2012 San Diego State Aztecs Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 68
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Cal Poly 49-21 W 26.8 - 29.3 L
10-Sep at Army 23-20 W 30.3 - 27.4 W
17-Sep Washington State 42-24 W 29.0 - 25.8 W
24-Sep at Michigan 7-28 L 24.4 - 28.0 L
8-Oct TCU 14-27 L 21.8 - 25.7 L
13-Oct at Air Force 41-27 W 29.9 - 24.4 W
29-Oct Wyoming 27-30 L 30.9 - 29.9 W
5-Nov New Mexico 35-7 W 27.7 - 21.0 W
12-Nov at Colorado State 18-15 W 21.3 - 25.4 L
19-Nov Boise State 35-52 L 33.9 - 27.6 W
26-Nov at UNLV 31-14 W 25.3 - 29.2 L
3-Dec Fresno State 35-28 W 28.2 - 24.9 W
17-Dec vs UL-Lafayette 30-32 L 28.1 - 30.6 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 29.8 46 25.0 57
Adj. Points Per Game 27.5 59 26.9 48

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Washington 59
8-Sep Army 95
15-Sep North Dakota NR
22-Sep San Jose State 110
29-Sep at Fresno State 81
6-Oct Hawaii 93
13-Oct Colorado State 102
20-Oct at Nevada 63
27-Oct UNLV 119
3-Nov at Boise State 39
10-Nov Air Force 103
24-Nov at Wyoming 108
Five-Year F/+ Rk 91
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 82
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +12 / +12.6
TO Luck/Game -0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (6, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 32 92 105 71
RUSHING 30 76 90 61
PASSING 49 89 107 81
Standard Downs 81 98 62
Passing Downs 97 92 98
Redzone 105 108 100
Q1 Rk 100 1st Down Rk 85
Q2 Rk 110 2nd Down Rk 99
Q3 Rk 42 3rd Down Rk 64
Q4 Rk 63
Adj. Line Yards Rk 82
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 11

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ryan Lindley 237 447 3,153 53.0% 23 8 11 2.4% 6.7
Adam Dingwell 6'4, 205 So. ** (5.4) 0 1 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0
Ryan Katz (2010^) 6'1, 215 Sr. *** (5.6) 213 355 2,401 60.0% 18 11 33 8.5% 5.6
Matt Morin 6'2, 217 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Katz is an Oregon State transfer who will be eligible this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Ronnie Hillman RB 311 1,711 5.5 2.3 19 +5.3
Walter Kazee RB 5'9, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 74 339 4.6 1.6 4 -1.8
Adam Muema RB 5'10, 190 So. *** (5.6) 42 253 6.0 3.2 3 +4.1
Chad Young FB 5'11, 225 Jr. NR 16 43 2.7 0.3 2 +0.3
Brandon Wright RB 5'11, 185 RSFr. *** (5.7)



De'Saan Hardwick RB 5'9, 175 RSFr. *** (5.5)





Chase Price RB 5'8, 200 RSFr. ** (5.4)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Colin Lockett WR-X 6'0, 175 Jr. ** (5.1) 118 58 972 49.2% 27.6% 57.6% 5.3
Gavin Escobar TE 6'6, 245 Jr. ** (5.2) 85 51 780 60.0% 19.9% 44.7% 8.0
Dylan Denso WR-Z 6'2, 210 Jr. NR 80 49 634 61.3% 18.7% 51.3% 7.3
Ronnie Hillman RB 42 24 270 57.1% 9.8% 69.0% 5.5
Marcus Russell WR-X 28 13 150 46.4% 6.6% 50.0% 2.2
Brice Butler^ WR-X 6'3, 195 Sr. **** (6.0) 19 12 150 63.2% 4.4% 68.4% 9.2
Bryce Quigley^^ TE


18 9 64 50.0% 4.2% 38.9% 1.7
Chad Young FB 5'11, 225 Jr. NR 15 11 63 73.3% 3.5% 46.7% 3.9
Alston Umuolo TE 14 8 82 57.1% 3.3% 57.1% 4.3
Walter Kazee RB 5'9, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 11 8 89 72.7% 2.6% 54.5% 8.3
Osmond Nicholas WR-Z 6'3, 215 Jr. ** (5.4) 10 3 46 30.0% 2.3% 70.0% -1.2
Tim Vizzi WR 5'10, 180 Jr. ** (5.3)






Ezell Ruffin WR-Z 6'1, 200 So. ** (5.4)






Jemond Hazely WR-X 6'1, 170 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Aaron Boesch TE 6'4, 230 Jr. *** (5.5)






^ Butler is a USC transfer who will immediately be eligible this fall.
^^ Quigley moved to left tackle this spring.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Tommie Draheim LT 33 career starts, 2011 1st All-MWC
Alec Johnson C 6'3, 300 Sr. ** (5.4) 29 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MWC
Nik Embernate RG 6'4, 300 Sr. ** (5.2) 33 career starts
Kurtis Gunther RT 27 career starts
Emilio Rivera LG 15 career starts
Mike Matamua RT 8 career starts
Riley Gauld RG 6'5, 310 Sr. ** (5.3) 1 career start
Garrett Corbett LT 6'5, 290 So. ** (5.4)
Japheth Gordon LG 6'3, 290 Jr. NR
Jimmy Miller C 6'3, 290 Sr. *** (5.5)
Bryce Quigley LT 6'5, 260 Jr. *** (5.5)
Zack Dilley RT 6'5, 285 So. *** (5.6)
Justin Aysse OL 6'5, 285 Jr. ** (5.4)
Nico Siragusa OL 6'6, 300 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 68 48 38 56
RUSHING 78 58 51 69
PASSING 55 37 33 40
Standard Downs 19 22 20
Passing Downs 95 87 97
Redzone 82 53 96
Q1 Rk 101 1st Down Rk 12
Q2 Rk 83 2nd Down Rk 43
Q3 Rk 8 3rd Down Rk 101
Q4 Rk 7
Adj. Line Yards Rk 48
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 15

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jerome Long DT 13 61.5 8.5% 8 5 1
Larry Gibbs DE 13 29.5 4.1% 6.5 2 2
J.J. Autele DE 11 24.0 3.3% 4 1
Jordan Thomas DE 6'1, 245 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 17.0 2.4% 3
Dontrell Onuoha DE 6'2, 250 So. *** (5.6) 7 11.5 1.6% 2 1
Cody Galea DE 6'3, 255 So. ** (5.4) 9 4.0 0.6% 2 1
Frederick Trujillo DE 6'1, 230 Sr. NR 3 4.0 0.6% 1 1 1
Sam Meredith DT 6'4, 250 So. *** (5.5) 12 4.0 0.6% 1
Everett Beed DE 6'3, 245 So. *** (5.5) 1 1.5 0.2% 1 1
Teddy Queen DE 6'2, 235 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Miles Burris OLB 13 62.0 8.6% 19.5 8 1 3
Jake Fely MLB 5'10, 200 So. *** (5.5) 13 44.0 6.1% 5.5 1.5 3
Nick Tenhaeff OLB 6'2, 225 Jr. ** (5.1) 13 39.5 5.5% 1.5 1 1
Logan Ketchum LB 8 30.5 4.2% 4.5 1.5 2 1 1
Demetrius Barksdale OLB 13 26.5 3.7% 4.5 3 1 1 2
Vaness Harris OLB 6'2, 255 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 19.0 2.6% 4.5 2
Rob Andrews MLB 6'2, 225 Sr. ** (5.2) 4 13.5 1.9% 1 1 1
Josh Gavert OLB 6'2, 210 So. *** (5.5) 13 6.5 0.9% 2 2
Andrew Feaster OLB 6'0, 210 So. NR 5 1.0 0.1%

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Larry Parker CB 13 57.0 7.9% 2.5 7 9 3 1
Nat Berhe AZTEC 5'10, 185 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 55.0 7.6% 3.5 2 5 1
Leon McFadden CB 5'10, 185 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 40.5 5.6% 3 1 2 15
Rene Siluano AZTEC 5'10, 185 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 29.5 4.1% 1 1 2 1 1
Gabe Lemon WAR 5'10, 185 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 27.0 3.7% 1 5
Josh Wade (2010^) CB 6'0, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 19.5 2.6% 1.5 1 3
Eric Pinkins WAR 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 19.0 2.6% 1.5 1
Marcus Andrews WAR 6'0, 190 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 17.5 2.4% 1 1 1 1 1
Dey Juan Hemmings WAR 11 16.5 2.3% 1 3
Khalid Stevens AZTEC 9 11.0 1.5% 1
King Holder CB 5'10, 150 So. ** (5.4) 13 10.5 1.5% 2
Mahbu Keels CB 6'1, 160 So. *** (5.5)
Darius Guillory AZTEC 5'10, 180 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Pierre Romain CB 5'8, 140 RSFr. NR

^ Wade missed the 2011 season with injury.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brian Stahovich 61 43.8 11 23 17 65.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Abelardo Perez 70 68 24 34.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Abelardo Perez 47-49 5-10 50.0% 1-5 20.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Colin Lockett KR 6'0, 175 Jr. 31 21.9 1
Brandon Davis KR 18 22.7 1
Leon McFadden PR 5'10, 185 Sr. 12 5.8 0
Larry Parker PR 10 4.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 70
Net Punting 37
Net Kickoffs 22
Touchback Pct 8
Field Goal Pct 118
Kick Returns Avg 81
Punt Returns Avg 101

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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