2012 Toledo Rockets Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 28
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep New Hampshire 58-22 W 28.5 - 32.1 L
10-Sep at Ohio State 22-27 L 26.5 - 24.7 W
16-Sep Boise State 15-40 L 28.5 - 29.3 L
24-Sep at Syracuse 30-33 L 27.7 - 30.5 L
1-Oct at Temple 36-13 W 35.1 - 21.9 W
8-Oct Eastern Michigan 54-16 W 37.8 - 22.7 W
15-Oct at Bowling Green 28-21 W 31.7 - 25.6 W
22-Oct Miami (Ohio) 49-28 W 35.7 - 30.9 W
1-Nov Northern Illinois 60-63 L 36.1 - 33.3 W
8-Nov Western Michigan 66-63 W 34.9 - 31.4 W
18-Nov at Central Michigan 44-17 W 33.2 - 28.4 W
25-Nov at Ball State 45-28 W 28.1 - 30.4 L
28-Dec vs Air Force 42-41 W 27.3 - 27.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 42.2 8 31.7 94
Adj. Points Per Game 31.6 14 28.3 72

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Arizona 67
8-Sep at Wyoming 108
15-Sep Bowling Green 64
22-Sep Coastal Carolina NR
29-Sep at Western Michigan 69
6-Oct Central Michigan 84
13-Oct at Eastern Michigan 91
20-Oct Cincinnati 44
27-Oct at Buffalo 107
6-Nov Ball State 89
14-Nov at Northern Illinois 57
20-Nov Akron 123
Five-Year F/+ Rk 90
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 78
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +16 / +13.5
TO Luck/Game 1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 8 (4, 4)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 9 19 18 22
RUSHING 17 18 23 20
PASSING 30 24 19 30
Standard Downs 18 18 21
Passing Downs 30 46 28
Redzone 9 13 8
Q1 Rk 12 1st Down Rk 38
Q2 Rk 61 2nd Down Rk 14
Q3 Rk 19 3rd Down Rk 13
Q4 Rk 21
Adj. Line Yards Rk 29
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 9

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Terrance Owens 6'4, 180 Jr. ** (5.1) 166 230 2,022 72.2% 18 3 2 0.9% 8.7
Austin Dantin 6'2, 200 Sr. ** (5.2) 122 188 1,404 64.9% 15 4 8 4.1% 6.9

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Adonis Thomas RB 170 1,063 6.3 2.9 12 +21.2
Morgan Williams RB 133 670 5.0 1.8 11 +16.0
David Fluellen RB 6'0, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) 98 501 5.1 1.8 4 +1.7
Austin Dantin QB 6'2, 200 Sr. ** (5.2) 51 241 4.7 1.4 2 +0.2
Terrance Owens QB 6'4, 180 Jr. ** (5.1) 39 222 5.7 2.3 1 -0.1
Dwight Macon QB 6'0, 200 So. *** (5.5) 14 67 4.8 1.6 1 -2.3
David Pasquale RB 6'2, 232 Sr. ** (5.2) 10 57 5.7 1.6 1 +1.2
Darius Reeves RB 6'1, 202 Jr. ** (4.9) 7 19 2.7 0.1 0 -1.4
Jamaal Jackson RB 5'10, 185 So. *** (5.6)





Cassius McDowell RB 5'9, 180 So. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Eric Page WR-M 158 124 1,158 78.5% 38.3% 64.6% 8.0
Bernard Reedy WR-Z 5'9, 175 Jr. *** (5.6) 64 40 773 62.5% 15.5% 56.3% 11.2
Adonis Thomas RB 41 31 350 75.6% 10.0% 36.6% 9.1
Kenny Stafford WR-X 32 21 272 65.6% 7.8% 62.5% 8.0
David Fluellen RB 6'0, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) 25 16 155 64.0% 6.1% 52.0% 5.4
Morgan Williams RB 19 17 167 89.5% 4.6% 52.6% 10.9
Jerome Jones TE 17 10 155 58.8% 4.1% 41.2% 8.7
James Green WR-X 6'3, 200 Jr. **** (5.8) 17 9 118 52.9% 4.1% 70.6% 5.8
Danny Noble TE 11 4 75 36.4% 2.7% 54.5% 2.4
Cordale Scott WR-Z 6'4, 220 Sr. **** (5.8) 10 5 78 50.0% 2.4% 50.0% 0.5
Corey Jones WR 5'9, 165 Fr. *** (5.7)






Armani Miller WR 6'1, 180 Fr. *** (5.7)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mike VanDerMeulen LT 50 career starts, 2011 1st All-MAC
Zac Kerin C 6'5, 294 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MAC
John Morookian RT 48 career starts
Phillipkeith Manley LG 26 career starts
Greg Mancz RG 6'5, 280 So. *** (5.5) 13 career starts
Josh Hendershot LT 6'4, 275 So. ** (5.4)
Jeff Myers LG 6'3, 280 So. ** (5.4)
Erik Carlson C 6'2, 283 Jr. NR
Robert Lisowski RG 6'4, 292 So. *** (5.5)
A.J. Lindeman RT 6'6, 300 Sr. NR

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 76 35 28 42
RUSHING 41 23 33 27
PASSING 106 42 29 58
Standard Downs 76 74 75
Passing Downs 58 41 59
Redzone 110 109 110
Q1 Rk 37 1st Down Rk 47
Q2 Rk 65 2nd Down Rk 99
Q3 Rk 37 3rd Down Rk 27
Q4 Rk 110
Adj. Line Yards Rk 21
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 98

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Johnie Roberts NT 13 29.5 4.1% 4.5 1 3 1
Malcolm Riley DE 13 27.0 3.8% 7.5 4 1 2 1
Johnathan Lamb DT 13 24.5 3.4% 5 3 1 1 1
Jayrone Elliott DE 6'3, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 22.0 3.1% 1.5 1 1 2
Christian Smith DE 6'2, 260 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 20.0 2.8% 5.5 2 1 1
T.J. Fatinikun DE 6'2, 250 Sr. ** (5.2) 7 18.5 2.6% 7.5 2.5 1 1
Elijah Jones NT 6'2, 295 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 18.5 2.6% 3
Ben Pike DE 6'3, 266 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 9.5 1.3% 5 5 1 1
Danny Farr DT 6'5, 295 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 7.5 1.0% 2.5 1 2
Treyvon Hester DT 6'3, 290 Fr. *** (5.7)






Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Robert Bell WLB 6'0, 227 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 58.0 8.1% 4.5 1 1 1 4 3
Dan Molls MLB 6'1, 222 Sr. ** (5.3) 7 51.0 7.1% 3.5 1 3
Charles Rancifer SLB 10 42.5 5.9% 4 1.5 2 1
Terrell Anderson MLB 13 42.0 5.8% 7.5 1
Byron Best SLB 5'9, 200 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 15.0 2.1% 1 1
Ray Bush LB 6'3, 220 So. ** (5.2) 10 13.5 1.9%
James Gordon WLB 6'3, 210 So. *** (5.5) 10 6.5 0.9% 1
Vladimir Emilien SLB 6'1, 204 Jr. **** (5.8)


Jaylen Coleman LB 6'1, 220 Fr. *** (5.6)


Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Desmond Marrow CB 13 67.0 9.3% 1.5 3 15 1
Mark Singer (2010^) S 6'1, 194 So. ** (5.0) 13 53.0 7.4%
2 3
1
Diauntae Morrow FS 13 51.5 7.2% 2 1 6 1
Jermaine Robinson SS 6'3, 188 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 44.5 6.2% 6.5 3 9 2
Taikwon Paige CB 12 41.0 5.7% 3 2 7 2
Ross Madison FS 6'1, 193 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 20.5 2.8% 1 2
Kishon Wilcher CB 5'7, 168 So. *** (5.5) 13 19.0 2.6% 1 1 2
Junior Sylvestre DB 6'0, 195 So. ** (5.2) 13 16.5 2.3% 1
Keith Suggs CB 5'10, 175 So. ** (5.3) 12 9.5 1.3%
Anthony Washington CB 11 7.0 1.0% 0.5 1
Cameron Cole DB 6'0, 185 Jr. *** (5.5)

^ Singer missed 2011 with injury.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Vince Penza 6'1, 201 Jr. 49 37.8 3 11 13 49.0%
Bill Claus 12 35.4 3 2 3 41.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jeremiah Detmer 5'8, 170 So. 94 58.8 6 6.4%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Ryan Casano 66-67 10-10 100.0% 0-3 0.0%
Jeremiah Detmer 5'8, 170 So. 0-0 2-2 100.0% 3-4 75.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Eric Page KR 34 25.2 1
David Fluellen KR 6'0, 215 Jr. 8 10.5 0
Bernard Reedy KR 5'9, 175 Jr. 7 14.0 0
Eric Page PR 18 10.9 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 60
Net Punting 110
Net Kickoffs 108
Touchback Pct 99
Field Goal Pct 27
Kick Returns Avg 111
Punt Returns Avg 17

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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