2012 Stanford Cardinal Football: Statistical Profile

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Confused? See the glossary at the bottom.

2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 9
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep San Jose State 57-3 W 31.8 - 11.1 W
10-Sep at Duke 44-14 W 34.2 - 26.8 W
17-Sep at Arizona 37-10 W 29.3 - 25.4 W
1-Oct UCLA 45-19 W 35.2 - 29.9 W
8-Oct Colorado 48-7 W 31.9 - 23.7 W
15-Oct at Washington State 44-14 W 30.4 - 20.5 W
22-Oct Washington 65-21 W 35.9 - 27.1 W
29-Oct at USC 56-48 W 34.0 - 29.3 W
5-Nov at Oregon State 38-13 W 32.2 - 30.0 W
12-Nov Oregon 30-53 L 31.7 - 27.8 W
19-Nov California 31-28 W 34.1 - 29.6 W
26-Nov Notre Dame 28-14 W 31.2 - 22.0 W
2-Jan vs. Oklahoma State 38-41 L 35.0 - 29.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 43.2 7 21.9 30
Adj. Points Per Game 32.8 7 25.6 31

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
31-Aug San Jose State 110
8-Sep Duke 75
15-Sep USC 6
27-Sep at Washington 59
6-Oct Arizona 67
13-Oct at Notre Dame 11
20-Oct at California 55
27-Oct Washington State 97
3-Nov at Colorado 101
10-Nov Oregon State 74
17-Nov at Oregon 5
24-Nov at UCLA 58
Five-Year F/+ Rk 21
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 16
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +5 / +10.2
TO Luck/Game -2.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -4.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 8 11 7 13
RUSHING 18 20 13 30
PASSING 22 9 9 11
Standard Downs 8 9 11
Passing Downs 27 16 31
Redzone 29 24 30
Q1 Rk 15 1st Down Rk 9
Q2 Rk 9 2nd Down Rk 19
Q3 Rk 16 3rd Down Rk 19
Q4 Rk 34
Adj. Line Yards Rk 9
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 18

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Andrew Luck 288 404 3,517 71.3% 37 10 11 2.7% 8.3
Brett Nottingham 6'4, 215 So. **** (5.9) 5 8 78 62.5% 1 0 0 0.0% 9.8
Robbie Picazo 6'3, 205 Jr. NR 3 3 15 100.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 5.0
Josh Nunes 6'4, 208 Jr. **** (5.8)








Kevin Hogan 6'4, 216 RSFr. *** (5.7)








Evan Crower 6'5, 205 RSFr. *** (5.5)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Stepfan Taylor RB 5'11, 210 Sr. **** (5.8) 242 1,330 5.5 2.0 10 -2.4
Tyler Gaffney RB 6'1, 216 Sr. **** (5.8) 74 449 6.1 2.2 7 +11.7
Anthony Wilkerson RB 6'1, 217 Jr. **** (5.8) 56 282 5.0 1.8 3 +0.7
Jeremy Stewart RB 55 257 4.7 1.6 9 +8.6
Andrew Luck QB 36 230 6.4 1.8 2 +4.1
Geoff Meinken FB 6'4, 255 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 90 7.5 3.7 0 -1.0
Ryan Hewitt FB 6'4, 242 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 35 3.5 0.3 0 -0.6
Ricky Seale RB 5'9, 201 So. **** (5.8) 6 23 3.8 0.6 0 -1.3
Kelsey Young RB 5'10, 190 RSFr. **** (5.8)





Barry Sanders, Jr. RB 5'11, 190 Fr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Griff Whalen WR 82 56 749 68.3% 20.5% 59.8% 9.0
Chris Owusu WR 51 35 376 68.6% 12.8% 72.5% 6.8
Coby Fleener TE 51 34 667 66.7% 12.8% 70.6% 12.8
Ryan Hewitt FB 6'4, 242 Jr. *** (5.5) 37 34 282 91.9% 9.3% 81.1% 9.8
Zach Ertz TE 6'6, 252 Jr. *** (5.7) 36 27 346 75.0% 9.0% 63.9% 10.0
Ty Montgomery WR 6'2, 205 So. **** (5.8) 33 24 355 72.7% 8.3% 69.7% 10.8
Levine Toilolo TE 6'8, 262 Jr. **** (5.8) 32 25 343 78.1% 8.0% 68.8% 12.2
Stepfan Taylor RB 5'11, 210 Sr. **** (5.8) 27 25 182 92.6% 6.8% 48.1% 8.3
Tyler Gaffney RB 6'1, 216 Sr. **** (5.8) 14 12 79 85.7% 3.5% 71.4% 6.0
Drew Terrell WR 5'11, 181 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 8 96 66.7% 3.0% 66.7% 7.1
Jamal-Rashad Patterson WR 6'3, 208 Sr. **** (5.8) 5 3 38 60.0% 1.3% 100.0% 3.7
Jemari Roberts WR 6'3, 222 Sr. **** (5.9)






Jordan Pratt WR 6'3, 208 So. NR






Kodi Whitfeld WR 6'2, 197 Fr. **** (5.8)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
David DeCastro RG 39 career starts, 2011 1st All-Pac-12
Jonathan Martin LT 37 career starts, 2011 1st All-Pac-12
David Yankey LG 6'5, 300 So. *** (5.7) 13 career starts
Sam Schwartzstein C 6'3, 290 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 career starts
Cameron Fleming RT 6'6, 307 So. *** (5.7) 11 career starts
Tyler Mabry LT 2 career starts
Kevin Danser RG 6'6, 295 Jr. *** (5.7)
Khalil Wilkes RG 6'3, 290 Jr. *** (5.7)
Matt Bentler RG
Dillon Bonnell LG 6'4, 276 So. **** (5.8)
Cole Underwood RG 6'4, 289 So. *** (5.7)
Conor McFadden C 6'3, 275 So. ** (5.3)
Brendon Austin LT 6'6, 302 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Andrus Peat OL 6'7, 305 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Kyle Murphy OL 6'7, 275 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Joshua Garrett OL 6'5, 295 Fr. **** (6.0)
Graham Shuler OL 6'5, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)
Nick Davidson OL 6'6, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)
Brandon Fanaika OL 6'3, 293 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 28 22 15 31
RUSHING 4 25 17 39
PASSING 95 20 15 26
Standard Downs 16 17 22
Passing Downs 39 14 55
Redzone 36 41 38
Q1 Rk 3 1st Down Rk 13
Q2 Rk 54 2nd Down Rk 49
Q3 Rk 10 3rd Down Rk 4
Q4 Rk 56
Adj. Line Yards Rk 17
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 1

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ben Gardner DE 6'4, 273 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 29.0 4.5% 10 4.5 2 1 1
Matthew Masifilo DE 13 23.0 3.6% 8 2.5 4 1 2
Terrence Stephens NG 6'2, 294 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 8.5 1.3% 4 0.5 1 1
David Parry NG 6'2, 304 So. NR 13 4.5 0.7% 1.5
Henry Anderson DE 6'6, 275 So. *** (5.7) 13 3.5 0.5% 1
Josh Mauro DE 6'6, 269 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 3.0 0.5% 2 2 1
Jacob Gowan DE 6'3, 256 Jr. ** (5.4) 4 1.5 0.2%
Charlie Hopkins DE 6'6, 270 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Anthony Hayes NG 6'3, 297 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Aziz Shittu DE 6'3, 275 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Jordan Watkins NG 6'5, 265 Fr. **** (5.8)
Luke Kaumatule DE 6'7, 268 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Shayne Skov (2010^) ILB 6'3, 251 Sr. **** (6.0) 11 67.0 10.2% 10.5 7.5 5 2 1
Jarek Lancaster ILB 6'1, 238 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 57.0 8.8% 7 3.5 3 1
A.J. Tarpley ILB 6'2, 235 So. *** (5.6) 13 42.5 6.6% 4 1.5 1 4 2 1
Chase Thomas OLB 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 42.5 6.6% 17.5 8.5 5
Trent Murphy OLB 6'6, 260 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 32.5 5.0% 10 6.5 1
Max Bergen ILB 13 23.5 3.6% 3 1.5
Blake Lueders OLB 6'5, 256 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 14.5 2.2% 3 2 1
Joe Hemschoot ILB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.6) 12 9.0 1.4% 1
James Vaughters ILB 6'2, 243 So. **** (5.9) 13 8.5 1.3% 4 1 1
Alex Debniak OLB 6'2, 233 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 7.5 1.2% 1
Brent Etiz ILB 6'1, 215 Jr. NR 7 5.0 0.8% 1 1
Kevin Anderson LB 6'4, 245 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Noor Davis LB 6'4, 233 Fr. **** (5.9)

^ Skov played in just three games in 2011.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michael Thomas FS 13 53.5 8.3% 3.5 1 3 5 1
Delano Howell SS 10 45.0 7.0% 4 1 1
Johnson Bademosi CB 13 42.0 6.5% 0.5 7 2
Terrence Brown CB 6'1, 176 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 37.5 5.8% 1 1 5 1
Devon Carrington SS 6'1, 197 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 25.0 3.9% 3 2
Jordan Richards FS 5'11, 199 So. *** (5.6) 13 23.0 3.6% 1
Barry Browning CB 6'1, 178 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 16.0 2.5% 0.5 1 1
Harold Bernard CB 6'2, 186 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 15.5 2.4% 1.5 1.5 1
Myles Muagututia FS 6'2, 206 Sr. NR 13 8.5 1.3% 1
Usua Amanam CB 5'10, 173 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 8.0 1.2%
Cory Gatewood CB 13 7.5 1.2% 1 3 1
Ed Reynolds (2010^) SS 6'2, 204 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 5.5 0.8%
Brent Seals SS 6'1, 189 Sr. ** (5.1) 1 2.0 0.3%
Kyle Olugbode SS 6'1, 195 Jr. NR 4 1.0 0.2%
Wayne Lyons CB 6'1, 194 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Alex Carter DB 6'0, 193 Fr. **** (6.0)

^ Reynolds missed 2011 with injury.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
David Green 34 41.7 5 11 12 67.6%
Daniel Zychlinski 6'3, 203 Sr. 3 31.3 0 1 1 66.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jordan Williamson 5'11, 179 So. 65 66.5 8 12.3%
Ben Rhyne 6'2, 195 Jr. 18 59.8 1 5.6%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jordan Williamson 5'11, 179 So. 54-56 11-13 84.6% 2-6 33.3%
Eric Whitaker 5'9, 177 Jr. 14-15 4-4 100.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Ty Montgomery KR 6'2, 205 So. 27 25.2 1
Chris Owusu KR 8 22.1 0
Jeremy Stewart KR 6 13.2 0
Drew Terrell PR 5'11, 179 Sr. 18 12.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 63
Net Punting 67
Net Kickoffs 37
Touchback Pct 86
Field Goal Pct 54
Kick Returns Avg 46
Punt Returns Avg 23

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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