2012 South Florida Bulls Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 9-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 40
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Notre Dame 23-20 W 23.1 - 29.1 L
10-Sep Ball State 37-7 W 26.5 - 15.9 W
17-Sep Florida A&M 70-17 W 30.2 - 23.9 W
24-Sep UTEP 52-24 W 35.8 - 26.3 W
29-Sep at Pittsburgh 17-44 L 29.2 - 32.8 L
15-Oct at Connecticut 10-16 L 27.4 - 24.4 W
22-Oct Cincinnati 34-37 L 34.3 - 30.6 W
5-Nov at Rutgers 17-20 L 28.1 - 22.7 W
11-Nov at Syracuse 37-17 W 33.7 - 29.2 W
19-Nov Miami 3-6 L 23.5 - 21.5 W
25-Nov Louisville 24-34 L 26.8 - 30.4 L
1-Dec West Virginia 27-30 L 25.3 - 24.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 29.3 48 22.7 37
Adj. Points Per Game 28.7 45 25.9 33

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Chattanooga NR
8-Sep at Nevada 63
13-Sep Rutgers 40
22-Sep at Ball State 89
29-Sep Florida State 8
6-Oct at Temple 73
20-Oct at Louisville 50
27-Oct Syracuse 78
3-Nov Connecticut 53
17-Nov at Miami 45
23-Nov at Cincinnati 44
1-Dec Pittsburgh 41
Five-Year F/+ Rk 32
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 51
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +2 / +1.5
TO Luck/Game 0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 30 34 16 53
RUSHING 32 9 2 29
PASSING 42 62 61 65
Standard Downs 43 16 63
Passing Downs 61 63 58
Redzone 82 48 96
Q1 Rk 26 1st Down Rk 28
Q2 Rk 34 2nd Down Rk 57
Q3 Rk 64 3rd Down Rk 93
Q4 Rk 76
Adj. Line Yards Rk 15
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 14

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
B.J. Daniels 6'0, 217 Sr. **** (5.8) 215 365 2,585 58.9% 13 7 13 3.4% 6.6
Bobby Eveld 6'5, 206 Jr. *** (5.5) 37 67 354 55.2% 1 4 2 2.9% 4.9
Matt Floyd 6'0, 201 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Darrell Scott RB 153 814 5.3 1.9 5 +0.3
Demetris Murray RB 6'0, 210 Sr. *** (5.5) 121 503 4.2 1.2 8 +3.3
B.J. Daniels QB 6'0, 217 Sr. **** (5.8) 119 695 5.8 2.9 6 +9.4
Marcus Shaw RB 5'9, 182 Jr. *** (5.6) 20 38 1.9 1.1 2 -2.3
Lindsey Lamar RB 5'9, 172 Sr. *** (5.7) 17 150 8.8 4.0 0 +2.6
Bradley Battles RB 5'9, 206 Jr. **** (5.8) 3 5 1.7 0.0 0 -1.0
Michael Pierre RB 5'11, 200 Jr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Sterling Griffin WR 6'0, 189 Jr. *** (5.5) 58 43 530 74.1% 14.1% 65.5% 9.5
Andre Davis WR 6'1, 200 So. *** (5.6) 55 22 273 40.0% 13.3% 58.2% 1.8
Deonte Welch WR 6'0, 204 So. *** (5.5) 54 30 411 55.6% 13.1% 59.3% 5.7
Victor Marc WR 5'11, 220 Sr. *** (5.6) 48 34 362 70.8% 11.7% 62.5% 7.5
Evan Landi TE 6'3, 227 Sr. ** (5.3) 40 29 297 72.5% 9.7% 70.0% 8.3
Demetris Murray RB 6'0, 210 Sr. *** (5.5) 27 18 205 66.7% 6.6% 48.1% 6.7
A.J. Love WR 22 9 122 40.9% 5.3% 68.2% 1.3
Andreas Shields TE 6'4, 246 Sr. ** (5.4) 20 11 144 55.0% 4.9% 55.0% 5.3
Darrell Scott RB 19 15 169 78.9% 4.6% 36.8% 8.5
Lindsey Lamar RB 5'9, 172 Sr. *** (5.7) 14 11 157 78.6% 3.4% 71.4% 14.4
Stephen Bravo-Brown WR 5'10, 178 Jr. NR 13 4 34 30.8% 3.2% 76.9% -0.7
Terrence Mitchell WR 5'10, 158 Jr. **** (5.9) 9 7 60 77.8% 2.2% 55.6% 7.3
Ruben Gonzalez WR 6'3, 197 So. *** (5.6) 8 5 72 62.5% 1.9% 62.5% 6.7
Mike McFarland TE 6'5, 247 So. *** (5.7) 2 1 8 50.0% 0.5% 50.0% 4.0
D'Vario Montgomery WR 6'3, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)






Sean Price TE 6'4, 232 Fr. **** (5.8)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jeremiah Warren LG 38 career starts; 2011 2nd All-Big East
Chaz Hine C 37 career starts
Mark Popek LT 6'7, 290 Sr. ** (5.2) 21 career starts
Danous Estenor RG 6'3, 297 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 career starts
Quinterrius Eatmon RT 6'6, 304 So. *** (5.6) 12 career starts
Kevin McCaskill C 1 career start
Darren Powe RT
Damien Edwards LG 6'5, 322 Sr. NR
John McGhin LG 6'4, 321 Jr. ** (5.3)
Darrell Williams LT 6'5, 275 So. *** (5.6)
Lawrence Martin RG 6'3, 309 Jr. ** (5.4)
Steven Jacques RG 6'3, 304 Jr. *** (5.6)
Austin Reiter C 6'3, 278 So. ** (5.2)
Max Lang RT 6'5, 282 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Brynjar Gudmundsson LG 6'4, 293 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Chandlor Mathews OL 6'5, 290 Jr. *** (5.5)
Lawrence Martin OL 6'4, 280 Jr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 39 50 70 34
RUSHING 15 28 54 16
PASSING 83 71 79 61
Standard Downs 40 50 30
Passing Downs 46 45 44
Redzone 32 31 35
Q1 Rk 32 1st Down Rk 56
Q2 Rk 34 2nd Down Rk 18
Q3 Rk 51 3rd Down Rk 51
Q4 Rk 60
Adj. Line Yards Rk 46
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 50

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ryne Giddins DE 6'3, 261 Jr. **** (6.0) 12 34.0 5.1% 11 5.5 1 3 1
Cory Grissom DT 6'2, 321 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 27.5 4.1% 6 1.5 1 1
Elkino Watson DT 6'2, 288 So. **** (5.8) 12 25.5 3.8% 9 1
Keith McCaskill DT 12 24.5 3.7% 8 4 1
Patrick Hampton DE 12 19.0 2.8% 4 0.5 1 2
Julius Forte DE 6'2, 255 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 17.0 2.5% 6 3 1
Claude Davis DE 11 13.5 2.0% 7 6 1 2 1
Luke Sager DT 6'3, 277 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 8.5 1.3% 3 1 2 1
Anthony Hill DE 6'4, 282 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 6.0 0.9% 2 1 2 1
Tevin Mims DE 6'3, 250 Jr. *** (5.5)
Todd Chandler DT 6'0, 306 So. **** (5.8)
Clayion Nelson DT 6'3, 269 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Eric Lee DE 6'3, 234 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
DeDe Lattimore WILL 6'1, 234 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 78.0 11.7% 13 7 1 2 2 1
Mike Lanaris MIKE 6'0, 235 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 66.0 9.9% 4.5 1 1 2 2
Sam Barrington SAM 6'1, 234 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 58.5 8.8% 6.5 2.5 1 2 1
Mike Jeune WILL 6'0, 227 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 20.0 3.0% 4 2 1 1 1
George Baker WLB 5'11, 182 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 13.5 2.0% 1
Curtis Weatherspoon SAM 7 8.5 1.3% 1
Armando Sanchez LB 6'0, 218 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 6.0 0.9%
Reshard Cliett SAM 6'2, 213 So. ** (5.4) 9 4.5 0.7% 1.5 1 1
Ruben Garcia MIKE 6'0, 232 So. NR 5 2.5 0.4%
Hans Louis MLB 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.4) 2 2.0 0.3% 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jerrell Young FS 12 45.0 6.7% 3 2 2 1
Kayvon Webster CB 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 42.5 6.4% 1 2 7 1 1
Quenton Washington CB 11 39.5 5.9% 2.5 1 8
Jon Lejiste SS 6'0, 201 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 38.5 5.8% 2 1 1 2 1 3
Mark Joyce FS 5'10, 195 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 18.5 2.8% 1 3 1
George Baker CB 5'11, 180 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 13.5 2.0% 1 1
JaQuez Jenkins SS 6'2, 183 Jr. *** (5.7) 9 11.0 1.6% 1 2
Ernie Tabuteau SS 5'10, 180 Sr. NR 4 2.5 0.4% 2
Fidel Montgomery CB 6'0, 186 Jr. *** (5.5)
Joshua Brown CB 6'0, 193 Jr. ** (5.4)
Trevon Griffin FS 6'0, 211 So. NR
Kenneth Durden CB 6'0, 176 RSFr. *** (5.5)








Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Justin Brockhaus-Kann 6'2, 224 Sr. 62 36.3 4 30 20 80.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Marvin Kloss 6'0, 203 So. 71 64.9 9 12.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Maikon Bonani 5'10, 190 Sr. 42-42 13-15 86.7% 6-11 54.5%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Lindsey Lamar KR 5'9, 172 Sr. 49 20.4 0
Marcus Shaw KR 5'9, 182 Jr. 6 28.7 0
Terrence Mitchell PR 5'10, 160 Jr. 13 5.2 0
Victor Marc PR 5'11, 220 Sr. 13 7.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 86
Net Punting 100
Net Kickoffs 83
Touchback Pct 68
Field Goal Pct 44
Kick Returns Avg 80
Punt Returns Avg 83

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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