2012 Purdue Boilermakers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 73
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Middle Tennessee 27-24 W 25.9 - 30.4 L
10-Sep at Rice 22-24 L 23.8 - 29.6 L
17-Sep SE Missouri State 59-0 W 36.3 - 17.0 W
1-Oct Notre Dame 10-38 L 23.5 - 31.8 L
8-Oct Minnesota 45-17 W 26.1 - 25.5 W
15-Oct at Penn State 18-23 L 28.1 - 30.4 L
22-Oct Illinois 21-14 W 27.6 - 27.1 W
29-Oct at Michigan 14-36 L 28.1 - 30.5 L
5-Nov at Wisconsin 17-62 L 24.2 - 30.4 L
12-Nov Ohio State 26-23 W 29.8 - 26.5 W
19-Nov Iowa 21-31 L 23.8 - 28.5 L
26-Nov at Indiana 33-25 W 24.7 - 30.9 L
27-Dec Western Michigan 37-32 W 27.4 - 26.0 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.9 60 26.8 63
Adj. Points Per Game 26.9 72 28.0 65

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Eastern Kentucky NR
8-Sep at Notre Dame 11
15-Sep Eastern Michigan 91
29-Sep Marshall 94
6-Oct Michigan 12
13-Oct Wisconsin 18
20-Oct at Ohio State 20
27-Oct at Minnesota 96
3-Nov Penn State 37
10-Nov at Iowa 43
17-Nov at Illinois 51
24-Nov Indiana 98
Five-Year F/+ Rk 67
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 75
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +1 / +0.3
TO Luck/Game 0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 71 89 92 84
RUSHING 33 80 94 62
PASSING 83 88 77 96
Standard Downs 66 81 56
Passing Downs 74 53 82
Redzone 46 47 54
Q1 Rk 70 1st Down Rk 65
Q2 Rk 86 2nd Down Rk 64
Q3 Rk 76 3rd Down Rk 83
Q4 Rk 36
Adj. Line Yards Rk 94
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 74

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Caleb TerBush 6'5, 225 Sr. NR 171 277 1,905 61.7% 13 6 21 7.0% 6.1
Robert Marve 6'1, 211 Sr. **** (5.8) 61 109 633 56.0% 4 5 6 5.2% 5.1
Rob Henry (2010^) 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 86 162 996 53.1% 8 7 3 1.8% 5.8
Robert Gregory 6'3, 181 Fr. *** (5.7)








^ Henry missed 2011 with a torn ACL.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Ralph Bolden RB 5'9, 190 Sr. *** (5.6) 148 674 4.6 1.7 6 -1.5
Akeem Shavers RB 5'11, 203 Sr. ** (5.4) 111 519 4.7 1.8 6 +3.9
Rob Henry (2010) QB 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 101 563 5.6 2.3 4 +2.3
Caleb TerBush QB 6'5, 225 Sr. NR 62 317 5.1 2.0 1 +1.0
Akeem Hunt RB 5'9, 175 So. *** (5.5) 32 279 8.7 4.9 2 +3.8
Antavian Edison WR 5'11, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 30 124 4.1 1.1 2 +0.4
Jared Crank FB 29 106 3.7 0.8 0 -3.0
Robert Marve QB 6'1, 211 Sr. **** (5.8) 23 93 4.0 1.2 1 -1.8
Reggie Pegram RB 22 109 5.0 1.2 1 +1.2
Raheem Mostert WR 5'11, 180 So. *** (5.6) 16 108 6.8 2.6 2 +3.7
Justin Siller WR 15 81 5.4 2.2 1 +1.3

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Justin Siller WR 81 50 485 61.7% 22.1% 54.3% 5.1
Antavian Edison WR 5'11, 175 Sr. ** (4.9) 71 44 584 62.0% 19.4% 52.1% 7.1
O.J. Ross WR 48 33 356 68.8% 13.1% 54.2% 7.3
Gary Bush WR 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 42 29 310 69.0% 11.5% 59.5% 7.1
Crosby Wright TE 6'3, 248 Sr. NR 30 16 223 53.3% 8.2% 66.7% 5.2
Waynelle Gravesande WR 24 18 177 75.0% 6.6% 45.8% 8.6
Ralph Bolden RB 5'9, 190 Sr. ** (4.9) 24 13 129 54.2% 6.6% 45.8% 5.2
Gabe Holmes TE 6'5, 247 Jr. *** (5.6) 17 11 133 64.7% 4.6% 41.2% 7.1
Akeem Shavers RB 5'11, 203 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 5 46 41.7% 3.3% 41.7% 1.0
Reggie Pegram RB 9 8 59 88.9% 2.5% 66.7% 8.2
Ishmael Aristide WR 5'11, 199 Jr. ** (5.3)
Charles Torwudzo WR 6'4, 214 So. *** (5.6)
Raheem Mostert WR 5'11, 180 So. *** (5.6)
Shane Mikesky WR 6'4, 197 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Carlos Carvajal TE 6'7, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Cameron Posey WR 6'2, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Dennis Kelly LT 37 career starts
Nick Mondek RG 25 career starts
Peters Drey LG 6'6, 310 Sr. *** (5.6) 20 career starts
Rick Schmeig C 6'3, 320 Sr. ** (5.4) 16 career starts
Trevor Foy LT 6'7, 287 Jr. ** (5.4) 9 career starts
James Shepherd LG 5 career starts
Justin Kitchens RT 6'4, 275 Jr. ** (5.3) 4 career starts
Kevin Pamphile LG 6'5, 290 Jr. ** (4.9)
Cody Davis C 6'5, 286 Jr. ** (5.3)
Eric McDaniel RG 6'2, 285 Jr. *** (5.6)
Jack DeBoef RT 6'7, 265 So. *** (5.6)
Devin Smith OL 6'7, 315 Jr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 73 71 83 67
RUSHING 82 63 67 58
PASSING 53 81 94 75
Standard Downs 71 82 69
Passing Downs 44 39 45
Redzone 22 38 17
Q1 Rk 67 1st Down Rk 80
Q2 Rk 62 2nd Down Rk 44
Q3 Rk 80 3rd Down Rk 66
Q4 Rk 46
Adj. Line Yards Rk 31
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 83

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kawann Short NG 6'3, 310 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 41.0 5.6% 17 6.5 2 1 1
Gerald Gooden DE 13 26.0 3.6% 9 3 2 1
Ryan Russell DE 6'5, 264 So. ** (5.4) 13 25.5 3.5% 4.5 1 3 3
Bruce Gaston DT 6'2, 303 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 19.5 2.7% 7 3 2 1
Brandon Taylor DT 6'1, 280 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 12.0 1.6% 2.5 1 1
Robert Maci DE 6'4, 241 Sr. ** (5.4) 5 9.0 1.2% 4 2 1
Ryan Isaac DT 6'5, 260 Jr. *** (5.6) 8 5.5 0.8% 1 1
Adam Brockman DE 13 3.0 0.4% 0.5
Eric Mebane DE 6'3, 225 Sr. ** (5.4) 2 1.0 0.1%
Greg Latta DE 6'6, 265 Jr. *** (5.5)
Ryan Watson DE 6'3, 270 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Joe Holland LB 13 73.0 10.0% 10.5 1.5 1 8
Dwayne Beckford LB 13 68.5 9.4% 7 3 1 4 1
Will Lucas LB 5'11, 226 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 64.0 8.8% 10 1 1 2 2
Chris Carlino LB 13 21.0 2.9% 1 1
Joe Gilliam LB 6'1, 211 So. *** (5.6) 11 5.0 0.7%
Nnamdi Ezenwa LB 6'2, 225 Sr. ** (5.3) 5 4.5 0.6%
Jalani Phillips LB 6'4, 255 So. ** (5.2) 5 2.0 0.3%
Mike Lee LB 6'2, 220 So. ** (5.4) 1 0.5 0.1%
Antwon Higgs LB 6'3, 254 Sr. *** (5.6)

Armstead Williams LB 6'3, 210 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ricardo Allen CB 5'9, 176 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 71.5 9.8% 3 3 4 1
Albert Evans FS 13 62.5 8.6% 2.5 2 4
Josh Johnson CB 5'11, 195 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 55.5 7.6% 4.5 2 9 1
Logan Link SS 13 42.0 5.8% 2
Max Charlot FS 6'0, 190 Sr. NR 13 30.5 4.2% 2
Landon Feichter SS 6'0, 178 So. NR 13 23.5 3.2% 1
Normondo Harris CB 6'0, 180 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 19.5 2.7% 1
Taylor Richards SS 5'10, 180 So. *** (5.6) 10 5.0 0.7% 1
E.J. Johnson S 6'1, 175 So. *** (5.6) 4 2.5 0.3%
Charlton Williams CB 3 2.0 0.3%
Frankie Williams CB 5'9, 180 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Cody Webster 6'1, 205 Jr. 45 42.9 0 6 11 37.8%
Carson Wiggs 23 35.0 2 11 17 121.7%^
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Carson Wiggs 71 65.5 24 33.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Carson Wiggs 39-40 12-14 85.7% 7-11 63.6%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Raheem Mostert KR 5'11, 180 So. 25 33.5 1
O.J. Ross KR 9 22.4 0
Akeem Hunt KR 5'9, 175 So. 7 24.7 0
Waynelle Gravesande PR 22 5.9 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 10
Net Punting 30
Net Kickoffs 45
Touchback Pct 9
Field Goal Pct 39
Kick Returns Avg 1
Punt Returns Avg 90

^ Since a punt can be both fair-caught and downed inside the 20, it is possible for this number to go over 100.0%. But it is rare.

---

Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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