov at SMU 24-45 L 25.4 - 31.8 L
10-Nov Houston 17-73 L 22.3 - 31.9 L
19-Nov at Rice 7-19 L 19.6 - 26.5 L
26-Nov at Hawaii 23-35 L 24.2 - 29.8 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.1 105 37.5 115
Adj. Points Per Game 23.4 112 30.2 104

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Rutgers 40
8-Sep at Tulsa 47
22-Sep Ole Miss 83
29-Sep UL-Monroe 90
6-Oct at UL-Lafayette 99
13-Oct SMU 65
20-Oct at UTEP 104
27-Oct UAB 115
3-Nov Rice 112
10-Nov at Memphis 117
17-Nov East Carolina 82
24-Nov at Houston 29
Five-Year F/+ Rk 119
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 94
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -7 / -0.4
TO Luck/Game -2.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (7, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +5.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 97 114 114 114
RUSHING 86 112 112 109
PASSING 71 112 101 113
Standard Downs 116 115 115
Passing Downs 114 113 113
Redzone 119 117 117
Q1 Rk 111 1st Down Rk 108
Q2 Rk 104 2nd Down Rk 119
Q3 Rk 119 3rd Down Rk 113
Q4 Rk 113
Adj. Line Yards Rk 116
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 43

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ryan Griffin 6'5, 218 Sr. ** (5.4) 227 408 2,502 55.6% 13 10 21 4.9% 5.5
D.J. Ponder 6'2, 199 Sr. ** (5.2) 18 48 214 37.5% 0 4 1 2.0% 4.2
Leon Blouin IV 6'0, 201 RSFr. ** (5.3)








Devin Powell 6'5, 212 Fr. ** (5.4)








Fudge Van Hooser 6'2, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Orleans Darkwa TB 6'0, 214 Jr. *** (5.6) 210 924 4.4 1.5 13 -5.1
Robert Kelley TB 5'11, 223 So. *** (5.5) 74 332 4.5 1.2 2 -2.7
Albert Williams TB 61 281 4.6 1.5 2 -5.9
Ryan Griffin QB 6'5, 218 Sr. ** (5.4) 29 125 4.3 1.3 0 -7.2
Dante' Butler RB 5'10, 210 So. *** (5.6) 4 60 15.0 1.3 9.8 +2.0
Derrick Strozier RB 5'8, 179 Jr. ** (5.1)
Lazedrick Thompson RB 6'1, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Justyn Shackleford SE 5'11, 167 So. *** (5.5) 67 31 404 46.3% 15.2% 61.2% 3.0
Wilson Van Hooser FL 6'0, 194 Jr. *** (5.5) 64 36 487 56.3% 14.5% 45.3% 6.0
Ryan Grant (2010^) WR 6'1, 194 Jr. ** (5.3) 58 33 515 56.9% 13.4% 65.5% 7.4
Xavier Rush FL 6'1, 197 So. ** (5.2) 51 24 338 47.1% 11.6% 60.8% 3.8
Orleans Darkwa TB 6'0, 214 Jr. *** (5.6) 48 37 297 77.1% 10.9% 50.0% 7.6
Joe Kemp SE 41 28 280 68.3% 9.3% 51.2% 6.4
Brandon LeBeau WR 6'0, 201 So. ** (5.2) 33 14 143 42.4% 7.5% 51.5% 1.3
Robert Kelley TB 5'11, 223 So. *** (5.5) 23 16 178 69.6% 5.2% 52.2% 7.7
Matt Marfisi TE 6'6, 250 So. ** (5.3) 23 13 131 56.5% 5.2% 78.3% 5.4
Stephen Barnett FB 6'0, 209 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 10 69 76.9% 3.0% 84.6% 4.2
Stephen Suchy TE 6'4, 222 Jr. NR 12 6 109 50.0% 2.7% 66.7% 6.0
Brent Comardelle WR-X 6'0, 191 Jr. ** (5.4) 8 4 94 50.0% 1.8% 62.5% 9.8
Lorenzo Doss WR 6'0, 188 Fr. *** (5.5)






^ Grant missed the 2011 season with a sports hernia.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Harris Howard LT 33 career starts
Zach Morgan LG 6'2, 305 Sr. ** (5.4) 27 career starts
Eric Jones RT 6'6, 308 Sr. ** (5.2) 23 career starts
Emmanuel Aluko RG 19 career starts
Joey Ray C 16 career starts
Pat Husain RT


4 career starts
Adam Skidmore LT 6'6, 300 So. ** (5.1)
Rio Mares LG 6'5, 305 Jr. *** (5.5)
Mike Henry C 6'5, 306 Jr. ** (5.4)
Ben Stone RG 6'3, 288 So. ** (5.2)
Nate Skold LT 6'6, 298 RSFr. ** (5.3)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 83 113 96 117
RUSHING 71 118 112 120
PASSING 87 93 77 95
Standard Downs 110 89 118
Passing Downs 99 82 106
Redzone 104 86 107
Q1 Rk 116 1st Down Rk 86
Q2 Rk 115 2nd Down Rk 118
Q3 Rk 83 3rd Down Rk 99
Q4 Rk 83
Adj. Line Yards Rk 103
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 39

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dezman Moses DE 13 42.5 5.8% 12 9.5 5 3
Austen Jacks DE 6'3, 247 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 28.0 3.9% 5.5 3.5 2 2
Julius Warmsley DT 6'2, 281 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 22.0 3.0% 6 5.5 3 1 1
Cedric Wilson DT 13 15.5 2.1% 2 2
Chris Asumnu NT 13 14.0 1.9% 1.5 1
Michael Pierce, Jr. DE 6'1, 282 So. ** (5.4) 13 12.0 1.7% 0.5 2
Josh Smith DE 12 11.0 1.5%
Kenny Welcome DT 6'2, 295 So. ** (5.4) 8 3.0 0.4%
Devin Williams DT 6'2, 250 Jr. *** (5.5) 3 2.0 0.3%
Corey Redwine DT 6'1, 304 RSFr. ** (5.4)


Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Trent Mackey MLB 5'11, 227 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 120.5 16.6% 14 4.5 1 1
Darryl Farley WLB 6'0, 235 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 55.0 7.6% 8 1 1 3 1
Matthew Bailey SLB 5'11, 204 So. *** (5.5) 13 27.0 3.7% 3.5 1 1
Zach Davis WLB 6'0, 220 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 21.5 3.0% 1 1
Steven Funderburk SLB


11 11.0 1.5%
Logan Hamilton MLB 5'11, 225 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 9.5 1.3% 1
Cameron DeJean LB 6'2, 218 So. *** (5.5)
Royce LaFrance DB 6'3, 235 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Shakiel Smith FS 6'1, 197 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 61.0 8.4% 1 5
Ryan Travis CB 6'0, 172 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 49.0 6.7% 2 4 6
Derrick Strozier CB 5'8, 179 Jr. ** (5.1) 11 37.5 5.2% 1 2 4 1
Jordan Sullen CB


12 34.5 4.7% 1 10
Dominique Robertson NB 6'1, 200 Jr. ** (5.3) 11 32.5 4.5% 4.5 3 3 1
Kyle Davis S 5'11, 210 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 25.5 3.5% 1
Sam Scofield FS 6'1, 180 So. ** (5.3) 10 18.0 2.5% 0.5 1
Taylor Echols SS 5 12.5 1.7% 1
Renaldo Thomas DB 6'4, 205 So. ** (5.4) 4 9.0 1.2% 1 1
Devon Walker SS 6'0, 177 Sr. ** (4.9) 9 9.0 1.2% 1
Alex Lauricella CB 5'11, 187 Sr. ** (5.1) 8 5.0 0.7% 1 2
Jamar Thomas DB 5'11, 200 Jr. ** (5.4)
Darion Monroe DB 5'11, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jordan Batiste DB 5'8, 161 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jonathan Ginsburgh 5'11, 201 Jr. 59 41.7 4 16 12 47.5%
Cairo Santos 5'9, 160 Jr. 15 41.0 0 0 8 53.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Ryan Rome 5'9, 173 Jr. 41 61.6 6 14.6%
Cairo Santos 5'9, 160 Jr. 16 62.6 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Cairo Santos 5'9, 160 Jr. 33-34 6-7 85.7% 5-11 45.5%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Robert Kelley KR 5'11, 223 So. 64 20.4 0
Dante Butler KR 5'10, 210 So. 12 20.6 0
Derrick Strozier PR 5'8, 179 Jr. 18 10.4 0
Carlos Wilson PR 5'10, 191 So. 2 4.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 110
Net Punting 88
Net Kickoffs 114
Touchback Pct 80
Field Goal Pct 95
Kick Returns Avg 91
Punt Returns Avg 46

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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