2012 SMU Mustangs Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 55
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
4-Sep at Texas A&M 14-46 L 24.9 - 33.2 L
10-Sep UTEP 28-17 W 26.6 - 22.5 W
17-Sep Northwestern State 40-7 W 26.4 - 15.6 W
24-Sep at Memphis 42-0 W 32.4 - 8.1 W
1-Oct at TCU 40-33 W 30.8 - 27.0 W
15-Oct Central Florida 38-17 W 45.7 - 26.6 W
22-Oct at Southern Miss 3-27 L 27.6 - 29.0 L
29-Oct at Tulsa 7-38 L 19.7 - 28.6 L
5-Nov Tulane 45-24 W 31.6 - 27.3 W
12-Nov Navy 17-24 L 25.2 - 28.9 L
19-Nov at Houston 7-37 L 23.8 - 25.9 L
26-Nov Rice 27-24 W 26.2 - 19.7 W
7-Jan vs Pittsburgh 28-6 W 30.1 - 19.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 25.8 69 23.1 40
Adj. Points Per Game 28.5 46 24.0 16

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Baylor 28
8-Sep Stephen F. Austin NR
15-Sep Texas A&M 16
29-Sep TCU 21
6-Oct at UTEP 104
13-Oct at Tulane 111
20-Oct Houston 29
27-Oct Memphis 117
3-Nov at Central Florida 49
10-Nov Southern Miss 46
17-Nov at Rice 112
24-Nov Tulsa 47
Five-Year F/+ Rk 81
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 57
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -16 / -5.2
TO Luck/Game -4.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (3, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 58 50 55 46
RUSHING 101 25 54 14
PASSING 24 63 53 70
Standard Downs 55 61 54
Passing Downs 68 62 76
Redzone 92 62 97
Q1 Rk 10 1st Down Rk 45
Q2 Rk 87 2nd Down Rk 63
Q3 Rk 105 3rd Down Rk 67
Q4 Rk 48
Adj. Line Yards Rk 32
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 40

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
J.J. McDermott 272 455 3,421 59.8% 17 16 27 5.6% 6.8
Kyle Padron


9 20 152 45.0% 0 3 3 13.0% 6.1
Garrett Gilbert (2010^) 6'4, 219 Sr. ***** (6.1) 260 441 2,744 59.0% 10 17 18 3.9% 5.7
Stephen Kaiser 6'3, 217 So. *** (5.6)






Conner Preston 6'0, 200 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Neal Burcham 6'3, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)






^ Gilbert transferred from Texas last season and should be eligible to play immediately this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Zach Line RB 6'1, 230 Sr. ** (5.1) 208 1,224 5.9 2.3 17 +25.2
Jared Williams RB 5'9, 195 So. NR 43 188 4.4 1.8 1 -2.2
Rishad Wimbley RB 6'0, 280 So. *** (5.5) 39 170 4.4 1.4 4 +2.2
J.J. McDermott QB 13 38 2.9 1.1 1 -1.9

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Darius Johnson WR-H 5'10, 175 Sr. *** (5.7) 127 79 1,118 62.2% 28.3% 63.0% 7.7
Cole Beasley WR-Y 119 86 1,040 72.3% 26.5% 60.5% 8.9
Terrance Wilkerson WR-Z 73 44 561 60.3% 16.3% 64.4% 7.0
Der'rikk Thompson WR-X 5'11, 185 So. *** (5.5) 67 30 411 44.8% 14.9% 61.2% 2.7
Jeremy Johnson WR-H 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.6) 23 16 146 69.6% 5.1% 73.9% 5.6
Zach Line RB 19 15 139 78.9% 4.2% 63.2% 8.1
Keenan Holman WR-X 6'1, 185 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 5 108 45.5% 2.4% 36.4% 10.7
Gehrig Dieter WR 6'3, 200 Fr. *** (5.6)
Daijuan Stewart WR 5'10, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kelvin Beachum LT 52 career starts, 2011 1st All-CUSA
Bryce Tennison C 44 career starts
J.T. Brooks RT 33 career starts
Josh LeRibeus LG 28 career starts
Kelly Turner RG 28 career starts
Blake McJunkin C 6'2, 300 Sr. ** (5.2) 26 career starts
Bryan Collins LG 6'3, 313 Sr. ** (5.3) 10 career starts
Ben Gottschalk LT 6'5, 275 Jr. *** (5.6)
Jordan Free OL 6'2, 302 Sr. ** (5.1)
Ashton Duhe OL 6'2, 315 So *** (5.5)
Kris Weeks OL 6'5, 285 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Taylor Lasecki C 6'3, 296 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Seaver Myers OL 6'6, 290 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 26 28 31 29
RUSHING 23 30 21 42
PASSING 55 27 43 22
Standard Downs 32 32 35
Passing Downs 26 21 30
Redzone 9 17 5
Q1 Rk 27 1st Down Rk 17
Q2 Rk 14 2nd Down Rk 50
Q3 Rk 53 3rd Down Rk 26
Q4 Rk 57
Adj. Line Yards Rk 32
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 22

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Taylor Thompson DE 13 32.0 4.2% 9.5 8 6 1
Marquis Frazier DE 13 30.5 4.0% 4.5 3.5 1 1
Torlan Pittman NT 6'1, 295 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 26.0 3.4% 6 1
Margus Hunt DE 6'8, 295 Sr. NR 13 22.0 2.9% 7.5 3 1
Aaron Davis NT 6'3, 275 Sr. NR 12 20.0 2.6% 3.5 2 1
Szymon Czerniak DE 13 8.0 1.1% 0.5
Beau Barnes DE 6'5, 238 So. NR 7 3.0 0.4% 1 0.5

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Taylor Reed MIKE 6'0, 230 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 78.5 10.4% 9.5 4 3 1 1
Ja'Gared Davis WILL 6'1, 225 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 63.5 8.4% 12 5.5 2 6 2 1
Cameron Rogers BUCK 6'0, 230 Sr. NR 13 50.5 6.7% 2
Randall Joyner SAM 5'10, 228 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 31.5 4.2% 2.5 1 1 2
Kevin Pope MIKE 5'10, 225 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 26.5 3.5% 1 1 1
Victor Jones LB 6'1, 230 Sr. ** (5.4) 8 20.0 2.6% 1
Stephon Sanders SAM 6'3, 230 So. *** (5.6) 12 18.5 2.4% 5.5 3 1 5
Uchenna Nwabuike LB 6'1, 225 So. ** (5.4) 9 5.5 0.7% 1 1
Lincoln Richard LB 6'3, 215 Fr. *** (5.6)

Damien Neroes LB 6'1, 215 Fr. *** (5.6)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Chris Banjo FS 12 66.0 8.7% 0.5 2 2
Kenneth Acker CB 6'0, 195 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 56.0 7.4% 1 1 4
Ryan Smith SS 5'11, 200 Sr. ** (5.3) 11 50.5 6.7% 1 4
Richard Crawford CB 13 39.0 5.2% 2.5 2 13 1
Justin Sorrell SS 13 24.0 3.2% 0.5 3 1
Jay Scott FS 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 17.5 2.3% 1 1
Cody Worthen DB 5'11, 205 Sr. NR 10 7.0 0.9% 0.5 0.5
Daniel Roundtree DB 6'2, 210 Jr. *** (5.5)


Shakiel Randolph DB 6'5, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)

Ty Law DB 5'10, 170 Fr. *** (5.5)


Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Matt Stone 6'1, 195 Sr. 56 37.7 2 9 16 44.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Mike Loftus 6'1, 204 So. 62 64.5 13 21.0%
Chase Hover 6'2, 190 Jr. 1 58 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Chase Hover 6'2, 190 Jr. 38-40 8-9 88.9% 0-1 0.0%
Brad Namdar 3-3 0-1 0.0% 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
J.R. Richardson KR 5'9, 175 So. 26 21.3 0
Der'rikk Thompson KR 5'11, 185 So. 4 18.5 0
Richard Crawford PR 16 11.8 1
Cole Beasley PR 3 6.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 81
Net Punting 103
Net Kickoffs 25
Touchback Pct 30
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 98
Punt Returns Avg 36

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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