2012 Southern Miss Golden Eagles Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 11-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 20
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Louisiana Tech 19-17 W 24.5 - 21.0 W
10-Sep at Marshall 20-26 L 21.3 - 29.4 L
17-Sep SE Louisiana 52-6 W 30.4 - 23.0 W
24-Sep at Virginia 30-24 W 27.2 - 27.1 W
1-Oct Rice 48-24 W 31.8 - 25.0 W
8-Oct at Navy 63-35 W 34.6 - 32.2 W
22-Oct SMU 27-3 W 32.6 - 24.5 W
29-Oct at UTEP 31-13 W 26.8 - 21.8 W
5-Nov at East Carolina 48-28 W 25.6 - 27.7 L
12-Nov Central Florida 30-29 W 33.2 - 27.0 W
17-Nov at UAB 31-34 L 28.1 - 32.4 L
26-Nov Memphis 44-7 W 28.0 - 17.1 W
3-Dec at Houston 49-28 W 31.1 - 19.7 W
24-Dec vs Nevada 24-17 W 22.9 - 19.2 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 36.9 14 20.8 26
Adj. Points Per Game 28.4 48 24.8 22

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Nebraska 24
15-Sep East Carolina 82
22-Sep at Western Kentucky 88
29-Sep Louisville 50
6-Oct Boise State 39
13-Oct at Central Florida 49
20-Oct Marshall 94
27-Oct at Rice 112
3-Nov UAB 115
10-Nov at SMU 65
17-Nov UTEP 104
24-Nov at Memphis 117
Five-Year F/+ Rk 48
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 65
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -2 / +3.9
TO Luck/Game -2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -4.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 17 56 66 52
RUSHING 20 74 80 75
PASSING 34 46 55 39
Standard Downs 71 72 70
Passing Downs 34 19 47
Redzone 86 88 85
Q1 Rk 33 1st Down Rk 72
Q2 Rk 70 2nd Down Rk 65
Q3 Rk 87 3rd Down Rk 57
Q4 Rk 52
Adj. Line Yards Rk 43
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 26

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Austin Davis 286 475 3,496 60.2% 30 11 17 3.5% 6.8
Arsenio Favor 6'3, 239 So. ** (5.4) 1 3 8 33.3% 0 0 0 0.0% 2.7
Chris Campbell 6'4, 215 Jr. ** (5.3)







Ricky Lloyd 6'2, 198 RSFr. *** (5.5)







Cole Weeks 6'0, 194 RSFr. NR







Anthony Alford 6'1, 205 Fr. **** (5.8)







Kyle Sloter 6'5, 200 Fr. ** (5.4)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jamal Woodyard RB 5'8, 202 So. *** (5.5) 110 732 6.7 3.2 3 +1.2
Austin Davis QB 93 480 5.2 1.9 4 -1.9
Tracy Lampley WR 5'9, 168 Sr. *** (5.6) 91 463 5.1 1.8 3 -3.6
Desmond Johnson RB 5'11, 200 Sr. *** (5.5) 75 424 5.7 1.7 2 +2.3
Kendrick Hardy RB 6'0, 219 Jr. **** (5.8) 72 426 5.9 2.1 2 -0.5
Jeremy Hester RB 5'6, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 59 291 4.9 1.6 2 0.0
Arsenio Favor QB 6'3, 239 So. ** (5.4) 12 41 3.4 0.9 0 -2.0

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Kelvin Bolden WR 85 58 698 68.2% 18.3% 54.1% 7.9
Ryan Balentine WR 73 49 742 67.1% 15.7% 47.9% 9.6
Tracy Lampley WR 5'9, 168 Sr. *** (5.6) 68 47 574 69.1% 14.7% 55.9% 8.4
Dominique Sullivan WR 6'4, 208 Jr. *** (5.6) 61 32 463 52.5% 13.1% 47.5% 5.1
Quentin Pierce WR 5'11, 193 Sr. ** (5.4) 33 17 166 51.5% 7.1% 57.6% 3.0
Jamal Woodyard RB 5'8, 202 So. *** (5.5) 28 17 159 60.7% 6.0% 39.3% 4.5
William Spight WR 25 15 159 60.0% 5.4% 64.0% 5.0
Chris Briggs WR 6'4, 202 So. *** (5.6) 22 11 153 50.0% 4.7% 40.9% 4.0
Francisco Llanos WR 5'8, 171 Jr. NR 22 10 173 45.5% 4.7% 77.3% 3.5
Kendrick Hardy RB 6'0, 219 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 10 46 83.3% 2.6% 66.7% 4.9
Cooper Harrington WR 6'0, 189 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Keithon Redding WR 6'0, 190 Fr. *** (5.7)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Lamar Holmes LT 19 career starts, 2011 1st All-CUSA
Joe Duhon LG 6'2, 292 Sr. ** (5.3) 24 career starts, 2011 2nd All-CUSA
Jason Weaver RT 6'5, 305 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 career starts, 2011 2nd All-CUSA
Darius Barnes RG 6'4, 329 Sr. ** (5.3) 23 career starts
Austin Quattrochi C 6'3, 292 Sr. ** (5.3) 15 career starts
Thomas Edenfield RT 9 career starts
Ed Preston RG 6'4, 307 Jr. ** (5.3) 1 career start
Dyron White LT 6'5, 314 Sr. NR
Taylor Peterson LG 6'4, 290 So. ** (5.2)
Jonathan Guerry C 6'4, 294 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 29 23 24 23
RUSHING 24 20 31 18
PASSING 62 25 23 29
Standard Downs 22 25 23
Passing Downs 52 59 48
Redzone 20 51 9
Q1 Rk 29 1st Down Rk 22
Q2 Rk 45 2nd Down Rk 38
Q3 Rk 19 3rd Down Rk 24
Q4 Rk 41
Adj. Line Yards Rk 7
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 72

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jamie Collins BAN 6'5, 239 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 78.0 9.4% 19.5 6.5 1 8 1 1
Cordarro Law DE 14 50.0 6.0% 22 9.5 4 4
Deddrick Jones DT 14 26.0 3.1% 6.5 2.5 1 1
Terrance Pope NT 13 22.5 2.7% 5.5 1.5
Khyri Thornton NT 6'3, 283 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 18.0 2.2% 9 1.5 1 1 1
Dasman McCullum DE 6'3, 238 So. *** (5.6) 14 16.0 1.9% 3 0.5 2
Brandon Francesconi BAN 6'3, 243 Sr. NR 14 12.0 1.4% 1.5
Khalid Wilson DT 6'1, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 11.5 1.4% 2 0.5
Andrew Burns DT 11 6.0 0.7% 1.5
Octavius Thomas DE 6'3, 239 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 4.5 0.5% 1 1
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT 6'3, 306 So. ** (5.4) 6 1.5 0.2% 1.5
Nic Bekkers DE 6'5, 234 So. NR

Michael Smith DE 6'5, 249 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Anthony Wilson DE 6'3, 235 Jr. *** (5.5)

Adam Williams DE 6'3, 255 Jr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ronnie Thornton WLB 14 79.0 9.5% 8.5 1 2 3 1
Jeremy Snowden MLB 14 45.0 5.4% 6 1.5 4
Korey Williams LB 4 24.0 2.9% 3.5 1 3 2
Tim Green WLB 14 19.5 2.4% 2 1
Alan Howze MLB 6'2, 219 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 15.0 1.8% 1 1
Lelland Ducksworth LB 6'1, 215 Fr. *** (5.6)

Calvin Perry LB 6'2, 220 Fr. *** (5.5)

Dylan Reda LB 6'3, 235 Jr. ** (5.4)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jacorius Cotton SS 5'9, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 76.0 9.2% 1.5 2 5 1 1
Deron Wilson CB 5'10, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 61.5 7.4% 1 4 13
Marquese Wheaton CB 14 47.0 5.7% 2.5 3 10 1
Kendrick Presley FS 12 47.0 5.7% 0.5 1 3
Emmanuel Johnson SPUR 5'11, 175 So. *** (5.5) 12 30.0 3.6% 3 1 3 1 1
Martez Thompson SS 6'0, 201 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 29.5 3.6% 0.5 4 1
Jerrion Johnson SPUR 6'1, 195 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 23.0 2.8% 2 4
Cameron O'Neal SPUR 14 20.5 2.5% 1 2 2
Alex Smith FS 5'11, 193 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 13.0 1.6% 1 2
Alexander Walters CB 5'10, 166 Jr. ** (5.4) 14 4.5 0.5% 1 1
DaQuinton Dean DB 6'0, 200 RSFr. NR

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Peter Boehme 5'11, 206 Sr. 46 43.0 7 5 16 45.7%
Danny Hrapmann 10 46.6 1 4 4 80.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Danny Hrapmann 98 63.7 16 16.3%
Corey Acosta 5'10, 186 So. 3 56 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Danny Hrapmann 61-62 16-18 88.9% 7-16 43.8%
Corey Acosta 5'10, 186 So. 0-0 1-1 100.0% 1-1 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tracy Lampley KR 5'9, 168 Sr. 19 21.3 0
Tray Becton-Martin KR 5'10, 166 So. 14 25.1 0
Jeremy Hester KR 5'6, 180 Jr. 11 27.6 0
Tracy Lampley PR 5'9, 168 Sr. 31 11.5 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 20
Net Punting 18
Net Kickoffs 65
Touchback Pct 54
Field Goal Pct 60
Kick Returns Avg 45
Punt Returns Avg 15

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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