2012 Rice Owls Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 98
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Texas 9-34 L 23.8 - 32.1 L
10-Sep Purdue 24-22 W 25.7 - 27.5 L
24-Sep at Baylor 31-56 L 25.3 - 30.0 L
1-Oct at Southern Miss 24-48 L 24.1 - 31.9 L
8-Oct Memphis 28-6 W 21.8 - 26.1 L
15-Oct at Marshall 20-24 L 26.7 - 30.0 L
22-Oct Tulsa 20-38 L 22.8 - 28.9 L
27-Oct at Houston 34-73 L 30.2 - 31.2 L
5-Nov UTEP 41-37 W 30.9 - 33.0 L
12-Nov at Northwestern 6-28 L 23.4 - 29.3 L
19-Nov Tulane 19-7 W 20.8 - 25.1 L
26-Nov at SMU 24-27 L 19.4 - 28.6 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 23.3 85 33.3 99
Adj. Points Per Game 24.6 105 29.5 90

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep UCLA 58
8-Sep at Kansas 105
15-Sep at Louisiana Tech 52
22-Sep Marshall 94
29-Sep vs Houston 29
6-Oct at Memphis 117
13-Oct UT-San Antonio 109
20-Oct at Tulsa 47
27-Oct Southern Miss 46
3-Nov at Tulane 111
17-Nov SMU 65
24-Nov at UTEP 104
Five-Year F/+ Rk 103
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 80
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +8 / +4.4
TO Luck/Game 1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (5, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 91 103 98 109
RUSHING 67 97 72 106
PASSING 82 105 105 99
Standard Downs 105 86 109
Passing Downs 95 105 72
Redzone 42 72 31
Q1 Rk 98 1st Down Rk 69
Q2 Rk 109 2nd Down Rk 111
Q3 Rk 89 3rd Down Rk 101
Q4 Rk 78
Adj. Line Yards Rk 90
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 75

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nick Fanuzzi 112 193 1,123 58.0% 7 2 10 4.9% 5.1
Taylor McHargue 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 100 174 1,072 57.5% 8 5 11 5.9% 5.4
Driphus Jackson 6'0, 200 RSFr. *** (5.6)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Tyler Smith RB 155 860 5.5 2.2 5 -2.1
Turner Petersen RB 6'2, 220 Jr. ** (5.2) 102 485 4.8 1.8 5 -0.6
Taylor McHargue QB 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 71 203 2.9 1.8 0 -16.9
Sam McGuffie RB 5'10, 200 Sr. **** (5.8) 38 158 4.2 1.5 1 -4.4
Nick Fanuzzi QB 32 151 4.7 1.8 0 -1.8
Jeremy Eddington RB 6'2, 230 Jr. *** (5.6) 25 62 2.5 1.1 2 -2.3
Charles Ross RB 6'1, 230 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 49 4.1 0.9 0 -1.1
Broderick Jackson RB 5'10, 210 Sr. ** (5.2)
Brandon Hamilton RB 5'11, 214 Fr. *** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Vance McDonald WR 6'5, 260 Sr. NR 78 44 541 56.4% 21.1% 61.5% 5.3
Luke Willson TE 6'5, 250 Sr. ** (4.9) 50 29 313 58.0% 13.6% 70.0% 5.2
Tyler Smith RB 52 39 309 75.0% 14.1% 61.5% 6.1
Randy Kitchens WR 34 16 177 47.1% 9.2% 55.9% 2.6
Mario Hull WR 6'1, 205 So. *** (5.5) 32 17 181 53.1% 8.7% 46.9% 3.6
Andre Gautreaux WR 6'0, 195 Jr. ** (5.2) 23 14 177 60.9% 6.2% 60.9% 6.6
Donte Moore WR 6'0, 180 Jr. ** (5.1) 24 13 109 54.2% 6.5% 54.2% 3.3
Taylor Cook TE 6'7, 255 Sr. ** (5.4) 17 8 133 47.1% 4.6% 76.5% 4.2
Jordan Taylor WR 6'5, 210 So. ** (5.4) 14 9 69 64.3% 3.8% 50.0% 4.2
Sam McGuffie RB 5'10, 200 Sr. **** (5.8) 10 9 72 90.0% 2.7% 60.0% 8.4
Lovett Gibson WR 6'2, 195 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Dennis Parks WR 6'2, 183 Fr. *** (5.5)
Reid Mitchell TE 6'3, 233 Fr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Davon Allen LG 33 career starts
Jake Hicks LT 41 career starts
Tyler Parish RT 32 career starts
Keshawn Carrington C 25 career starts
Eric Ball C 19 career starts
Drew Carroll RG 6'4, 280 So. ** (5.3) 10 career starts
Jon Hodde RT 6'7, 300 Jr. ** (5.2) 4 career starts
Ian Gray LG 6'8, 320 So. ** (5.4) 1 career start
Justin Warren OL 6'3, 295 So. ** (5.4)
Nate Richards OL 6'4, 305 Jr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 111 77 71 82
RUSHING 88 87 104 64
PASSING 112 70 31 86
Standard Downs 84 71 85
Passing Downs 80 60 88
Redzone 69 43 79
Q1 Rk 53 1st Down Rk 66
Q2 Rk 98 2nd Down Rk 101
Q3 Rk 79 3rd Down Rk 76
Q4 Rk 89
Adj. Line Yards Rk 87
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 87

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Scott Solomon DE 12 46.0 6.8% 13.5 8.5 1 1 2
Jared Williams DE 6'2, 250 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 26.5 3.9% 6 1 1 1
Michael Smith DT 12 18.5 2.7% 4 1 2
Dylan Klare DE 6'2, 270 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 18.0 2.7% 1 1
Hosam Shahin DT 6'3, 290 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 15.5 2.3% 2.5 1
John Gioffre NT 12 14.5 2.1% 2 1.5
Cody Bauer (2010^) DE 6'4, 255 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 13.5 2.0%
Jamael Thomas DT 6'0, 270 Sr. NR 11 5.5 0.8% 2 1
Brian Stacey DT 12 5.0 0.7% 1 1
Zach Patt DE 6'2, 230 So. ** (5.2) 9 3.0 0.4% 2
Cody Henessee DT 6'3, 263 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Bauer missed 2011 with injury but is expected to be healthy this fall.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Cameron Nwosu SLB 5'10, 235 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 83.0 12.3% 6 1 1 2 2
Justin Allen WLB 12 77.0 11.4% 10.5 2.5 3
Trey Briggs (2010^) LB 6'1, 235 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 39.5 4.3% 1
1 1
Matt Nordstrom LB 12 21.0 3.1% 1
Kyle Prater LB 6'1, 230 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 14.0 2.1% 1
Tolu Akinwumi LB
12 3.5 0.5% 1 1
Alex Lyons LB 6'0, 220 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Briggs missed 2011 with injury but is expected to be healthy this fall.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Paul Porras S 6'1, 195 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 77.5 11.5% 5 1 2 8 2
Xavier Webb S 12 55.0 8.1% 1 2 5 3 1
Corey Frazier S 6'1, 210 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 34.0 5.0% 3 1 2 1
Tanner Leland S 6'2, 220 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 34.0 5.0% 2 1
Bryce Callahan CB 5'10, 180 So. *** (5.5) 12 30.0 4.4% 2.5 0.5 6 9
Chris Jammer CB 11 22.0 3.3% 2 3
Jaylon Finner S 5'10, 195 So. *** (5.6) 12 17.5 2.6% 1 2
Phillip Gaines CB 6'1, 185 Sr. ** (5.4) 4 9.5 1.4% 2 1 2
Denzel Wells S 12 9.5 1.4% 3
Malcolm Hill CB 5'11, 185 So. ** (5.4) 12 7.5 1.1% 1 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kyle Martens 78 43.6 7 27 25 66.7%
Chris Boswell 6'2, 210 Jr. 1 38.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chris Boswell 6'2, 210 Jr. 59 63.1 14 23.7%
Kyle Martens 1 55 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Chris Boswell 6'2, 210 Jr. 31-32 9-10 90.0% 8-11 72.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jeremy Eddington KR 6'2, 230 Jr. 21 20.7 0
Charles Rose KR 6'1, 230 Sr. 8 22.1 0
Mario Hull PR 6'1, 205 So. 16 10.2 0
Bryce Callahan PR 5'10, 180 So. 4 8.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 17
Net Punting 11
Net Kickoffs 67
Touchback Pct 25
Field Goal Pct 24
Kick Returns Avg 106
Punt Returns Avg 54

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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